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arXiv 2203.04401eess.SPcs.LGcs.SYeess.SY
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KPF-AE-LSTM: A Deep Probabilistic Model for Net-Load Forecasting in High Solar Scenarios

Quantum Energy Partners(量子能源伙伴公司);Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory(劳伦斯利弗莫尔国家实验室);Pacific Northwest National Laboratory(太平洋西北国家实验室);University of Vermont(佛蒙特大学);Portland General Electric(波特兰通用电气公司)

Deepthi Sen, Indrasis Chakraborty, Soumya Kundu, Andrew P. Reiman, Ian Beil, Andy Eiden

英文摘要:

With the expected rise in behind-the-meter solar penetration within the distribution networks, there is a need to develop time-series forecasting methods that can reliably predict the net-load, accurately quantifying its uncertainty and variability. This paper presents a deep learning method to generate probabilistic forecasts of day-ahead net-load at 15-min resolution, at various solar penetration levels. Our proposed deep-learning based architecture utilizes the dimensional reduction, from a higher-dimensional input to a lower-dimensional latent space, via a convolutional Autoencoder (AE). The extracted features from AE are then utilized to generate probability distributions across the latent space, by passing the features through a kernel-embedded Perron-Frobenius (kPF) operator. Finally, long short-term memory (LSTM) layers are used to synthesize time-series probability distributions of the forecasted net-load, from the latent space distributions. The models are shown to deliver superior forecast performance (as per several metrics), as well as maintain superior training efficiency, in comparison to existing benchmark models. Detailed analysis is carried out to evaluate the model performance across various solar penetration levels (up to 50\%), prediction horizons (e.g., 15\,min and 24\,hr ahead), and aggregation level of houses, as well as its robustness against missing measurements.

机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来,可能存在错误,请以论文正文为准。

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