With the growing number of spectroscopic observations and observational platforms capable of exoplanet atmospheric characterization, there is a growing need for analysis techniques that can distill information about a large population of exoplanets into a coherent picture of atmospheric trends expressed within the statistical sample. In this work, we develop a Hierarchical Bayesian Atmospheric Retrieval (HBAR) model to infer population-level trends in exoplanet atmospheric characteristics. We demonstrate HBAR on the case of inferring a trend in atmospheric CO2 with incident stellar flux, predicted by the presence of a functioning carbonate-silicate weathering negative feedback cycle, an assumption upon which all calculations of the habitable zone (HZ) rest. Using simulated transmission spectra and JWST-quality observations of rocky planets with H2O, CO2, and N2 bearing atmospheres, we find that the predicted trend in CO2 causes subtle differences in the spectra of order 10 ppm in the 1-5 um range, underscoring the challenge inherent to testing this hypothesis. In the limit of highly precise data (100 stacked transits per planet), we show that our HBAR model is capable of inferring the population-level parameters that characterize the trend in CO2, and we demonstrate that the null hypothesis and other simpler trends can be rejected at high confidence. Although we find that this specific empirical test of the HZ may be prohibitively challenging in the JWST era, the HBAR framework developed in this work may find a more immediate usage for the analysis of gas giant spectra observed with JWST, Ariel, and other upcoming missions.
Planets composed of large quantities of water that reside in the habitable zone are expected to have distinct geophysics and geochemistry of their surfaces and atmospheres. We explore these properties motivated by two key questions: whether such planets could provide habitable conditions and whether they exhibit discernable spectral features that distinguish a water-planet from a rocky Earth-like planet. We show that the recently discovered planets Kepler-62e and -62f are the first viable candidates for habitable zone water-planet. We use these planets as test cases for discussing those differ…
The discovery of a truly habitable exoplanet would be one of the most important events in the history of science. However, the nature and distribution of habitable environments on exoplanets is currently unconstrained. The exoplanet revolution teaches us to expect surprises. Thus, versatile, capable observatories, and multiple observation techniques are needed to study the full diversity of habitable environments. Here, we summarize the challenges and opportunities of observing planets orbiting M dwarf vs. FGK dwarfs, which are best targeted with different methods.
Giant planets within the habitable zones of the closest several stars can currently be imaged with ground-based telescopes. Within the next decade, the Extremely Large Telescopes (ELTs) will begin to image the habitable zones of a greater number of nearby stars with much higher sensitivity$-$ potentially imaging exo-Earths around the closest stars. To determine the most promising candidates for observations over the next decade, we establish a theoretical framework for the direct detectability of Earth$-$ to super-Jovian-mass exoplanets in the mid-infrared based on available atmospheric and ev…
In support of the National Acadamies' Exoplanet Science Strategy, this whitepaper outlines key technology challenges for studying the diversity of worlds in the Galaxy and in searching for habitable planets. Observations of habitable planets outside of our solar system require technologies enabling the measurement of (1) spectral signatures of gases in their atmospheres, some of which may be of biological origin, and (2) planetary mass. Technology gaps must be closed in many areas. In some cases, performance requirements are 1-2 orders of magnitude from the current state-of-the-art. Thes techn…
BITS Pilani, K. K. Birla Goa Campus（印度博拉理工学院果阿分校）；CSIS and APPCAIR, BITS Pilani, K. K. Birla Goa Campus（印度博拉理工学院果阿分校CSIS与APPCAIR中心）；Indian Institute of Astrophysics（印度天体物理研究所）
A profound shift in the study of cosmology came with the discovery of thousands of exoplanets and the possibility of the existence of billions of them in our Galaxy. The biggest goal in these searches is whether there are other life-harbouring planets. However, the question which of these detected planets are habitable, potentially-habitable, or maybe even inhabited, is still not answered. Some potentially habitable exoplanets have been hypothesized, but since Earth is the only known habitable planet, measures of habitability are necessarily determined with Earth as the reference. Several rece…
One of the primary goals of exoplanet science is to find and characterize habitable planets, and direct imaging will play a key role in this effort. Though imaging a true Earth analog is likely out of reach from the ground, the coming generation of giant telescopes will find and characterize many planets in and near the habitable zones (HZs) of nearby stars. Radial velocity and transit searches indicate that such planets are common, but imaging them will require achieving extreme contrasts at very small angular separations, posing many challenges for adaptive optics (AO) system design. Giant p…
Cross-Model Validation of Coronagraphic Exposure Time Calculators for the Habitable Worlds Observatory: A Report from the Exoplanet Science Yield sub-Working Group
Habitable Worlds Observatory (HWO): Living Worlds Community Working Group: The Search for Life on Potentially Habitable Exoplanets
NASA Goddard Space Flight Center（美国宇航局戈达德太空飞行中心）；NASA Ames Research Center（美国宇航局艾姆斯研究中心）；Louisiana State University（路易斯安那州立大学）；Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology（加州理工学院喷气推进实验室）；University of Washington（华盛顿大学）；Purdue University（普渡大学）；University of California at Riverside（加利福尼亚大学河滨分校）；Arizona State University（亚利桑那州立大学）；Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory（约翰斯·霍普金斯大学应用物理实验室）；University of Arizona Lunar and Planetary Laboratory（亚利桑那大学月球与行星实验室）；Gemini North Observatory（双子座北望远镜）；Bard College（巴德学院）；University of Oslo（奥斯陆大学）
Closeby Habitable Exoplanet Survey (CHES). IV. Synergy between astrometry and direct imaging missions of the Habitable World Observatory for detecting Earth-like planets
Locating planets in circumstellar Habitable Zones is a priority for many exoplanet surveys. Space-based and ground-based surveys alike require robust toolsets to aid in target selection and mission planning. We present the Catalog of Earth-Like Exoplanet Survey Targets (CELESTA), a database of Habitable Zones around 36,000 nearby stars. We calculated stellar parameters, including effective temperatures, masses, and radii, and we quantified the orbital distances and periods corresponding to the circumstellar Habitable Zones. We gauged the accuracy of our predictions by contrasting CELESTA's com…
Beijing Normal University（北京师范大学）；Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology（加州理工学院喷气推进实验室）；Max Planck Institute for Astronomy（马克斯·普朗克天文研究所）
Exoplanet detection in the past decade by efforts including NASA's Kepler and TESS missions has discovered many worlds that differ substantially from planets in our own Solar System, including more than 150 exoplanets orbiting binary or multi-star systems. This not only broadens our understanding of the diversity of exoplanets, but also promotes our study of exoplanets in the complex binary systems and provides motivation to explore their habitability. In this study, we investigate the Habitable Zones of circumbinary planets based on planetary trajectory and dynamically informed habitable zone…
One of the possible signs of life on distant habitable exoplanets is the red-edge, which is a rise in the reflectivity of planets between visible and near-infrared (NIR) wavelengths. Previous studies suggested the possibility that the red-edge position for habitable exoplanets around M-dwarfs may be shifted to a longer wavelength than that for Earth. We investigated plausible red-edge position in terms of the light environment during the course of the evolution of phototrophs. We show that phototrophs on M-dwarf habitable exoplanets may use visible light when they first evolve in the ocean and…
yieldplotlib: A unified library for exoplanet yield code visualizations
Goddard Space Flight Center（戈达德太空飞行中心）；The Catholic University of America（天主教美国大学）；Center for Research and Exploration in Space Science and Technology, NASA/GSFC（NASA/戈达德太空飞行中心空间科学和技术探索研究中心）；Space Telescope Science Institute（太空望远镜科学研究所）
Large ground- and space-based telescopes will be able to observe Earth-like planets in the near future. We explore how different planetary surfaces can strongly influence the climate, atmospheric composition, and remotely detectable spectra of terrestrial rocky exoplanets in the habitable zone depending on the host star's incident irradiation spectrum for a range of Sun-like host stars from F0V to K7V. We update a well-tested 1D climate-photochemistry model to explore the changes of a planetary environment for different surfaces for different host stars. Our results show that using a wavelengt…
The power of polarimetry for characterising exoplanet atmospheres, clouds, and surfaces with NASA's Habitable Worlds Observatory
University of Bristol（布里斯托大学）；University of Oxford（牛津大学）；University of Exeter（埃克塞特大学）；The Open University（开放大学）；University of Edinburgh（爱丁堡大学）；Leiden Observatory（莱顿天文台）；Delft University of Technology（代尔夫特理工大学）
Giant exoplanets on 10-100 au orbits have been directly imaged around young stars. The peak of the thermal emission from these warm young planets is in the near-infrared (~1-5 microns), whereas mature, temperate exoplanets (i.e., those within their stars' habitable zones) radiate primarily in the mid-infrared (mid-IR: ~10 microns). If the background noise in the mid-IR can be mitigated, then exoplanets with low masses--including rocky exoplanets--can potentially be imaged in very deep exposures. Here, we review the recent results of the Breakthrough Watch/New Earths in the Alpha Centauri Regio…
Investigating the atmospheres of rocky exoplanets is key to performing comparative planetology between these worlds and the terrestrial planets that reside in the inner solar system. Terrestrial exoplanet atmospheres exhibit weak signals, and attempting to detect them pushes at the boundaries of what is possible for current instrumentation. We focus on the habitable-zone terrestrial exoplanet LHS 1140b. Given its 25-day orbital period and 2 hr transit duration, capturing transits of LHS 1140b is challenging. We observed two transits of this object, approximately 1 yr apart, which yielded four …
The detection of exoplanets orbiting other stars has revolutionized our view of the cosmos. First results suggest that it is teeming with a fascinating diversity of rocky planets, including those in the habitable zone. Even our closest star, Proxima Centauri, harbors a small planet in its habitable zone, Proxima b. With the next generation of telescopes, we will be able to peer into the atmospheres of rocky planets and get a glimpse into other worlds. Using our own planet and its wide range of biota as a Rosetta stone, we explore how we could detect habitability and signs of life on exoplanets…
Results from the Kepler mission indicate that the occurrence rate of small planets ($<3$ $R_\oplus$) in the habitable zone of nearby low-mass stars may be as high as 80%. Despite this abundance, probing the conditions and atmospheric properties on any habitable-zone planet is extremely difficult and has remained elusive to date. Here, we report the detection of water vapor and the likely presence of liquid and icy water clouds in the atmosphere of the $2.6$ $R_\oplus$ habitable-zone planet K2-18b. The simultaneous detection of water vapor and clouds in the mid-atmosphere of K2-18b is particula…
The search for habitable exoplanets in the Universe is actively ongoing in the field of astronomy. The biggest future milestone is to determine whether life exists on such habitable exoplanets. In that context, oxygen in the atmosphere has been considered strong evidence for the presence of photosynthetic organisms. In this paper, we show that a previously unconsidered photochemical mechanism by titanium(IV) oxide (titania) can produce abiotic oxygen from liquid water under near ultraviolet (NUV) lights on the surface of exoplanets. Titania works as a photocatalyst to dissociate liquid water i…
Habitable Worlds Observatory Living Worlds Working Group: Surface Biosignatures on Potentially Habitable Exoplanets
NASA Ames Research Center（美国国家航空航天局艾姆斯研究中心）；University of Washington（华盛顿大学）；University of Michigan（密歇根大学）；NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies（美国国家航空航天局戈达德太空研究所）；Cornell University（康奈尔大学）；University of California, Riverside（加州大学河滨分校）；University of Bern（伯尔尼大学）；Ludwig-Maximilian University of Munich（慕尼黑路德维希-马克西米利安大学）；IRSOL, Universita Svizzera italiana（瑞士意大利大学太阳观测研究所）；Goddard Space Flight Center（戈达德太空飞行中心）；Purdue University（普渡大学）；Nagoya University（名古屋大学）；University of Rhode Island（罗德岛大学）；Northern Arizona University（北亚利桑那大学）；University of Central Florida（中佛罗里达大学）；Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory（约翰斯·霍普金斯大学应用物理实验室）
Searching for Habitable Exoplanets with Relative Astrometry (SHERA). I. The Case for Searching for Planets in Binary Star Systems
Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology（喷气推进实验室，加州理工学院）；Department of Astronomy, New Mexico State University（新墨西哥州立大学天文学系）；Department of Astronomy and Steward Observatory, University of Arizona（亚利桑那大学天文学系和斯图尔德天文台）；Department of Astronomy, University of Wisconsin-Madison（威斯康星大学麦迪逊分校天文学系）；NASA Ames Research Center（NASA艾姆斯研究中心）；Leiden Observatory（莱顿天文台）
We report the discovery of a new exoplanet candidate orbiting the star GJ 3470. A total of three transits were detected by OKSky Observatory: the first one on December 23, 2019, the second one on February 27, 2020, and the third one on May 3, 2020. We estimate an average transit depth of 0.84 percent and duration of 1 hour and 2 minutes. Based on this parameter, we calculate a radius of 9.2 Earth radii, which would correspond to the size of a Saturn-like exoplanet. We also estimate an orbital period of 66 days that places the exoplanet inside the habitable zone, near the orbital distance at Ea…
We embark on a detailed study of the lightcurves of Keplers most Earth-like exoplanet host stars using the full length of Kepler data. We derive rotation periods, photometric activity indices, flaring energies, mass loss rates, gyrochronological ages, X-ray luminosities and consider implications for the planetary magnetospheres and habitability. Furthermore, we present the detection of superflares in the lightcurve of Kepler-438, the exoplanet with the highest Earth Similarity Index to date. Kepler-438b orbits at a distance of 0.166AU to its host star, and hence may be susceptible to atmospher…
Since the discovery of the first confirmed exoplanet, observations have revealed a remarkable diversity of worlds. A wide variety of orbital and physical characteristics are detected in the exoplanet population, and much work has been devoted to deciding which of these planets may be suitable for life. Until now, though, little work has been devoted to deciding which of the potentially habitable planets might actually be \textit{worth} existing on. To this end, we present the Really Habitable Zone (RHZ), defined as the region around a star where acceptable gins and tonic are likely to be abund…
It has been suggested that the recently discovered exoplanet GJ581d might be able to support liquid water due to its relatively low mass and orbital distance. However, GJ581d receives 35% less stellar energy than Mars and is probably locked in tidal resonance, with extremely low insolation at the poles and possibly a permanent night side. Under such conditions, it is unknown whether any habitable climate on the planet would be able to withstand global glaciation and / or atmospheric collapse. Here we present three-dimensional climate simulations that demonstrate GJ581d will have a stable atmos…
Tides may be crucial to the habitability of exoplanets. If such planets form around low-mass stars, then those in the circumstellar habitable zone will be close enough to their host stars to experience strong tidal forces. Tides may result in orbital decay and circularization, evolution toward zero obliquity, a fixed rotation rate (not necessarily synchronous), and substantial internal heating. Due to tidal effects, the range of habitable orbital locations may be quite different from that defined by the traditional concept of a habitable zone (HZ) based on stellar insolation, atmospheric effec…
The recent discovery of a staggering diversity of planets beyond the Solar System has brought with it a greatly expanded search space for habitable worlds. The Kepler exoplanet survey has revealed that most planets in our interstellar neighborhood are larger than Earth and smaller than Neptune. Collectively termed super-Earths and mini-Neptunes, some of these planets may have the conditions to support liquid water oceans, and thus Earth-like biology, despite differing in many ways from our own planet. In addition to their quantitative abundance, super-Earths are relatively large and are thus m…
We present a model to study secularly and tidally evolving three-body systems composed by two low-mass planets orbiting a star, in the case where the bodies rotation axes are always perpendicular to the orbital plane. The tidal theory allows us to study the spin and orbit evolution of both stiff Earth-like planets and predominantly gaseous Neptune-like planets. The model is applied to study two recently-discovered exoplanetary systems containing potentially habitable exoplanets (PHE): LHS-1140 b-c and K2-18 b-c. For the former system, we show that both LHS-1140 b and c must be in nearly-circul…
The search for habitable exoplanets and life beyond the Solar System is one of the most compelling scientific opportunities of our time. Nevertheless, the high cost of building facilities that can address this topic and the keen public interest in the results of such research requires the rigorous development of experiments that can deliver a definitive advance in our understanding. Most work to date in this area has focused on a "systems science" approach of obtaining and interpreting comprehensive data for individual planets to make statements about their habitability and the possibility tha…
Data from Kepler's first 136 days of operation are analyzed to determine the distribution of exoplanets with respect to radius, period, and host-star spectral type. The analysis is extrapolated to estimate the percentage of terrestrial, habitable-zone exoplanets. The Kepler census is assumed to be complete for bright stars (magnitude <14.0) having transiting planets >0.5 Earth radius and periods <42 days. It is also assumed that the size distribution of planets is independent of orbital period, and that there are no hidden biases in the data. Six significant statistical results are found: ther…
Analysis of Habitability and Stellar Habitable Zones from Observed Exoplanets
Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology（加州理工学院喷气推进实验室）；Lakeside School（湖畔学校）；Pacific Academy（太平洋学院）；Burke Institute for Theoretical Physics, California Institute of Technology（加州理工学院伯克理论物理研究所）
Rocky planets with temperate conditions provide the best chance for discovering habitable worlds and life outside the Solar System. In the last decades, new instrumental facilities and large observational campaigns have been driven by the quest for habitable worlds. Climate models aimed at studying the habitability of rocky planets are essential tools to pay off these technological and observational endeavours. In this context, we present EOS-ESTM, a fast and flexible model aimed at exploring the impact on habitability of multiple climate factors, including those unconstrained by observations.…
Exoplanets orbiting M dwarfs present a valuable opportunity for their detection and atmospheric characterisation. This is evident from recent inferences of H$_2$O in such atmospheres, including that of the habitable-zone exoplanet K2-18b. With a bulk density between Earth and Neptune, K2-18b may be expected to possess a H/He envelope. However, the extent of such an envelope and the thermodynamic conditions of the interior remain unexplored. In the present work, we investigate the atmospheric and interior properties of K2-18b based on its bulk properties and its atmospheric transmission spectru…
Thousands of planets beyond our solar system have been discovered to date, dozens of which are rocky in composition and are orbiting within the circumstellar habitable zone of their host star. The next frontier in life detection beyond our solar system will be detailed characterization of the atmospheres of potentially habitable worlds, resulting in a pressing need to develop a comprehensive understanding of the factors controlling the emergence and maintenance of atmospheric biosignatures. Understanding Earth system evolution is central to this pursuit, and a refined understanding of Earth's …
While previous studies have shown a strong preference for a future mid-infrared nulling interferometer space mission to detect planets within the HZ around M dwarfs, we here focus on a more conservative approach toward the concept of habitability and present yield estimates for two stellar samples consisting of nearby (d<20 pc) Sun-like stars (4800-6300 K) and nearby FGK-type stars (3940-7220 K) accessible to such a mission. Our yield estimates are based on recently derived occurrence rates of rocky planets from the Kepler mission and our LIFE exoplanet observation simulation tool LIFEsim, whi…
Large Interferometer For Exoplanets (LIFE). X. Detectability of currently known exoplanets and synergies with future IR/O/UV reflected-starlight imaging missions
