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arXiv 2201.00754physics.soc-ph
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并发对 Markovian 时序网络中流行病传播的影响

Effects of concurrency on epidemic spreading in Markovian temporal networks

Ruodan Liu, Masaki Ogura, Elohim Fonseca Dos Reis, Naoki Masuda

AI总结:

本文构建可调节并发程度且保持边统计与聚合网络结构一致的 Markovian 时序网络模型,发现并发在流行病阈值附近小幅促进传播,而在高感染率下多数情况会抑制传播。

摘要:

边的并发性由在给定时间点共享同一节点的边的数量来量化,它可能是时序网络中流行病过程的重要决定因素。我们提出了理论上可处理的 Markovian 时序网络模型,其中每条边在连续时间内于活跃与非活跃状态之间切换。不同模型具有不同的并发程度,同时我们可以调整这些模型,使其共享相同的边激活与去激活统计特性(因而每条边处于活跃状态的时间比例相同)以及聚合(即静态)网络的结构。我们解析计算了每个模型中共享一个节点的边的并发程度。随后,在所提出的时序网络模型上,我们数值研究了并发性对随机的易感—感染—易感(SIS)和易感—感染—康复(SIR)动力学中流行病传播的影响。我们发现,并发性会增强流行病阈值附近的传播,但这种效应在许多情况下较小。此外,当感染率显著高于流行病阈值时,并发性在多数情况下会抑制流行病传播。总之,我们的数值模拟表明,在我们的模型中,并发性对流行病传播的增强影响在流行病阈值附近始终存在,但程度有限。所提出的时序网络模型有望用于研究并发性对网络上各种集体动力学的影响,包括传染病及其他动力学。

英文摘要:

The concurrency of edges, quantified by the number of edges that share a common node at a given time point, may be an important determinant of epidemic processes in temporal networks. We propose theoretically tractable Markovian temporal network models in which each edge flips between the active and inactive states in continuous time. The different models have different amounts of concurrency while we can tune the models to share the same statistics of edge activation and deactivation (and hence the fraction of time for which each edge is active) and the structure of the aggregate (i.e., static) network. We analytically calculate the amount of concurrency of edges sharing a node for each model. We then numerically study effects of concurrency on epidemic spreading in the stochastic susceptible-infectious-susceptible and susceptible-infectious-recovered dynamics on the proposed temporal network models. We find that the concurrency enhances epidemic spreading near the epidemic threshold while this effect is small in many cases. Furthermore, when the infection rate is substantially larger than the epidemic threshold, the concurrency suppresses epidemic spreading in a majority of cases. In sum, our numerical simulations suggest that the impact of concurrency on enhancing epidemic spreading within our model is consistently present near the epidemic threshold but modest. The proposed temporal network models are expected to be useful for investigating effects of concurrency on various collective dynamics on networks including both infectious and other dynamics.

机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来,可能存在错误,请以论文正文为准。

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