即时预报SDG指标的可行性：全面调查
Feasibility of nowcasting SDG indicators: a comprehensive survey
摘要：
《2030年议程》和伴随的可持续发展目标（SDG）对于指导国家和全球政策至关重要。然而，许多用于衡量这些目标进展的可持续发展目标指标都存在长期的出版滞后。即时预报有可能解决这一问题，并对这些指标作出更及时的估计。本文通过以下方式为实现这一潜力提供了资源：1）对所有可持续发展目标指标进行全面的即时预测可行性调查，以评估其即时预测的潜力; 2）对指标9.4.1进行案例研究，以说明并阐明进行即时预测的过程。SDG指标共有231项，但由于只考察一级指标，而且许多指标有多个子指标，最终调查了362项指标和子指标。在这362个候选人中，有150个被认为极有可能适合进行即时预报，87个被认为是可能的，125个被认为不适合。
英文摘要：
The 2030 Agenda and accompanying Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) are vital in guiding national and global policy. However, many of the SDG indicators used to measure progress toward those goals suffer from long publication lags. Nowcasting has the potential to address this problem and generate more timely estimates of those indicators. This paper provides resources for achieving that potential by 1) carrying out a comprehensive nowcasting feasibility survey of all SDG indicators to assess their potential to be nowcast, and 2) performing a case study of indicator 9.4.1 to illustrate and shed light on the process of performing a nowcasting exercise. There exist 231 SDG indicators, but due to only examining Tier 1 indicators and the fact that many indicators have multiple sub-indicators, 362 indicators and sub-indicators were eventually surveyed. Of those 362, 150 were found highly likely to be suitable candidates for nowcasting, 87 were found to be likely, and 125 were found to be unsuitable.
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