宏观经济不稳定与财政分权：一个实证分析
Macroeconomic Instability And Fiscal Decentralization: An Empirical Analysis
摘要：
本文的主要目的是通过分析分权对宏观经济稳定的影响来填补文献中的一个关键空白。对关于权力下放的大量文献的调查表明，权力下放与宏观经济稳定之间的联系问题得到的分析相对较少。尽管就权力下放对经济其他方面的影响而言，仍有很大的分析余地，但我们认为，最需要进行更彻底的分析的正是这一领域。通过本文，我们将试图阐明这个问题，特别是通过观察宏观经济稳定的其他方面，而不是以前的研究中通常采用的那些方面，以及通过审查可能加强或减少权力下放对宏观经济稳定的影响的其他因素。我们的研究结果发现，权力下放似乎导致通货膨胀率下降。然而，我们没有发现权力下放与财政赤字水平之间的任何相关性。我们的研究结果还表明，权力下放对通货膨胀的影响是有条件的腐败和政治制度的水平。
英文摘要：
The main objective of this paper is to fill a critical gap in the literature by analyzing the effects of decentralization on the macroeconomic stability. A survey of the voluminous literature on decentralization suggests that the question of the links between decentralization and macroeconomic stability has been relatively scantily analyzed. Even though there is still a lot of room for analysis as far as the effects of decentralization on other aspects of the economy are concerned, we believe that it is in this area that a more thorough analyses are mostly called for. Through this paper, we will try to shed more light on the issue notably by looking at other dimension of macroeconomic stability than the ones usually employed in previous studies as well as by examining other factors that might accentuate or diminish the effects of decentralization on macroeconomic stability. Our results found that decentralization appears to lead to a decrease in inflation rate. However, we do not find any correlation between decentralization with the level of fiscal deficit. Our results also show that the impact of decentralization on inflation is conditional on the level of perceived corruption and political institutions.
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