This paper covers predicting high-resolution electricity peak demand features given lower-resolution data. This is a relevant setup as it answers whether limited higher-resolution monitoring helps to estimate future high-resolution peak loads when the high-resolution data is no longer available. That question is particularly interesting for network operators considering replacing high-resolution monitoring predictive models due to economic considerations. We propose models to predict half-hourly minima and maxima of high-resolution (every minute) electricity load data while model inputs are of a lower resolution (30 minutes). We combine predictions of generalized additive models (GAM) and deep artificial neural networks (DNN), which are popular in load forecasting. We extensively analyze the prediction models, including the input parameters' importance, focusing on load, weather, and seasonal effects. The proposed method won a data competition organized by Western Power Distribution, a British distribution network operator. In addition, we provide a rigorous evaluation study that goes beyond the competition frame to analyze the models' robustness. The results show that the proposed methods are superior to the competition benchmark concerning the out-of-sample root mean squared error (RMSE). This holds regarding the competition month and the supplementary evaluation study, which covers an additional eleven months. Overall, our proposed model combination reduces the out-of-sample RMSE by 57.4\% compared to the benchmark.
The decarbonisation of heat in developed economies represents a significant challenge, with increased penetration of electrical heating technologies potentially leading to unprecedented increases in peak electricity demand. This work considers a method to evaluate the impact of rapid electrification of heat by utilising historic gas demand data. The work is intended to provide a data-driven complement to popular generative heat demand models, with a particular aim of informing regulators and actors in capacity markets as to how policy changes could impact on medium-term system adequacy metrics…
University of Essex（埃塞克斯大学）；Durham University（杜伦大学）；University College Cork（科克大学学院）
The power system is undergoing rapid evolution with the roll-out of advanced metering infrastructure and local energy applications (e.g. electric vehicles) as well as the increasing penetration of intermittent renewable energy at both transmission and distribution level, which characterizes the peak load demand with stronger randomness and less predictability and therefore poses a threat to the power grid security. Since storing large quantities of electricity to satisfy load demand is neither economically nor environmentally friendly, effective peak demand management strategies and reliable p…
Supervised Machine Learning and Physics based Machine Learning approach for prediction of peak temperature distribution in Additive Friction Stir Deposition of Aluminium Alloy
School of Industrial and Information Engineering, Politecnico Di Milano（米兰理工大学工业与信息工程学院）
Battery energy storage systems can be used for peak demand reduction in power systems, leading to significant economic benefits. Two practical challenges are 1) accurately determining the peak load days and hours and 2) quantifying and reducing uncertainties associated with the forecast in probabilistic risk measures for dispatch decision-making. In this study, we develop a supervised machine learning approach to generate 1) the probability of the next operation day containing the peak hour of the month and 2) the probability of an hour to be the peak hour of the day. Guidance is provided on t…
One of the widely used peak reduction methods in smart grids is demand response, where one analyzes the shift in customers' (agents') usage patterns in response to the signal from the distribution company. Often, these signals are in the form of incentives offered to agents. This work studies the effect of incentives on the probabilities of accepting such offers in a real-world smart grid simulator, PowerTAC. We first show that there exists a function that depicts the probability of an agent reducing its load as a function of the discounts offered to them. We call it reduction probability (RP)…
Analyzing smart meter data to understand energy consumption patterns helps utilities and energy providers perform customized demand response operations. Existing energy consumption segmentation techniques use assumptions that could result in reduced quality of clusters in representing their members. We address this limitation by introducing a two-stage clustering method that more accurately captures load shape temporal patterns and peak demands. In the first stage, load shapes are clustered by allowing a large number of clusters to accurately capture variations in energy use patterns and clust…
We explore the application of kernel-based multi-task learning techniques to forecast the demand of electricity in multiple nodes of a distribution network. We show that recently developed output kernel learning techniques are particularly well suited to solve this problem, as they allow to flexibly model the complex seasonal effects that characterize electricity demand data, while learning and exploiting correlations between multiple demand profiles. We also demonstrate that kernels with a multiplicative structure yield superior predictive performance with respect to the widely adopted (gener…
House of Energy Markets and Finance（能源市场与金融研究院）；University of Duisburg-Essen（杜伊斯堡-埃森大学）
We present a winning method of the IEEE DataPort Competition on Day-Ahead Electricity Demand Forecasting: Post-COVID Paradigm. The day-ahead load forecasting approach is based on online forecast combination of multiple point prediction models. It contains four steps: i) data cleaning and preprocessing, ii) a holiday adjustment procedure, iii) training of individual forecasting models, iv) forecast combination by smoothed Bernstein Online Aggregation (BOA). The approach is flexible and can quickly adopt to new energy system situations as they occurred during and after COVID-19 shutdowns. The po…
The rising demand for electricity and its essential nature in today's world calls for intelligent home energy management (HEM) systems that can reduce energy usage. This involves scheduling of loads from peak hours of the day when energy consumption is at its highest to leaner off-peak periods of the day when energy consumption is relatively lower thereby reducing the system's peak load demand, which would consequently result in lesser energy bills, and improved load demand profile. This work introduces a novel way to develop a learning system that can learn from experience to shift loads from…
Asymmetric Peak-Aware Loss for Peak-Critical Time Series Forecasting
Department of Transport and Planning, Faculty of Civil Engineering and Geosciences（交通与规划系，土木与地球科学学院）；Mobility Innovation Centre Delft University of Technology（代尔夫特理工大学移动创新中心）；Delft University of Technology（代尔夫特理工大学）
This paper presents a new approach for the recognition of elements in floor plan layouts. Besides of elements with common shapes, we aim to recognize elements with irregular shapes such as circular rooms and inclined walls. Furthermore, the reduction of noise in the semantic segmentation of the floor plan is on demand. To this end, we propose direction-aware, learnable, additive kernels in the application of both the context module and common convolutional blocks. We apply them for high performance of elements with both common and irregular shapes. Besides, an adversarial network with two disc…
In the present study, a Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) based Demand Response (DR) model, using Artificial Neural Network (ANN) to predict load is proposed. The electrical load and climatological data of a residential area in Austin city in Texas are used as the inputs of the ANN. Then, the outcomes with the day-ahead prices data are used to solve the load shifting and cost reduction problem. According to the results, the proposed model has the ability to decrease payment costs and peak load.
Different passenger demand rates in transit stations underscore the importance of adopting operational strategies to provide a demand-responsive service. Aiming at improving passengers' travel time, the present study introduces an advanced data-driven optimization approach to determine the optimal stop-skip pattern in urban rail transit lines. In detail, first, using the time-series smart card data for an entire month, we employ a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) deep learning model to predict the station-level demand rates for the peak hour. This prediction is based on four preceding hours and i…
CELESTE, Inria Saclay（法国国家信息与自动化研究所萨克雷研究中心，CELESTE）；School of Mathematics, University of Bristol（布里斯托大学数学学院）；EDF Lab（法国电力集团研究院）
In the context of smart grids and load balancing, daily peak load forecasting has become a critical activity for stakeholders of the energy industry. An understanding of peak magnitude and timing is paramount for the implementation of smart grid strategies such as peak shaving. The modelling approach proposed in this paper leverages high-resolution and low-resolution information to forecast daily peak demand size and timing. The resulting multi-resolution modelling framework can be adapted to different model classes. The key contributions of this paper are a) a general and formal introduction …
