Adaptive approaches, allowing for more flexible trial design, have been proposed for individually randomized trials to save time or reduce sample size. However, adaptive designs for cluster-randomized trials in which groups of participants rather than individuals are randomized to treatment arms are less common. Motivated by a cluster-randomized trial designed to assess the effectiveness of a machine-learning based clinical decision support system for physicians treating patients with depression, two Bayesian adaptive designs for cluster-randomized trials are proposed to allow for early stopping for efficacy at pre-planned interim analyses. The difference between the two designs lies in the way that participants are sequentially recruited. Given a maximum number of clusters as well as maximum cluster size allowed in the trial, one design sequentially recruits clusters with the given maximum cluster size, while the other recruits all clusters at the beginning of the trial but sequentially enrolls individual participants until the trial is stopped early for efficacy or the final analysis has been reached. The design operating characteristics are explored via simulations for a variety of scenarios and two outcome types for the two designs. The simulation results show that for different outcomes the design choice may be different. We make recommendations for designs of Bayesian adaptive cluster-randomized trial based on the simulation results.
Clinical trials usually involve sequential patient entry. When designing a clinical trial, it is often desirable to include a provision for interim analyses of accumulating data with the potential for stopping the trial early. We review Bayesian sequential clinical trial designs based on posterior probabilities, posterior predictive probabilities, and decision-theoretic frameworks. A pertinent question is whether Bayesian sequential designs need to be adjusted for the planning of interim analyses. We answer this question from three perspectives: a frequentist-oriented perspective, a calibrated…
We propose a new integrated phase I/II trial design to identify the most efficacious dose combination that also satisfies certain safety requirements for drug-combination trials. We first take a Bayesian copula-type model for dose finding in phase I. After identifying a set of admissible doses, we immediately move the entire set forward to phase II. We propose a novel adaptive randomization scheme to favor assigning patients to more efficacious dose-combination arms. Our adaptive randomization scheme takes into account both the point estimate and variability of efficacy. By using a moving refe…
We consider methods for causal inference in randomized trials nested within cohorts of trial-eligible individuals, including those who are not randomized. We show how baseline covariate data from the entire cohort, and treatment and outcome data only from randomized individuals, can be used to identify potential (counterfactual) outcome means and average treatment effects in the target population of all eligible individuals. We review identifiability conditions, propose estimators, and assess the estimators' finite-sample performance in simulation studies. As an illustration, we apply the esti…
Cluster-randomized trials are often conducted to assess vaccine effects. Defining estimands of interest before conducting a trial is integral to the alignment between a study's objectives and the data to be collected and analyzed. This paper considers estimands and estimators for overall, indirect, and total vaccine effects in trials where clusters of individuals are randomized to vaccine or control. The scenario is considered where individuals self-select whether to participate in the trial and the outcome of interest is measured on all individuals in each cluster. Unlike the overall, indirec…
To generalize inferences from a randomized trial to the target population of all trial-eligible individuals, investigators can use nested trial designs, where the randomized individuals are nested within a cohort of trial-eligible individuals, including those who are not offered or refuse randomization. In these designs, data on baseline covariates are collected from the entire cohort, and treatment and outcome data need only be collected from randomized individuals. In this paper, we describe nested trial designs that improve research economy by collecting additional baseline covariate data a…
We describe methods that extend (generalize or transport) causal inferences from cluster randomized trials to a target population of clusters, under a general nonparametric model that allows for arbitrary within-cluster dependence. We propose doubly robust estimators of potential outcome means in the target population that exploit individual-level data on covariates and outcomes to improve efficiency and are appropriate for use with machine learning methods. We illustrate the methods using a cluster randomized trial of influenza vaccination strategies conducted in 818 nursing homes nested in a…
When treatment effect modifiers influence the decision to participate in a randomized trial, the average treatment effect in the population represented by the randomized individuals will differ from the effect in other populations. In this tutorial, we consider methods for extending causal inferences about time-fixed treatments from a trial to a new target population of non-participants, using data from a completed randomized trial and baseline covariate data from a sample from the target population. We examine methods based on modeling the expectation of the outcome, the probability of partic…
The micro-randomized trial (MRT) is a new experimental design which allows for the investigation of the proximal effects of a "just-in-time" treatment, often provided via a mobile device as part of a mobile health intervention. As with a traditional randomized controlled trial, computing the minimum required sample size to achieve a desired power is a crucial step in designing an MRT. We present MRT-SS Calculator, an online sample-size calculator for micro-randomized trials, built with R Shiny. MRT-SS Calculator requires specification of time-varying patterns for the proximal treatment effect …
Numerous publications have now addressed the principles of designing, analyzing, and reporting the results of, stepped-wedge cluster randomized trials. In contrast, there is little research available pertaining to the design and analysis of multi-arm stepped-wedge cluster randomized trials, utilized to evaluate the effectiveness of multiple experimental interventions. In this paper, we address this by explaining how the required sample size in these multi-arm trials can be ascertained when data are to be analyzed using a linear mixed model. We then go on to describe how the design of such tria…
When individuals participating in a randomized trial differ with respect to the distribution of effect modifiers compared compared with the target population where the trial results will be used, treatment effect estimates from the trial may not directly apply to target population. Methods for extending -- generalizing or transporting -- causal inferences from the trial to the target population rely on conditional exchangeability assumptions between randomized and non-randomized individuals. The validity of these assumptions is often uncertain or controversial and investigators need to examine…
Brown University School of Public Health（布朗大学公共卫生学院）；Center for Gerontology and Health Care Research, Brown University School of Public Health（布朗大学公共卫生学院老年学与医疗保健研究中心）；Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health（哈佛陈曾熙公共卫生学院）；Richard A. and Susan F. Smith Center for Outcomes Research, Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center, Harvard Medical School（理查德·A和苏珊·F·史密斯结果研究中心，贝斯以色列女执事医疗中心，哈佛医学院）
We propose a test-based elastic integrative analysis of the randomized trial and real-world data to estimate treatment effect heterogeneity with a vector of known effect modifiers. When the real-world data are not subject to bias, our approach combines the trial and real-world data for efficient estimation. Utilizing the trial design, we construct a test to decide whether or not to use real-world data. We characterize the asymptotic distribution of the test-based estimator under local alternatives. We provide a data-adaptive procedure to select the test threshold that promises the smallest mea…
We develop a Bayesian nonparametric (BNP) approach to evaluate the causal effect of treatment in a randomized trial where a nonterminal event may be censored by a terminal event, but not vice versa (i.e., semi-competing risks). Based on the idea of principal stratification, we define a novel estimand for the causal effect of treatment on the nonterminal event. We introduce identification assumptions, indexed by a sensitivity parameter, and show how to draw inference using our BNP approach. We conduct simulation studies and illustrate our methodology using data from a brain cancer trial.
Clinical trials with a hybrid control arm (a control arm constructed from a combination of randomized patients and real-world data on patients receiving usual care in standard clinical practice) have the potential to decrease the cost of randomized trials while increasing the proportion of trial patients given access to novel therapeutics. However, due to stringent trial inclusion criteria and differences in care and data quality between trials and community practice, trial patients may have systematically different outcomes compared to their real-world counterparts. We propose a new method fo…
Phase III randomized clinical trials play a monumentally critical role in the evaluation of new medical products. Because of the intrinsic nature of uncertainty embedded in our capability in assessing the efficacy of a medical product, interpretation of trial results relies on statistical principles to control the error of false positives below desirable level. The well-established statistical hypothesis testing procedure suffers from two major limitations, namely, the lack of flexibility in the thresholds to claim success and the lack of capability of controlling the total number of false pos…
A dynamic treatment regimen (DTR) is a pre-specified sequence of decision rules which maps baseline or time-varying measurements on an individual to a recommended intervention or set of interventions. Sequential multiple assignment randomized trials (SMARTs) represent an important data collection tool for informing the construction of effective DTRs. A common primary aim in a SMART is the marginal mean comparison between two or more of the DTRs embedded in the trial. This manuscript develops a mixed effects modeling and estimation approach for these primary aim comparisons based on a continuou…
Methods for extending -- generalizing or transporting -- inferences from a randomized trial to a target population involve conditioning on a large set of covariates that is sufficient for rendering the randomized and non-randomized groups exchangeable. Yet, decision-makers are often interested in examining treatment effects in subgroups of the target population defined in terms of only a few discrete covariates. Here, we propose methods for estimating subgroup-specific potential outcome means and average treatment effects in generalizability and transportability analyses, using outcome model-b…
The use of information from real world to assess the effectiveness of medical products is becoming increasingly popular and more acceptable by regulatory agencies. According to a strategic real-world evidence framework published by U.S. Food and Drug Administration, a hybrid randomized controlled trial that augments internal control arm with real-world data is a pragmatic approach worth more attention. In this paper, we aim to improve on existing matching designs for such a hybrid randomized controlled trial. In particular, we propose to match the entire concurrent randomized clinical trial (R…
The use and development of mobile interventions are experiencing rapid growth. In "just-in-time" mobile interventions, treatments are provided via a mobile device and they are intended to help an individual make healthy decisions "in the moment," and thus have a proximal, near future impact. Currently the development of mobile interventions is proceeding at a much faster pace than that of associated data science methods. A first step toward developing data-based methods is to provide an experimental design for testing the proximal effects of these just-in-time treatments. In this paper, we pro…
Pragmatic randomized trials are designed to provide evidence for clinical decision-making rather than regulatory approval. Common features of these trials include the inclusion of heterogeneous or diverse patient populations in a wide range of care settings, the use of active treatment strategies as comparators, unblinded treatment assignment, and the study of long-term, clinically relevant outcomes. These features can greatly increase the usefulness of the trial results for patients, clinicians, and other stakeholders. However, these features also introduce an increased risk of non-adherence,…
Cluster-level dynamic treatment regimens can be used to guide sequential, intervention or treatment decision-making at the cluster level in order to improve outcomes at the individual or patient-level. In a cluster-level DTR, the intervention or treatment is potentially adapted and re-adapted over time based on changes in the cluster that could be impacted by prior intervention, including based on aggregate measures of the individuals or patients that comprise it. Cluster-randomized sequential multiple assignment randomized trials (SMARTs) can be used to answer multiple open questions preventi…
The primary analysis of randomized screening trials for cancer typically adheres to the intention-to-screen principle, measuring cancer-specific mortality reductions between screening and control arms. These mortality reductions result from a combination of the screening regimen, screening technology and the effect of the early, screening-induced, treatment. This motivates addressing these different aspects separately. Here we are interested in the causal effect of early versus delayed treatments on cancer mortality among the screening-detectable subgroup, which under certain assumptions is es…
Background: Randomized controlled trials are often used to inform policy and practice for broad populations. The average treatment effect (ATE) for a target population, however, may be different from the ATE observed in a trial if there are effect modifiers whose distribution in the target population is different that from that in the trial. Methods exist to use trial data to estimate the target population ATE, provided the distributions of treatment effect modifiers are observed in both the trial and target population -- an assumption that may not hold in practice. Methods: The proposed sensi…
The primary outcome of Randomized clinical Trials (RCTs) are typically dichotomous, continuous, multivariate continuous, or time-to-event. However, what if this outcome is unstructured, e.g., a list of variables of mixed types, longitudinal sequences, images, audio recordings, etc. When the outcome is unstructured it is unclear how to assess RCT success and how to compute sample size. We show that kernel methods offer natural extensions to traditional biostatistics methods. We demonstrate our approach with the measurements of computer usage in a cohort of aging participants, some of which will…
In clinical trials, there is potential to improve precision and reduce the required sample size by appropriately adjusting for baseline variables in the statistical analysis. This is called covariate adjustment. Despite recommendations by regulatory agencies in favor of covariate adjustment, it remains underutilized leading to inefficient trials. We address two obstacles that make it challenging to use covariate adjustment. A first obstacle is the incompatibility of many covariate adjusted estimators with commonly used boundaries in group sequential designs (GSDs). A second obstacle is the unc…
A sequential multiple assignment randomized trial (SMART) facilitates comparison of multiple adaptive treatment strategies (ATSs) simultaneously. Previous studies have established a framework to test the homogeneity of multiple ATSs by a global Wald test through inverse probability weighting. SMARTs are generally lengthier than classical clinical trials due to the sequential nature of treatment randomization in multiple stages. Thus, it would be beneficial to add interim analyses allowing for early stop if overwhelming efficacy is observed. We introduce group sequential methods to SMARTs to fa…
We propose new, optimal methods for analyzing randomized trials, when it is suspected that treatment effects may differ in two predefined subpopulations. Such sub-populations could be defined by a biomarker or risk factor measured at baseline. The goal is to simultaneously learn which subpopulations benefit from an experimental treatment, while providing strong control of the familywise Type I error rate. We formalize this as a multiple testing problem and show it is computationally infeasible to solve using existing techniques. Our solution involves a novel approach, in which we first transfo…
Cluster-randomized trials (CRTs) involve randomizing entire groups of participants -- called clusters -- to treatment arms but are often comprised of a limited or fixed number of available clusters. While covariate adjustment can account for chance imbalances between treatment arms and increase statistical efficiency in individually-randomized trials, analytical methods for individual-level covariate adjustment in small CRTs have received little attention to date. In this paper, we systematically investigate, through extensive simulations, the operating characteristics of propensity score weig…
Covariate adjustment is an important tool in the analysis of randomized clinical trials and observational studies. It can be used to increase efficiency and thus power, and to reduce possible bias. While most statistical tests in randomized clinical trials are nonparametric in nature, approaches for covariate adjustment typically rely on specific regression models, such as the linear model for a continuous outcome, the logistic regression model for a dichotomous outcome and the Cox model for survival time. Several recent efforts have focused on model-free covariate adjustment. This paper makes…
