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arXiv 2201.10304q-fin.CPq-fin.MF
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马尔可夫调制市场模型中基于隐含波动率的制度恢复

Regime recovery using implied volatility in Markov modulated market model

Anindya Goswami, Kedar Nath Mukherjee, Irvine Homi Patalwala, Sanjay N. S

摘要:

在Black-Scholes-Merton资产价格动态模型的状态转换扩展中,假设波动系数是一个隐含的纯跳跃过程。在马尔可夫状态转换的假设下,研究了欧式普通期权的局部风险最小化价格。通过将这些价格或其噪声版本假设为交易价格,我们首先计算了标的资产的隐含波动率(IV)。然后,通过数值实验,我们研究了IV对到期时间(TTM)和执行价格的香草期权的依赖性。我们已经观察到一种明显的依赖性,这种依赖性与经验上观察到的程式化事实是一致的。此外,我们已经通过实验验证了IV时间序列,从合同与货币和TTM变化在特别窄的范围内,可以恢复隐马尔可夫链的过渡实例。这种机制恢复也已在理论上得到了证明。此外,计算期权价格的新方案是稳定的。

英文摘要:

In the regime switching extension of Black-Scholes-Merton model of asset price dynamics, one assumes that the volatility coefficient evolves as a hidden pure jump process. Under the assumption of Markov regime switching, we have considered the locally risk minimizing price of European vanilla options. By pretending these prices or their noisy versions as traded prices, we have first computed the implied volatility (IV) of the underlying asset. Then by performing several numerical experiments we have investigated the dependence of IV on the time to maturity (TTM) and strike price of the vanilla options. We have observed a clear dependence that is at par with the empirically observed stylized facts. Furthermore, we have experimentally validated that IV time series, obtained from contracts with moneyness and TTM varying in particular narrow ranges, can recover the transition instances of the hidden Markov chain. Such regime recovery has also been proved in a theoretical setting. Moreover, the novel scheme for computing option price is shown to be stable.

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