arXivDaily arXiv每日学术速递 周一至周五更新
arXiv 2108.00859eess.SPcs.AIcs.LGphysics.data-anstat.AP
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使用机器学习的风速和风力的时空估计:预测,不确定性和技术潜力

Spatio-temporal estimation of wind speed and wind power using machine learning: predictions, uncertainty and technical potential

Federico Amato, Fabian Guignard, Alina Walch, Nahid Mohajeri, Jean-Louis Scartezzini, Mikhail Kanevski

摘要:

过去几十年风力发电能力的增长表明,风能可以促进世界许多地区的能源转型。由于风力发电的时空变化和相关不确定性具有高度可变性和建模复杂性,因此对风力发电的时空变化和相关不确定性的量化对于能源规划者来说是高度相关的。机器学习已经成为一种流行的工具来执行风速和功率预测。然而,现有的方法具有若干限制。这些问题包括:(一)风速数据的时空相关性考虑不足,(二)缺乏现有的方法来量化风速预测的不确定性及其传播到风力发电估计,以及(三)专注于不到每小时的频率。为了克服这些局限性,我们引入了一个框架来重建一个时空场的规则网格不规则分布的风速测量。在将数据分解为时间参考基函数及其相应的空间分布系数后,使用极限学习机对后者进行空间建模。模型和预测的不确定性,以及它们的传播后的风速转化为风力发电的估计,然后提供没有任何假设的数据分布模式。该方法应用于研究瑞士100米轮毂高度涡轮机的250 × 250平方米电网上的每小时风力发电潜力,为该国生成了第一个此类数据集。将潜在的风力发电与风力涡轮机安装的可用面积相结合,以估计瑞士风力发电的技术潜力。这里提出的风力发电量估算代表了规划者的一个重要输入,以支持未来风力发电量增加的能源系统的设计。

英文摘要:

The growth of wind generation capacities in the past decades has shown that wind energy can contribute to the energy transition in many parts of the world. Being highly variable and complex to model, the quantification of the spatio-temporal variation of wind power and the related uncertainty is highly relevant for energy planners. Machine Learning has become a popular tool to perform wind-speed and power predictions. However, the existing approaches have several limitations. These include (i) insufficient consideration of spatio-temporal correlations in wind-speed data, (ii) a lack of existing methodologies to quantify the uncertainty of wind speed prediction and its propagation to the wind-power estimation, and (iii) a focus on less than hourly frequencies. To overcome these limitations, we introduce a framework to reconstruct a spatio-temporal field on a regular grid from irregularly distributed wind-speed measurements. After decomposing data into temporally referenced basis functions and their corresponding spatially distributed coefficients, the latter are spatially modelled using Extreme Learning Machines. Estimates of both model and prediction uncertainties, and of their propagation after the transformation of wind speed into wind power, are then provided without any assumptions on distribution patterns of the data. The methodology is applied to the study of hourly wind power potential on a grid of 250 by 250 squared meters for turbines of 100 meters hub height in Switzerland, generating the first dataset of its type for the country. The potential wind power generation is combined with the available area for wind turbine installations to yield an estimate of the technical potential for wind power in Switzerland. The wind power estimate presented here represents an important input for planners to support the design of future energy systems with increased wind power generation.

机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来,可能存在错误,请以论文正文为准。

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