经济限制对载人深空探测计划时间框架的影响
Impact of Economic Constraints on the Projected Timeframe for Human-Crewed Deep Space Exploration
摘要：
深空探索为人类的发展和我们对宇宙的理解提供了最深刻的机会，但仍然极具挑战性。进展将继续由无人驾驶飞行任务来进行，随后是前往更远目的地的有人驾驶飞行任务。主要航天大国继续将载人深空探测作为一项重要的国家战略进行投资。改进模型的基础上，以前的工作，项目的最早可能的发射日期为人类载人任务从顺月空间到选定的目的地在太阳系和超越美国宇航局的历史预算趋势和深空探测研究的总体发展趋势。分析的目的是为火星以外的载人任务提供一个预计的时间框架。我们的研究结果表明，从航天国家或国际合作到小行星带和木星系统的第一次人类任务可能分别安排在~2071年至~2087年和~2101年至~2121年，而到土星系统的发射可能发生在~2132年，不确定窗口为~2129年至~2153年。
英文摘要：
Deep space exploration offers the most profound opportunity for the expansion of humanity and our understanding of the Universe, but remains extremely challenging. Progress will continue to be paced by uncrewed missions followed up by crewed missions to ever further destinations. Major space powers continue to invest in crewed deep space exploration as an important national strategy. An improved model based on previous work is developed, which projects the earliest possible launch dates for human-crewed missions from cis-lunar space to selected destinations in the Solar System and beyond based on NASA's historic budget trend and overall development trends of deep space exploration research. The purpose of the analysis is to provide a projected timeframe for crewed missions beyond Mars. Our findings suggest the first human missions from a spacefaring nation or international collaboration to the Asteroid Belt and Jovian System could be scheduled as soon as ~2071 to ~2087 and ~2101 to ~2121, respectively, while a launch to the Saturn System may occur by the year ~2132, with an uncertainty window of ~2129 to ~2153.
机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来，可能存在错误，请以论文正文为准。
