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arXiv 2201.05633astro-ph.HEastro-ph.IM
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用粒子数模型评估符合中微子探测

Assessing coincident neutrino detections using population models

F. Capel, J. M. Burgess, D. J. Mortlock, P. Padovani

摘要:

最近已经报道了高能中微子和天体物理源之间的几种尝试性联系,但这些潜在中微子发射体的结论性识别仍然具有挑战性。我们探讨使用蒙特卡罗模拟的源人口,以获得更深入的了解提出的个人源-中微子协会的物理含义。特别地,我们关注IC 170922 A--TXS~0506+056的观测。假设一个零模型,我们发现一个7.6%的机会,错误地识别之间的巧合$γ$射线耀斑耀变体和中微子警报在10年的调查。我们确认,需要一个耀变体-中微子连接的基础上的$γ$射线通量找到一个低的机会符合概率,因此,一个显着的IC 170922 A-TXS~0506+056协会。然后,我们假设这种耀变体-中微子连接为整个人口,并发现中微子的比例$γ$ -射线流量必须是$\lesssim 10^{-2}$,以不产生过多的中微子警报的总数冰立方看到。为了使IC 170922 A-TXS ~0506+056的关联有意义,我们必须要么接受这种低通量比,要么假设只有一些罕见的耀变体能够产生高能中微子。例如,如果我们只考虑耀变体耀斑中的中微子产生,我们期望$10^{-3}$和$10^{-1}$之间的通量比与中微子警报和闪耀的$γ$射线耀变体的单一重合观测是一致的。这些限制应解释的可能性模型用于找到IC 170922 A-TXS~0506+056协会,它假定一个固定的幂律中微子谱的$E^{-2.13}$的所有耀变体。

英文摘要:

Several tentative associations between high-energy neutrinos and astrophysical sources have been recently reported, but a conclusive identification of these potential neutrino emitters remains challenging. We explore the use of Monte Carlo simulations of source populations to gain deeper insight into the physical implications of proposed individual source--neutrino associations. In particular, we focus on the IC170922A--TXS~0506+056 observation. Assuming a null model, we find a 7.6\% chance of mistakenly identifying coincidences between $γ$-ray flares from blazars and neutrino alerts in 10-year surveys. We confirm that a blazar--neutrino connection based on the $γ$-ray flux is required to find a low chance coincidence probability and, therefore, a significant IC170922A--TXS~0506+056 association. We then assume this blazar--neutrino connection for the whole population and find that the ratio of neutrino to $γ$-ray fluxes must be $\lesssim 10^{-2}$ in order not to overproduce the total number of neutrino alerts seen by IceCube. For the IC170922A--TXS~0506+056 association to make sense, we must either accept this low flux ratio or suppose that only some rare sub-population of blazars is capable of high-energy neutrino production. For example, if we consider neutrino production only in blazar flares, we expect the flux ratio of between $10^{-3}$ and $10^{-1}$ to be consistent with a single coincident observation of a neutrino alert and flaring $γ$-ray blazar. These constraints should be interpreted in the context of the likelihood models used to find the IC170922A--TXS~0506+056 association, which assumes a fixed power-law neutrino spectrum of $E^{-2.13}$ for all blazars.

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