分析货币制度变迁的基本宏观经济主体模型
A basic macroeconomic agent-based model for analyzing monetary regime shifts
摘要：
在宏观经济学中，新兴的关于替代货币体系的讨论涉及先进金融体系中的系统性风险。为了建立一个更可持续的金融体系而进行的货币制度改革已经在几个欧洲议会进行了讨论，并在瑞士进行了全民公决。然而，它们在宏观金融稳定方面的效力和功效并不为人所知。本文介绍了一个基于宏观经济主体的模型（MABM）在一个新的模拟环境中模拟当前的货币制度，这可能是一个基础，实施和分析货币制度的转变。在这种情况下，货币体系影响银行的借贷潜力，并可能影响金融危机的动态。MABM注定要复制新兴的金融危机动态，分析金融体系内的制度变迁，从而衡量宏观金融稳定性。所使用的模拟环境使模型更容易获得，并有助于以不太复杂的方式探索不同假设和机制的影响。该模型复制了广泛的程式化经济事实，包括简化假设以降低模型复杂性。
英文摘要：
In macroeconomics, an emerging discussion of alternative monetary systems addresses the dimensions of systemic risk in advanced financial systems. Monetary regime changes with the aim of achieving a more sustainable financial system have already been discussed in several European parliaments and were the subject of a referendum in Switzerland. However, their effectiveness and efficacy concerning macro-financial stability are not well-known. This paper introduces a macroeconomic agent-based model (MABM) in a novel simulation environment to simulate the current monetary system, which may serve as a basis to implement and analyze monetary regime shifts. In this context, the monetary system affects the lending potential of banks and might impact the dynamics of financial crises. MABMs are predestined to replicate emergent financial crisis dynamics, analyze institutional changes within a financial system, and thus measure macro-financial stability. The used simulation environment makes the model more accessible and facilitates exploring the impact of different hypotheses and mechanisms in a less complex way. The model replicates a wide range of stylized economic facts, including simplifying assumptions to reduce model complexity.
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