Mobility与SARS-CoV-2在Belgium的空间传播
Mobility and the spatial spread of SARS-CoV-2 in Belgium
AI总结：
研究分析了Belgium 43个地区的mobility与COVID-19数据，发现人员物理移动与SARS-CoV-2早期传播存在强相关性，且该相关性随病毒扩散而减弱。
摘要：
我们分析并相互比较了Belgium 43个arrondissements（NUTS 3）的COVID-19相关数据与mobility数据的时间序列。通过这种方式，我们得出三个结论。首先，我们检测到在高发病率阶段mobility有所下降。这表现为在五个不同时期内，人们在其居住arrondissement之外度过的平均时间发生显著变化，并使用inter-arrondissement“connectivity index”（CI）进行了更详细的研究。其次，我们分析了时空COVID-19相关住院时间序列，在此之前使用generalise additive mixed model（GAMM）对其进行了平滑处理。我们确认，在流行病学进展方面，某些arrondissements领先于其他arrondissements，且在形态上与其他arrondissements不相似。用于量化此现象的工具分别是time-lagged cross-correlation（TLCC）和dynamic time warping（DTW）。第三，我们证明，一个arrondissement与三个被识别为首次爆发的arrondissements之一的CI，与首次爆发后约五至六周的显著局部超额死亡率相关。更一般地，我们将导致第一和第二个结论的结果结合起来，以证明CI值与TLCC和DTW值之间存在总体相关性。我们得出结论，在Belgium SARS-CoV-2流行早期阶段，人们的物理移动与病毒传播之间存在强相关性，尽管随着病毒传播，这种相关性强度会减弱。
英文摘要：
We analyse and mutually compare time series of COVID-19-related data and mobility data across Belgium's 43 arrondissements (NUTS 3). In this way, we reach three conclusions. First, we could detect a decrease in mobility during high-incidence stages of the pandemic. This is expressed as a significant change in the average amount of time spent outside one's home arrondissement, investigated over five distinct periods, and in more detail using an inter-arrondissement ``connectivity index'' (CI). Second, we analyse spatio-temporal COVID-19-related hospitalisation time series, after smoothing them using a generalise additive mixed model (GAMM). We confirm that some arrondissements are ahead of others and morphologically dissimilar to others, in terms of epidemiological progression. The tools used to quantify this are time-lagged cross-correlation (TLCC) and dynamic time warping (DTW), respectively. Third, we demonstrate that an arrondissement's CI with one of the three identified first-outbreak arrondissements is correlated to a significant local excess mortality some five to six weeks after the first outbreak. More generally, we couple results leading to the first and second conclusion, in order to demonstrate an overall correlation between CI values on the one hand, and TLCC and DTW values on the other. We conclude that there is a strong correlation between physical movement of people and viral spread in the early stage of the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in Belgium, though its strength weakens as the virus spreads
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