Big data and business analytics are critical drivers of business and societal transformations. Uplift models support a firm's decision-making by predicting the change of a customer's behavior due to a treatment. Prior work examines models for single treatments and binary customer responses. The paper extends corresponding approaches by developing uplift models for multiple treatments and continuous outcomes. This facilitates selecting an optimal treatment from a set of alternatives and estimating treatment effects in the form of business outcomes of continuous scale. Another contribution emerges from an evaluation of an uplift model's interpretability, whereas prior studies focus almost exclusively on predictive performance. To achieve these goals, the paper develops revenue uplift models for multiple treatments based on a recently introduced algorithm for causal machine learning, the causal forest. Empirical experimentation using two real-world marketing data sets demonstrates the advantages of the proposed modeling approach over benchmarks and standard marketing practices.
School of Business and Economics, Humboldt-University of Berlin（柏林洪堡大学经济与商学院）；Institute of Computer Science, Polish Academy of Sciences（波兰科学院计算机科学研究所）
Uplift models support decision-making in marketing campaign planning. Estimating the causal effect of a marketing treatment, an uplift model facilitates targeting communication to responsive customers and efficient allocation of marketing budgets. Research into uplift models focuses on conversion models to maximize incremental sales. The paper introduces uplift modeling strategies for maximizing incremental revenues. If customers differ in their spending behavior, revenue maximization is a more plausible business objective compared to maximizing conversions. The proposed methodology entails a …
Online advertising revenues account for an increasing share of publishers' revenue streams, especially for small and medium-sized publishers who depend on the advertisement networks of tech companies such as Google and Facebook. Thus publishers may benefit significantly from accurate online advertising revenue forecasts to better manage their website monetization strategies. However, publishers who only have access to their own revenue data lack a holistic view of the total ad market of publishers, which in turn limits their ability to generate insights into their own future online advertising…
University of Virginia（弗吉尼亚大学）；IBM Research（IBM研究院）
Data-driven pricing strategies are becoming increasingly common, where customers are offered a personalized price based on features that are predictive of their valuation of a product. It is desirable for this pricing policy to be simple and interpretable, so it can be verified, checked for fairness, and easily implemented. However, efforts to incorporate machine learning into a pricing framework often lead to complex pricing policies which are not interpretable, resulting in slow adoption in practice. We present a customized, prescriptive tree-based algorithm that distills knowledge from a co…
Promotions and discounts are essential components of modern e-commerce platforms, where they are often used to incentivize customers towards purchase completion. Promotions also affect revenue and may incur a monetary loss that is often limited by a dedicated promotional budget. We study the Online Constrained Multiple-Choice Promotions Personalization Problem, where the optimization goal is to select for each customer which promotion to present in order to maximize purchase completions, while also complying with global budget limitations. Our work formalizes the problem as an Online Multiple …
Benchmarking for Deep Uplift Modeling in Online Marketing
Guangdong Laboratory of Artificial Intelligence and Digital Economy (SZ)（广东省人工智能与数字经济实验室（深圳））；Tencent（腾讯）；Shenzhen University（深圳大学）；Renmin University of China（中国人民大学）；Shenzhen Technology University（深圳技术大学）
Promotions and discounts have become key components of modern e-commerce platforms. For online travel platforms (OTPs), popular promotions include room upgrades, free meals and transportation services. By offering these promotions, customers can get more value for their money, while both the OTP and its travel partners may grow their loyal customer base. However, the promotions usually incur a cost that, if uncontrolled, can become unsustainable. Consequently, for a promotion to be viable, its associated costs must be balanced by incremental revenue within set financial constraints. Personaliz…
The COVID-19 pandemic has significantly impacted the tourism and hospitality sector. Public policies such as travel restrictions and stay-at-home orders had significantly affected tourist activities and service businesses' operations and profitability. To this end, it is essential to develop an interpretable forecast model that supports managerial and organizational decision-making. We developed DemandNet, a novel deep learning framework for predicting time series data under the influence of the COVID-19 pandemic. The framework starts by selecting the top static and dynamic features embedded i…
End-to-End Cost-Effective Incentive Recommendation under Budget Constraint with Uplift Modeling
Gaoling School of Artificial Intelligence, Renmin University of China（中国人民大学高瓴人工智能学院）；Guangdong Laboratory of Artificial Intelligence and Digital Economy (SZ)（广东省人工智能与数字经济实验室（深圳））；FiT, Tencent（腾讯FiT）
Robust Uplift Modeling with Large-Scale Contexts for Real-time Marketing
Gaoling School of Artificial Intelligence, Renmin University of China（中国人民大学高瓴人工智能学院）；School of Statistics, Renmin University of China（中国人民大学统计学院）；Department of Computer Science and Technology, Zhejiang University（浙江大学计算机科学与技术学院）；Kuaishou Technology（快手科技）；College of Computer Science and Software Engineering, Shenzhen University（深圳大学计算机与软件学院）；Department of Computer Science, City University of Hong Kong（香港城市大学计算机系）
University of Warwick（华威大学）；The Alan Turing Institute（艾伦·图灵研究所）
We study the problem of estimating potential revenue or demand at business facilities and understanding its generating mechanism. This problem arises in different fields such as operation research or urban science, and more generally, it is crucial for businesses' planning and decision making. We develop a Bayesian spatial interaction model, henceforth BSIM, which provides probabilistic predictions about revenues generated by a particular business location provided their features and the potential customers' characteristics in a given region. BSIM explicitly accounts for the competition among …
