Tensor decomposition is a fundamental framework to analyze data that can be represented by multi-dimensional arrays. In practice, tensor data is often accompanied by temporal information, namely the time points when the entry values were generated. This information implies abundant, complex temporal variation patterns. However, current methods always assume the factor representations of the entities in each tensor mode are static, and never consider their temporal evolution. To fill this gap, we propose NONparametric FActor Trajectory learning for dynamic tensor decomposition (NONFAT). We place Gaussian process (GP) priors in the frequency domain and conduct inverse Fourier transform via Gauss-Laguerre quadrature to sample the trajectory functions. In this way, we can overcome data sparsity and obtain robust trajectory estimates across long time horizons. Given the trajectory values at specific time points, we use a second-level GP to sample the entry values and to capture the temporal relationship between the entities. For efficient and scalable inference, we leverage the matrix Gaussian structure in the model, introduce a matrix Gaussian posterior, and develop a nested sparse variational learning algorithm. We have shown the advantage of our method in several real-world applications.
Is Flow Matching Just Trajectory Replay for Sequential Data?
Department of Mathematics（数学系）；Nordita KTH Royal Institute of Technology and Stockholm University（KTH皇家理工学院与斯德哥尔摩大学联合研究所）；Department of Statistics（统计系）；International Computer Science Institute（国际计算机科学研究所）；Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory（伯克利国家实验室）
University of Oxford（牛津大学）；Novo Nordisk（诺和诺德）；University College London（伦敦大学学院）
Bayesian methods are a popular choice for statistical inference in small-data regimes due to the regularization effect induced by the prior. In the context of density estimation, the standard nonparametric Bayesian approach is to target the posterior predictive of the Dirichlet process mixture model. In general, direct estimation of the posterior predictive is intractable and so methods typically resort to approximating the posterior distribution as an intermediate step. The recent development of quasi-Bayesian predictive copula updates, however, has made it possible to perform tractable predi…
KTH Royal Institute of Technology（瑞典皇家理工学院）；University of Pennsylvania（宾夕法尼亚大学）
Given a single trajectory of a dynamical system, we analyze the performance of the nonparametric least squares estimator (LSE). More precisely, we give nonasymptotic expected $l^2$-distance bounds between the LSE and the true regression function, where expectation is evaluated on a fresh, counterfactual, trajectory. We leverage recently developed information-theoretic methods to establish the optimality of the LSE for nonparametric hypotheses classes in terms of supremum norm metric entropy and a subgaussian parameter. Next, we relate this subgaussian parameter to the stability of the underlyi…
Inferring the laws of interaction between particles and agents in complex dynamical systems from observational data is a fundamental challenge in a wide variety of disciplines. We propose a non-parametric statistical learning approach to estimate the governing laws of distance-based interactions, with no reference or assumption about their analytical form, from data consisting trajectories of interacting agents. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our learning approach both by providing theoretical guarantees, and by testing the approach on a variety of prototypical systems in various discipli…
Recently, there has been a surge of interest in using spectral methods for estimating latent variable models. However, it is usually assumed that the distribution of the observations conditioned on the latent variables is either discrete or belongs to a parametric family. In this paper, we study the estimation of an $m$-state hidden Markov model (HMM) with only smoothness assumptions, such as Hölderian conditions, on the emission densities. By leveraging some recent advances in continuous linear algebra and numerical analysis, we develop a computationally efficient spectral algorithm for learn…
The Koopman operator is a mathematical tool that allows for a linear description of non-linear systems, but working in infinite dimensional spaces. Dynamic Mode Decomposition and Extended Dynamic Mode Decomposition are amongst the most popular finite dimensional approximation. In this paper we capture their core essence as a dual version of the same framework, incorporating them into the Kernel framework. To do so, we leverage the RKHS as a suitable space for learning the Koopman dynamics, thanks to its intrinsic finite-dimensional nature, shaped by data. We finally establish a strong link bet…
This work analyzes the solution trajectory of gradient-based algorithms via a novel basis function decomposition. We show that, although solution trajectories of gradient-based algorithms may vary depending on the learning task, they behave almost monotonically when projected onto an appropriate orthonormal function basis. Such projection gives rise to a basis function decomposition of the solution trajectory. Theoretically, we use our proposed basis function decomposition to establish the convergence of gradient descent (GD) on several representative learning tasks. In particular, we improve …
Purdue University（普渡大学）；IBM T. J. Watson Research Center（IBM T·J·沃森研究中心）
Infinite Tucker Decomposition (InfTucker) and random function prior models, as nonparametric Bayesian models on infinite exchangeable arrays, are more powerful models than widely-used multilinear factorization methods including Tucker and PARAFAC decomposition, (partly) due to their capability of modeling nonlinear relationships between array elements. Despite their great predictive performance and sound theoretical foundations, they cannot handle massive data due to a prohibitively high training time. To overcome this limitation, we present Distributed Infinite Tucker (DINTUCKER), a large-sca…
Technische Universität Berlin（柏林工业大学）；Machine Learning Group（机器学习组）
While nonparametric density estimators often perform well on low dimensional data, their performance can suffer when applied to higher dimensional data, owing presumably to the curse of dimensionality. One technique for avoiding this is to assume no dependence between features and that the data are sampled from a separable density. This allows one to estimate each marginal distribution independently thereby avoiding the slow rates associated with estimating the full joint density. This is a strategy employed in naive Bayes models and is analogous to estimating a rank-one tensor. In this paper …
We propose a decomposition method for the spectral peaks in an observed frequency spectrum, which is efficiently acquired by utilizing the Fast Fourier Transform. In contrast to the traditional methods of waveform fitting on the spectrum, we optimize the problem from a more robust perspective. We model the peaks in spectrum as pseudo-symmetric functions, where the only constraint is a nonincreasing behavior around a central frequency when the distance increases. Our approach is more robust against arbitrary distortion, interference and noise on the spectrum that may be caused by an observation…
Some challenging problems in tracking multiple objects include the time-dependent cardinality, unordered measurements and object parameter labeling. In this paper, we employ Bayesian Bayesian nonparametric methods to address these challenges. In particular, we propose modeling the multiple object parameter state prior using the dependent Dirichlet and Pitman-Yor processes. These nonparametric models have been shown to be more flexible and robust, when compared to existing methods, for estimating the time-varying number of objects, providing object labeling and identifying measurement to object…
Google Research（谷歌研究院）；Harvard University（哈佛大学）；Columbia University（哥伦比亚大学）
Ensemble learning is a standard approach to building machine learning systems that capture complex phenomena in real-world data. An important aspect of these systems is the complete and valid quantification of model uncertainty. We introduce a Bayesian nonparametric ensemble (BNE) approach that augments an existing ensemble model to account for different sources of model uncertainty. BNE augments a model's prediction and distribution functions using Bayesian nonparametric machinery. It has a theoretical guarantee in that it robustly estimates the uncertainty patterns in the data distribution, …
Spatio-temporal data is intrinsically high dimensional, so unsupervised modeling is only feasible if we can exploit structure in the process. When the dynamics are local in both space and time, this structure can be exploited by splitting the global field into many lower-dimensional "light cones". We review light cone decompositions for predictive state reconstruction, introducing three simple light cone algorithms. These methods allow for tractable inference of spatio-temporal data, such as full-frame video. The algorithms make few assumptions on the underlying process yet have good predictiv…
Dynamic Distribution Decomposition (DDD) was introduced in Taylor-King et. al. (PLOS Comp Biol, 2020) as a variation on Dynamic Mode Decomposition. In brief, by using basis functions over a continuous state space, DDD allows for the fitting of continuous-time Markov chains over these basis functions and as a result continuously maps between distributions. The number of parameters in DDD scales by the square of the number of basis functions; we reformulate the problem and restrict the method to compact basis functions which leads to the inference of sparse matrices only -- hence reducing the nu…
Tianjin University（天津大学）；Tencent（腾讯）；The Chinese University of Hong Kong（香港中文大学）
Value functions are crucial for model-free Reinforcement Learning (RL) to obtain a policy implicitly or guide the policy updates. Value estimation heavily depends on the stochasticity of environmental dynamics and the quality of reward signals. In this paper, we propose a two-step understanding of value estimation from the perspective of future prediction, through decomposing the value function into a reward-independent future dynamics part and a policy-independent trajectory return part. We then derive a practical deep RL algorithm from the above decomposition, consisting of a convolutional t…
Trajectory-Guided Tokenization of Complex CSI for Wi-Fi Sensing
Technische Universität Berlin（柏林工业大学）；Huawei Heisenberg Research Center (Munich)（华为海森堡研究中心（慕尼黑））；Huawei Technologies Co., Ltd., Shanghai, China（华为技术有限公司（上海））；Technical University of Munich（慕尼黑工业大学）
Normandie Univ（诺曼底大学）；UNICAEN（卡昂大学）；CNRS（法国国家科学研究中心）；Aix Marseille Université（艾克斯-马赛大学）；ENSAM（法国国立高等工程技术学校）；Université de Toulon（土伦大学）
The parsimonious Gaussian mixture models, which exploit an eigenvalue decomposition of the group covariance matrices of the Gaussian mixture, have shown their success in particular in cluster analysis. Their estimation is in general performed by maximum likelihood estimation and has also been considered from a parametric Bayesian prospective. We propose new Dirichlet Process Parsimonious mixtures (DPPM) which represent a Bayesian nonparametric formulation of these parsimonious Gaussian mixture models. The proposed DPPM models are Bayesian nonparametric parsimonious mixture models that allow to…
KU Leuven（鲁汶大学）；Shanghai Jiao Tong University（上海交通大学）；Nanjing University of Science and Technology（南京理工大学）；Hong Kong Polytechnic University（香港理工大学）；Tsinghua University（清华大学）
In this paper, we propose a data-adaptive non-parametric kernel learning framework in margin based kernel methods. In model formulation, given an initial kernel matrix, a data-adaptive matrix with two constraints is imposed in an entry-wise scheme. Learning this data-adaptive matrix in a formulation-free strategy enlarges the margin between classes and thus improves the model flexibility. The introduced two constraints are imposed either exactly (on small data sets) or approximately (on large data sets) in our model, which provides a controllable trade-off between model flexibility and complex…
Kernelized Advantage Estimation: From Nonparametric Statistics to LLM Reasoning
School of Management, University of Science and Technology of China（中国科学技术大学管理学院）；Department of Statistics, London School of Economics and Political Science（伦敦政治经济学院统计系）；School of Mathematics, University of Birmingham（伯明翰大学数学学院）；Academy of Mathematics and Systems Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences（中国科学院数学与系统科学研究院）；Department of Mathematics, Tsinghua University（清华大学数学系）
Nonparametric Sparse Online Learning of the Koopman Operator
Coordinated Science Laboratory, University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign（伊利诺伊大学厄巴纳-香槟分校协调科学实验室）；Department of Mathematics and Computer Science, Royal Military College of Canada（加拿大皇家军事学院数学与计算机科学系）；Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, University at Albany, SUNY（纽约州立大学水牛城大学电气与计算机工程系）；Applied Physics Labs, Johns Hopkins University（约翰霍普金斯大学应用物理实验室）；Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, Coordinated Science Laboratory, University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign（伊利诺伊大学厄巴纳-香槟分校电气与计算机工程系，协调科学实验室）
Random Fourier features provide a way to tackle large-scale machine learning problems with kernel methods. Their slow Monte Carlo convergence rate has motivated the research of deterministic Fourier features whose approximation error can decrease exponentially in the number of basis functions. However, due to their tensor product extension to multiple dimensions, these methods suffer heavily from the curse of dimensionality, limiting their applicability to one, two or three-dimensional scenarios. In our approach we overcome said curse of dimensionality by exploiting the tensor product structur…
A multi-way factor analysis model is introduced for tensor-variate data of any order. Each data item is represented as a (sparse) sum of Kruskal decompositions, a Kruskal-factor analysis (KFA). KFA is nonparametric and can infer both the tensor-rank of each dictionary atom and the number of dictionary atoms. The model is adapted for online learning, which allows dictionary learning on large data sets. After KFA is introduced, the model is extended to a deep convolutional tensor-factor analysis, supervised by a Bayesian SVM. The experiments section demonstrates the improvement of KFA over vecto…
Inverse Reinforcement Learning via Nonparametric Spatio-Temporal Subgoal Modeling
Signal Processing Group（信号处理组）；Institute for Robotics and Cognitive Systems（机器人与认知系统研究所）；Autonomous Systems Labs（自主系统实验室）；Bioinspired Communication Systems（生物启发通信系统）
Learning interacting particle systems from unlabeled data
Department of Applied Mathematics and Statistics and Department of Physics and Astronomy, Johns Hopkins University（约翰霍普金斯大学应用数学与统计学系和物理与天文学系）；Department of Mathematics, Johns Hopkins University（约翰霍普金斯大学数学系）
