具有自反信心的资本稀缺模型中的经济危机
Economic Crises in a Model with Capital Scarcity and Self-Reflexive Confidence
摘要：
在《通论》中，凯恩斯指出，经济状态取决于预期，而这些预期可能会突然波动。在这项工作中，我们开发了一个多重均衡的行为经济周期模型，可以解释需求或供给崩溃，由于消费者信心的突然下降，影响消费倾向和投资。我们发现，根据模型参数，四个不同的性质的结果可以出现，其特征是资本稀缺和/或需求危机的频率。在没有政策措施的情况下，由于“节俭悖论”，当参数发生变化时，这种危机的持续时间可能会增加几个数量级。我们的模型提出了政策建议，以防止经济陷入长期的低产出，低投资和高失业率。
英文摘要：
In the General Theory, Keynes remarked that the economy's state depends on expectations, and that these expectations can be subject to sudden swings. In this work, we develop a multiple equilibria behavioural business cycle model that can account for demand or supply collapses due to abrupt drops in consumer confidence, which affect both consumption propensity and investment. We show that, depending on the model parameters, four qualitatively different outcomes can emerge, characterised by the frequency of capital scarcity and/or demand crises. In the absence of policy measures, the duration of such crises can increase by orders of magnitude when parameters are varied, as a result of the "paradox of thrift". Our model suggests policy recommendations that prevent the economy from getting trapped in extended stretches of low output, low investment and high unemployment.
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