实验室地震中的随机混沌与可预报性
Stochastic Chaos and Predictability in Laboratory Earthquakes
摘要：
实验室地震表现出低维随机吸引子的特征，其维数与天然慢地震相似。基于速率和状态相关摩擦的随机微分方程模型解释了实验室观测结果。我们研究了从稳定滑动到粘滑的过渡，发现非周期性行为可以用应力状态的小扰动来解释。摩擦的非线性性质放大了小尺度的扰动，降低了宏观动力学的可预测性。
英文摘要：
Laboratory earthquakes exhibit characteristics of a low dimensional random attractor with a dimension similar to that of natural slow earthquakes. A model of stochastic differential equations based on rate and state-dependent friction explains the laboratory observations. We study the transition from stable sliding to stickslip events and find that aperiodic behavior can be explained by small perturbations in the stress state. Friction's nonlinear nature amplifies small scale perturbations, reducing the predictability of the otherwise periodic macroscopic dynamics.
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