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arXiv 2109.01419cs.LGcs.AI
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使用共享和专门的注意力机制构建业务流程预测的可解释模型

Building Interpretable Models for Business Process Prediction using Shared and Specialised Attention Mechanisms

Queensland University of Technology(昆士兰科技大学);IBM Research(IBM研究院)

Bemali Wickramanayake, Zhipeng He, Chun Ouyang, Catarina Moreira, Yue Xu, Renuka Sindhgatta

摘要:

在本文中,我们通过构建能够告知什么和为什么是预测的可解释模型来解决预测过程分析中的“黑箱”问题。预测流程分析是一门新兴的学科,致力于为现代组织提供业务流程智能。它使用事件日志作为训练预测模型的关键输入,事件日志以多维序列数据的形式捕获流程执行跟踪。这些预测模型通常基于深度学习技术构建,可用于预测业务流程执行的未来状态。我们应用注意力机制来实现模型的可解释性。我们提出i)两种类型的注意力:事件注意力,以捕捉特定过程事件对预测的影响,以及属性注意力,以揭示事件的哪些属性影响了预测;以及ii)两种注意力机制:共享注意力机制和专用注意力机制,以反映何时对各个输入特征构造属性注意力的不同设计决策(专用的)或使用所有输入特征向量的级联特征张量(共享的)。这导致了两种不同的基于注意力的模型,两者都是可解释的模型,将可解释性直接纳入过程预测模型的结构中。我们使用真实数据集对所提出的模型进行实验评估,并对模型的准确性和可解释性进行比较分析,并从评估和分析结果中得出见解。

英文摘要:

In this paper, we address the "black-box" problem in predictive process analytics by building interpretable models that are capable to inform both what and why is a prediction. Predictive process analytics is a newly emerged discipline dedicated to providing business process intelligence in modern organisations. It uses event logs, which capture process execution traces in the form of multi-dimensional sequence data, as the key input to train predictive models. These predictive models, often built upon deep learning techniques, can be used to make predictions about the future states of business process execution. We apply attention mechanism to achieve model interpretability. We propose i) two types of attentions: event attention to capture the impact of specific process events on a prediction, and attribute attention to reveal which attribute(s) of an event influenced the prediction; and ii) two attention mechanisms: shared attention mechanism and specialised attention mechanism to reflect different design decisions in when to construct attribute attention on individual input features (specialised) or using the concatenated feature tensor of all input feature vectors (shared). These lead to two distinct attention-based models, and both are interpretable models that incorporate interpretability directly into the structure of a process predictive model. We conduct experimental evaluation of the proposed models using real-life dataset, and comparative analysis between the models for accuracy and interpretability, and draw insights from the evaluation and analysis results.

机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来,可能存在错误,请以论文正文为准。

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