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arXiv 2201.05818cs.AIcs.LG
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测量非概率不确定性:对已知和未知的未知的认知,逻辑和计算评估

Measuring Non-Probabilistic Uncertainty: A cognitive, logical and computational assessment of known and unknown unknowns

Frankfurt School of Finance & Management(法兰克福金融与管理学院);University of Bologna(博洛尼亚大学)

Florian Ellsaesser, Guido Fioretti, Gail E. James

摘要:

概率论不能充分描述不确定性有两个原因。第一种是由于独特或近乎独特的事件,这些事件要么从未实现,要么发生得太少,以至于无法可靠地测量频率。第二个是当一个人害怕某件事可能发生时,他甚至无法弄清楚,例如,如果有人问:“气候变化、金融危机、流行病、战争,接下来会发生什么?“在这两种情况下,简单的一对一的认知地图之间的可用的替代品和可能的后果最终融化。然而,这种破坏以具体、可识别和不同的方式反映在企业高管、员工和其他利益相关者不断变化的叙述中。特别是,可以分析顾问报告或致股东的信函等文本,以查明这两种不确定性对通常指导决策的因果关系的影响。我们提出了认知地图的结构措施作为衡量非概率不确定性的一种手段,最终表明,自动文本分析可以大大增加这些技术提供的可能性。预期的应用可能涉及从统计机构到企业以及一般公众的各种行为者。

英文摘要:

There are two reasons why uncertainty may not be adequately described by Probability Theory. The first one is due to unique or nearly-unique events, that either never realized or occurred too seldom for frequencies to be reliably measured. The second one arises when one fears that something may happen, that one is not even able to figure out, e.g., if one asks: "Climate change, financial crises, pandemic, war, what next?" In both cases, simple one-to-one cognitive maps between available alternatives and possible consequences eventually melt down. However, such destructions reflect into the changing narratives of business executives, employees and other stakeholders in specific, identifiable and differential ways. In particular, texts such as consultants' reports or letters to shareholders can be analysed in order to detect the impact of both sorts of uncertainty onto the causal relations that normally guide decision-making. We propose structural measures of cognitive maps as a means to measure non-probabilistic uncertainty, eventually suggesting that automated text analysis can greatly augment the possibilities offered by these techniques. Prospective applications may concern actors ranging from statistical institutes to businesses as well as the general public.

机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来,可能存在错误,请以论文正文为准。

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