避免“大过滤器”：人类在世界外扩张的预计时间框架
Avoiding the "Great Filter": A Projected Timeframe for Human Expansion Off-World
摘要：
一个基础模型是根据从太空探索和计算能力的经验数据建立的趋势，通过太空时代的前六十多年来，该模型预测了从顺月空间到选定的太阳系和星际目的地的载人飞行任务的最早可能发射日期。该模型使用计算能力，表示为每个微处理器的晶体管，作为深空任务范围和复杂性的关键广泛限制因素。这项分析的目标是为人类通过外世界殖民成为一个多世界物种提供一个预计的时间框架，这样做几乎可以保证人类的长期生存，免受可能降临地球生命的自然和人为灾难的影响。随着第一批核武器在第二次世界大战结束时的开发和部署，人类进入了一个“危险之窗”，在强大的外世界殖民地成为现实之前，这个窗口不会安全关闭。我们的研究结果表明，第一次载人登陆火星的任务，选定的小行星带物体，以及木星和土星的选定卫星可能会在21世纪末之前发生。在23世纪发射载人星际任务到太阳系大约40光年内的系外行星目的地被认为是可能的，在24世纪末发射银河系内的任务。因此，积极和持续的太空探索计划，包括殖民化，被视为对人类长期生存的关键。
英文摘要：
A foundational model has been developed based on trends built from empirical data of space exploration and computing power through the first six plus decades of the Space Age which projects earliest possible launch dates for human-crewed missions from cis-lunar space to selected Solar System and interstellar destinations. The model uses computational power, expressed as transistors per microprocessor, as a key broadly limiting factor for deep space missions' reach and complexity. The goal of this analysis is to provide a projected timeframe for humanity to become a multi-world species through off-world colonization, and in so doing all but guarantees the long-term survival of the human race from natural and human-caused calamities that could befall life on Earth. Be-ginning with the development and deployment of the first nuclear weapons near the end of World War II, humanity entered a 'Window of Peril' which will not be safely closed until robust off-world colonies become a reality. Our findings suggest the first human-crewed missions to land on Mars, selected Asteroid Belt objects, and selected moons of Jupiter and Saturn can occur before the end of the 21st century. Launches of human-crewed interstellar missions to exoplanet destinations within roughly 40 lightyears of the Solar System are seen as possible during the 23rd century and launch of intragalactic missions by the end of the 24th century. An aggressive and sustained space exploration program, which includes colonization, is thus seen as critical to the long-term survival of the human race.
机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来，可能存在错误，请以论文正文为准。
