This article compares ten recently proposed neural networks and proposes two ensemble neural network-based models for blood glucose prediction. All of them are tested under the same dataset, preprocessing workflow, and tools using the OhioT1DM Dataset at three different prediction horizons: 30, 60, and 120 minutes. We compare their performance using the most common metrics in blood glucose prediction and rank the best-performing ones using three methods devised for the statistical comparison of the performance of multiple algorithms: scmamp, model confidence set, and superior predictive ability. Our analysis highlights those models with the highest probability of being the best predictors, estimates the increase in error of the models that perform more poorly with respect to the best ones, and provides a guide for their use in clinical practice.
MetaboNet-Bench: A Multi-modal Benchmark for Glucose Forecasting in Type 1 Diabetes
Department of Genetics, Stanford University School of Medicine（斯坦福大学医学院遗传学系）；Replica Health；Boston Children’s Hospital, Harvard Medical School（哈佛医学院波士顿儿童医院）；Diabetes Research Institute, Mills-Peninsula Medical Center（米尔斯半岛医学中心糖尿病研究所）
Institute for Basic Science (IBS)（基础科学研究院）；Seoul National University（首尔大学）；Pohang University of Science and Technology（浦项科技大学）
Machine learning shows remarkable success for recognizing patterns in data. Here we apply the machine learning (ML) for the diagnosis of early stage diabetes, which is known as a challenging task in medicine. Blood glucose levels are tightly regulated by two counter-regulatory hormones, insulin and glucagon, and the failure of the glucose homeostasis leads to the common metabolic disease, diabetes mellitus. It is a chronic disease that has a long latent period the complicates detection of the disease at an early stage. The vast majority of diabetics result from that diminished effectiveness of…
Blood glucose value prediction is an important task in diabetes management. While it is reported that glucose concentration is sensitive to social context such as mood, physical activity, stress, diet, alongside the influence of diabetes pathologies, we need more research on data and methodologies to incorporate and evaluate signals about such temporal context into prediction models. Person-generated data sources, such as actively contributed surveys as well as passively mined data from social media offer opportunity to capture such context, however the self-reported nature and sparsity of suc…
We propose a dual-hormone delivery strategy by exploiting deep reinforcement learning (RL) for people with Type 1 Diabetes (T1D). Specifically, double dilated recurrent neural networks (RNN) are used to learn the hormone delivery strategy, trained by a variant of Q-learning, whose inputs are raw data of glucose \& meal carbohydrate and outputs are dual-hormone (insulin and glucagon) delivery. Without prior knowledge of the glucose-insulin metabolism, we run the method on the UVA/Padova simulator. Hundreds days of self-play are performed to obtain a generalized model, then importance sampling i…
Bern University Hospital “Inselspital”（伯尔尼大学医院“Inselspital”）
A deep learning network was used to predict future blood glucose levels, as this can permit diabetes patients to take action before imminent hyperglycaemia and hypoglycaemia. A sequential model with one long-short-term memory (LSTM) layer, one bidirectional LSTM layer and several fully connected layers was used to predict blood glucose levels for different prediction horizons. The method was trained and tested on 26 datasets from 20 real patients. The proposed network outperforms the baseline methods in terms of all evaluation criteria.
Imperial College London（伦敦帝国学院）；University College London（伦敦大学学院）
People with Type 1 diabetes (T1D) require regular exogenous infusion of insulin to maintain their blood glucose concentration in a therapeutically adequate target range. Although the artificial pancreas and continuous glucose monitoring have been proven to be effective in achieving closed-loop control, significant challenges still remain due to the high complexity of glucose dynamics and limitations in the technology. In this work, we propose a novel deep reinforcement learning model for single-hormone (insulin) and dual-hormone (insulin and glucagon) delivery. In particular, the delivery stra…
CNRS-LIMSI（法国国家科学研究中心-LIMSI）；Université Paris-Saclay（巴黎萨克雷大学）；Université Paris 8（巴黎第八大学）；Samovar；CNRS（法国国家科学研究中心）；Télécom SudParis（南巴黎电信学院）；Institut Polytechnique de Paris（巴黎综合理工学院）
Due to the sensitive nature of diabetes-related data, preventing them from being shared between studies, progress in the field of glucose prediction is hard to assess. To address this issue, we present GLYFE (GLYcemia Forecasting Evaluation), a benchmark of machine-learning-based glucose-predictive models. To ensure the reproducibility of the results and the usability of the benchmark in the future, we provide extensive details about the data flow. Two datasets are used, the first comprising 10 in-silico adults from the UVA/Padova Type 1 Diabetes Metabolic Simulator (T1DMS) and the second bein…
We evaluate the benefits of combining different offline and online data assimilation methodologies to improve personalized blood glucose prediction with type 2 diabetes self-monitoring data. We collect self-monitoring data (nutritional reports and pre- and post-prandial glucose measurements) from 4 individuals with diabetes and 2 individuals without diabetes. We write online to refer to methods that update state and parameters sequentially as nutrition and glucose data are received, and offline to refer to methods that estimate parameters over a fixed data set, distributed over a time window c…
An algorithm based on PLS regression has been developed and optimized for measuring blood glucose level using the infra-red transmission spectrum of blood samples. A set of blood samples were tagged with their glucose concentration using an accurate invasive glucometer and analyzed using a standard FTIR spectrometer. Using the developed algorithm, the results of the FTIR spectroscopy of the samples were analyzed to find the glucose concentration in the samples. The obtained glucose concentration by the algorithm were in good agreement with the results obtained by the standard glucometer, and t…
A Real-Time Digital Twin for Type 1 Diabetes using Simulation-Based Inference
University of Bern, Switzerland（伯尔尼大学）；Department of Diabetes, Endocrinology, Nutritional Medicine and Metabolism, Inselspital, Bern University Hospital, University of Bern, Switzerland（糖尿病、内分泌学、营养医学和代谢学部门，伯尔尼大学医院，伯尔尼大学，瑞士）；Diabetes Center Berne, Switzerland（伯恩糖尿病中心）；University of Tübingen, Germany（图宾根大学）
To best of the authors knowledge, this article presents the first-ever non-invasive glucometer that takes into account serum glucose for high accuracy. In case of blood glucose measurement, serum glucose value has always been considered precise blood glucose value during prandial modes. Serum glucose can be measured in laboratory and more stable glucose level compare to capillary glucose. However, this invasive approach is not convenient for frequent measurement. Sometimes, Conventional invasive blood glucose measurement may be responsible for cause of trauma and chance of blood related infect…
Use of Continuous Glucose Monitoring with Machine Learning to Identify Metabolic Subphenotypes and Inform Precision Lifestyle Changes
Department of Genetics, Stanford University（遗传学系，斯坦福大学）；Stanford University（斯坦福大学）；Google Research（谷歌研究）；Systems and Biomedical Engineering Department, Cairo University（系统与生物医学工程系，开罗大学）；Department of International Health, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health（国际健康系，约翰·霍普金斯布劳尔学校公共卫生学院）；Department of Medicine, Stanford University（医学系，斯坦福大学）
College of Health Solutions, Arizona State University（亚利桑那州立大学健康解决方案学院）；School of Computing and Augmented Intelligence, Arizona State University（亚利桑那州立大学计算与增强智能学院）；Department of Endocrinology, Mayo Clinic Arizona（梅奥诊所亚利桑那分部内分泌科）
Research in diabetes, especially when it comes to building data-driven models to forecast future glucose values, is hindered by the sensitive nature of the data. Because researchers do not share the same data between studies, progress is hard to assess. This paper aims at comparing the most promising algorithms in the field, namely Feedforward Neural Networks (FFNN), Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) Recurrent Neural Networks, Extreme Learning Machines (ELM), Support Vector Regression (SVR) and Gaussian Processes (GP). They are personalized and trained on a population of 10 virtual children from t…
Biosensor data has the potential ability to improve disease control and detection. However, the analysis of these data under free-living conditions is not feasible with current statistical techniques. To address this challenge, we introduce a new functional representation of biosensor data, termed the glucodensity, together with a data analysis framework based on distances between them. The new data analysis procedure is illustrated through an application in diabetes with continuous-time glucose monitoring (CGM) data. In this domain, we show marked improvement with respect to state of the art …
We propose a model-free artificial pancreas (AP) for people with type 1 diabetes. The algorithmic parameters are tuned to a virtual population of 1,000,000 individuals, and the AP repeatedly estimates the basal and bolus insulin requirements necessary for maintaining normal blood glucose levels. Therefore, the AP can be used without healthcare personnel or engineers customizing the algorithm to each user. The estimates are based on bodyweight, measurements from a continuous glucose monitor (CGM), and estimates of the meal carbohydrate contents. In a virtual clinical trial with all 1,000,000 in…
Due to the chronic nature of diabetes, patient self-care factors play an important role in any treatment plan. In order to understand the behaviour of patients in response to medical advice on self-care, clinicians often conduct cross-sectional surveys. When analysing the survey data, statistical machine learning methods can potentially provide additional insight into the data either through deeper understanding of the patterns present or making information available to clinicians in an intuitive manner. In this study, we use self-organising maps (SOMs) to visualise the responses of patients w…
As continuous glucose monitors (CGMs) are used increasingly by diabetic patients, new and intuitive tools are needed to help patients and their physicians use these streams of data to improve blood glucose management. In this paper, we propose a daily CGM Score which can be calculated from CGM data. The calculation involves assigning grades and scores to 80-minute periods of CGM data, and then aggregating the results. Scores for an individual patient, or among a set of patients, can then be compared and contrasted, and longitudinal studies of CGM data can also be accomplished.
