作为存量-流量一致体系的国民账户，第1部分：实际账户
National Accounts as a Stock-Flow Consistent System, Part 1: The Real Accounts
摘要：
2008年的经济危机是无法用当时的宏观经济学模型预测的。因此，宏观经济学需要新的工具。我们引入了一个基于国民账户的模型，该模型显示了宏观经济部门是如何相互关联的。这些联系解释了经济周期从一个行业到另一个行业、从金融部门到实体经济的传播。这些语言不能用一般均衡类型的模型来解释。我们的模型描述了一个经济体的国民账户（NA）的实际部分。这些账户以货币流动图的形式在以下宏观部门之间呈现：非金融企业、金融企业、家庭、政府和世界其他地区。该模型包含NA中的所有主要项目，相应的模拟模型为59个关键宏观经济量创建了无限未来的时间路径。芬兰1975-2012年的NA数据用于校准模型的参数，模型遵循历史数据，具有足够的准确性。我们的研究是系统分析宏观模型的基础，可以解释经济生产系统中的正反馈和负反馈。这些反馈产生于经济单位之间以及实体市场和金融市场之间的相互作用。JEL E01，E10。关键词：存量-流量模型，国民经济核算，模拟模型。
英文摘要：
The 2008 economic crisis was not forecastable by at that time existing models of macroeconomics. Thus macroeconomics needs new tools. We introduce a model based on National Accounts that shows how macroeconomic sectors are interconnected. These connections explain the spread of business cycles from one industry to another and from financial sector to the real economy. These lingages cannot be explained by General Equilibrium type of models. Our model describes the real part of National Accounts (NA) of an economy. The accounts are presented in the form of a money flow diagram between the following macro-sectors: Non-financial firms, financial firms, households, government, and rest of the world. The model contains all main items in NA and the corresponding simulation model creates time paths for 59 key macroeconomic quantities for an unlimited future. Finnish data of NA from time period 1975-2012 is used in calibrating the parameters of the model, and the model follows the historical data with sufficient accuracy. Our study serves as a basis for systems analytic macro-models that can explain the positive and negative feed-backs in the production system of an economy. These feed-backs are born from interactions between economic units and between real and financial markets. JEL E01, E10. Key words: Stock-Flow Models, National Accounts, Simulation model.
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