轨道使用经济学：开放获取、外部成本与失控的碎片增长
The Economics of Orbit Use: Open Access, External Costs, and Runaway Debris Growth
AI总结：
本文构建含内生碰撞风险的轨道使用物理—经济模型，比较开放获取与外部成本内部化，证明自催化碎片增长是 Kessler Syndrome 出现的关键。
摘要：
我们提出了一个包含内生卫星碰撞风险的地球轨道使用动态物理—经济模型，用以研究在何种条件下，轨道物体之间产生碎片的碰撞会导致碎片增长，进而可能使地球轨道无法使用，这一结果被称为 Kessler Syndrome（凯斯勒综合征）。我们刻画了开放获取情形下，以及外部成本——即额外发射一颗卫星对所有卫星所面临碰撞风险的影响——被内部化时，轨道物体的动态变化，并证明在两种情形下都可能出现 Kessler Syndrome。最后，我们表明，一旦对卫星发射的经济激励进行建模，要出现 Kessler Syndrome，自催化碎片增长至关重要。在我们的主要校准中，Kessler Syndrome 可能在2040年至2184年之间的任何时间出现，而确切日期对自催化碎片增长参数的校准非常敏感。
英文摘要：
We present a dynamic physico-economic model of Earth orbit use with endogenous satellite collision risk to study conditions under which debris-producing collisions between orbiting bodies result in debris growth that may render Earth's orbits unusable, an outcome known as Kessler Syndrome. We characterize the dynamics of objects in orbit under open access as well as when external costs -- the impact of an additional satellite launch on the collision risk faced by all satellites -- are internalized, and we show that Kessler Syndrome can emerge in both cases. Finally, we show that once the economic incentives of satellite launching are modeled, for Kessler Syndrome to emerge, autocatalytic debris growth is essential. In our main calibration, Kessler Syndrome can emerge anytime between the year 2040 and the year 2184, with the precise date being very sensitive to the calibration of autocatalytic debris growth parameters.
机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来，可能存在错误，请以论文正文为准。
