This paper presents a new dynamic approach to experiment design in settings where, due to interference or other concerns, experimental units are coarse. `Region-split' experiments on online platforms are one example of such a setting. The cost, or regret, of experimentation is a natural concern here. Our new design, dubbed Synthetically Controlled Thompson Sampling (SCTS), minimizes the regret associated with experimentation at no practically meaningful loss to inferential ability. We provide theoretical guarantees characterizing the near-optimal regret of our approach, and the error rates achieved by the corresponding treatment effect estimator. Experiments on synthetic and real world data highlight the merits of our approach relative to both fixed and `switchback' designs common to such experimental settings.
This paper is in the field of stochastic Multi-Armed Bandits (MABs), i.e., those sequential selection techniques able to learn online using only the feedback given by the chosen option (a.k.a. arm). We study a particular case of the rested and restless bandits in which the arms' expected payoff is monotonically non-decreasing. This characteristic allows designing specifically crafted algorithms that exploit the regularity of the payoffs to provide tight regret bounds. We design an algorithm for the rested case (R-ed-UCB) and one for the restless case (R-less-UCB), providing a regret bound depe…
In this paper, we study censored Semi-Bandits, a novel variant of the semi-bandits problem. The learner is assumed to have a fixed amount of resources, which it allocates to the arms at each time step. The loss observed from an arm is random and depends on the amount of resources allocated to it. More specifically, the loss equals zero if the allocation for the arm exceeds a constant (but unknown)threshold that can be dependent on the arm. Our goal is to learn a feasible allocation that minimizes the expected loss. The problem is challenging because the loss distribution and threshold value of…
Indian Institute of Technology Bombay（孟买印度理工学院）；Indian Institute of Technology Madras（马德拉斯印度理工学院）；LinkedIn India（领英印度）
We consider the problem of sequentially allocating resources in a censored semi-bandits setup, where the learner allocates resources at each step to the arms and observes loss. The loss depends on two hidden parameters, one specific to the arm but independent of the resource allocation, and the other depends on the allocated resource. More specifically, the loss equals zero for an arm if the resource allocated to it exceeds a constant (but unknown) arm dependent threshold. The goal is to learn a resource allocation that minimizes the expected loss. The problem is challenging because the loss d…
The Ohio State University（俄亥俄州立大学）；University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign（伊利诺伊大学厄巴纳-香槟分校）
Time-constrained decision processes have been ubiquitous in many fundamental applications in physics, biology and computer science. Recently, restart strategies have gained significant attention for boosting the efficiency of time-constrained processes by expediting the completion times. In this work, we investigate the bandit problem with controlled restarts for time-constrained decision processes, and develop provably good learning algorithms. In particular, we consider a bandit setting where each decision takes a random completion time, and yields a random and correlated reward at the end, …
There is a rising interest in industrial online applications where data becomes available sequentially. Inspired by the recommendation of playlists to users where their preferences can be collected during the listening of the entire playlist, we study a novel bandit setting, namely Multi-Armed Bandit with Temporally-Partitioned Rewards (TP-MAB), in which the stochastic reward associated with the pull of an arm is partitioned over a finite number of consecutive rounds following the pull. This setting, unexplored so far to the best of our knowledge, is a natural extension of delayed-feedback ban…
We revisit the classic regret-minimization problem in the stochastic multi-armed bandit setting when the arm-distributions are allowed to be heavy-tailed. Regret minimization has been well studied in simpler settings of either bounded support reward distributions or distributions that belong to a single parameter exponential family. We work under the much weaker assumption that the moments of order $(1+ε)$ are uniformly bounded by a known constant B, for some given $ε> 0$. We propose an optimal algorithm that matches the lower bound exactly in the first-order term. We also give a finite-time b…
Otto-von-Guericke University of Magdeburg（马格德堡奥托·冯·格里克大学）；University of Warwick（华威大学）
In this paper, we study a non-stationary stochastic bandit problem, which generalizes the switching bandit problem. On top of the switching bandit problem (\textbf{Case a}), we are interested in three concrete examples: (\textbf{b}) the means of the arms are local polynomials, (\textbf{c}) the means of the arms are locally smooth, and (\textbf{d}) the gaps of the arms have a bounded number of inflexion points and where the highest arm mean cannot vary too much in a short range. These three settings are very different, but have in common the following: (i) the number of similarly-sized level se…
Delayed rewards problem in contextual bandits has been of interest in various practical settings. We study randomized allocation strategies and provide an understanding on how the exploration-exploitation tradeoff is affected by delays in observing the rewards. In randomized strategies, the extent of exploration-exploitation is controlled by a user-determined exploration probability sequence. In the presence of delayed rewards, one may choose between using the original exploration sequence that updates at every time point or update the sequence only when a new reward is observed, leading to tw…
Korbit Technologies Inc.（Korbit科技公司）；University of Bath（巴斯大学）
We present an adaptive learning Intelligent Tutoring System, which uses model-based reinforcement learning in the form of contextual bandits to assign learning activities to students. The model is trained on the trajectories of thousands of students in order to maximize their exercise completion rates and continues to learn online, automatically adjusting itself to new activities. A randomized controlled trial with students shows that our model leads to superior completion rates and significantly improved student engagement when compared to other approaches. Our approach is fully-automated unl…
We consider a class of restless multi-armed bandit (RMAB) problems with unknown arm dynamics. At each time, a player chooses an arm out of N arms to play, referred to as an active arm, and receives a random reward from a finite set of reward states. The reward state of the active arm transits according to an unknown Markovian dynamics. The reward state of passive arms (which are not chosen to play at time t) evolves according to an arbitrary unknown random process. The objective is an arm-selection policy that minimizes the regret, defined as the reward loss with respect to a player that alway…
The University of Tokyo（东京大学）；Tokyo University of Science（东京理科大学）
By exploiting ultrafast and irregular time series generated by lasers with delayed feedback, we have previously demonstrated a scalable algorithm to solve multi-armed bandit (MAB) problems utilizing the time-division multiplexing of laser chaos time series. Although the algorithm detects the arm with the highest reward expectation, the correct recognition of the order of arms in terms of reward expectations is not achievable. Here, we present an algorithm where the degree of exploration is adaptively controlled based on confidence intervals that represent the estimation accuracy of reward expe…
Microsoft Research（微软研究院）；Sorbonne Université（索邦大学）；Orange Labs（法国电信实验室）
In Batched Multi-Armed Bandits (BMAB), the policy is not allowed to be updated at each time step. Usually, the setting asserts a maximum number of allowed policy updates and the algorithm schedules them so that to minimize the expected regret. In this paper, we describe a novel setting for BMAB, with the following twist: the timing of the policy update is not controlled by the BMAB algorithm, but instead the amount of data received during each batch, called \textit{crowd}, is influenced by the past selection of arms. We first design a near-optimal policy with approximate knowledge of the param…
SUNY-Binghamton University（纽约州立大学宾汉姆顿分校）；Indian Institute of Science（印度科学学院）
We study a finite-horizon restless multi-armed bandit problem with multiple actions, dubbed R(MA)^2B. The state of each arm evolves according to a controlled Markov decision process (MDP), and the reward of pulling an arm depends on both the current state of the corresponding MDP and the action taken. The goal is to sequentially choose actions for arms so as to maximize the expected value of the cumulative rewards collected. Since finding the optimal policy is typically intractable, we propose a computationally appealing index policy which we call Occupancy-Measured-Reward Index Policy. Our po…
Efficient Multinomial Logistic Bandit via Frequent Directions
State Key Laboratory of Novel Software Technology, Nanjing University（南京大学计算机软件新技术国家重点实验室）；School of Artificial Intelligence, Nanjing University（南京大学人工智能学院）；Paul G. Allen School of Computer Science & Engineering, University of Washington（华盛顿大学保罗·G·艾伦计算机科学与工程学院）
Determining what experience to generate to best facilitate learning (i.e. exploration) is one of the distinguishing features and open challenges in reinforcement learning. The advent of distributed agents that interact with parallel instances of the environment has enabled larger scales and greater flexibility, but has not removed the need to tune exploration to the task, because the ideal data for the learning algorithm necessarily depends on its process of learning. We propose to dynamically adapt the data generation by using a non-stationary multi-armed bandit to optimize a proxy of the lea…
Estimation of the complete distribution of a random variable is a useful primitive for both manual and automated decision making. This problem has received extensive attention in the i.i.d. setting, but the arbitrary data dependent setting remains largely unaddressed. Consistent with known impossibility results, we present computationally felicitous time-uniform and value-uniform bounds on the CDF of the running averaged conditional distribution of a real-valued random variable which are always valid and sometimes trivial, along with an instance-dependent convergence guarantee. The importance-…
Extended UCB Policies for Multi-armed Bandit Problems
School of Mathematics and Physics（数学与物理学院）；Xi’an Jiaotong-Liverpool University（西安交通大学利物浦大学）；School of Mathematics（数学学院）；Nanjing University（南京大学）；National Key Laboratory for Novel Software Technology（新型软件技术国家实验室）；School of Artificial Intelligence（人工智能学院）
Saitama University（埼玉大学）；Kanazawa University（金泽大学）；Japan Science and Technology Agency（日本科学技术振兴机构）；The University of Tokyo（东京大学）
Photonic artificial intelligence has attracted considerable interest in accelerating machine learning; however, the unique optical properties have not been fully utilized for achieving higher-order functionalities. Chaotic itinerancy, with its spontaneous transient dynamics among multiple quasi-attractors, can be employed to realize brain-like functionalities. In this paper, we propose a method for controlling the chaotic itinerancy in a multi-mode semiconductor laser to solve a machine learning task, known as the multi-armed bandit problem, which is fundamental to reinforcement learning. The …
Università degli Studi di Milano（米兰大学）；Politecnico di Milano（米兰理工大学）
We investigate the problem of bandits with expert advice when the experts are fixed and known distributions over the actions. Improving on previous analyses, we show that the regret in this setting is controlled by information-theoretic quantities that measure the similarity between experts. In some natural special cases, this allows us to obtain the first regret bound for EXP4 that can get arbitrarily close to zero if the experts are similar enough. While for a different algorithm, we provide another bound that describes the similarity between the experts in terms of the KL-divergence, and we…
University of Maryland, College Park（马里兰大学帕克分校）；Department of Mathematics, University of Maryland, College Park（马里兰大学帕克分校数学系）
Policy learning is a quickly growing area. As robotics and computers control day-to-day life, their error rate needs to be minimized and controlled. There are many policy learning methods and bandit methods with provable error rates that accompany them. We show an error or regret bound and convergence of the Deep Epsilon Greedy method which chooses actions with a neural network's prediction. We also show that Epsilon Greedy method regret upper bound is minimized with cubic root exploration. In experiments with the real-world dataset MNIST, we construct a nonlinear reinforcement learning proble…
