股票价格和宏观经济指标：在印度背景下调查相关性
Stock prices and Macroeconomic indicators: Investigating a correlation in Indian context
摘要：
本文的目的是发现股票市场价格和基本宏观经济指标之间存在的关系。我们建立了一个向量自回归（VAR）模型，包括九个主要的宏观经济指标（利率，通货膨胀，汇率，货币供应量，国内生产总值，外国直接投资，贸易占国内生产总值的比例，石油价格，黄金价格），然后试图预测他们未来5年。最后，我们计算这些预测值与BSE Sensex收盘价的交叉相关性。我们发现印度经济中收盘价与汇率和货币供应量的相关性非常高。
英文摘要：
The objective of this paper is to find the existence of a relationship between stock market prices and the fundamental macroeconomic indicators. We build a Vector Auto Regression (VAR) model comprising of nine major macroeconomic indicators (interest rate, inflation, exchange rate, money supply, gdp, fdi, trade-gdp ratio, oil prices, gold prices) and then try to forecast them for next 5 years. Finally we calculate cross-correlation of these forecasted values with the BSE Sensex closing price for each of those years. We find very high correlation of the closing price with exchange rate and money supply in the Indian economy.
机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来，可能存在错误，请以论文正文为准。
