One major sub-domain in the subject of polling public opinion with social media data is electoral prediction. Electoral prediction utilizing social media data potentially would significantly affect campaign strategies, complementing traditional polling methods and providing cheaper polling in real-time. First, this paper explores past successful methods from research for analysis and prediction of the 2020 US Presidential Election using Twitter data. Then, this research proposes a new method for electoral prediction which combines sentiment, from NLP on the text of tweets, and structural data with aggregate polling, a time series analysis, and a special focus on Twitter users critical to the election. Though this method performed worse than its baseline of polling predictions, it is inconclusive whether this is an accurate method for predicting elections due to scarcity of data. More research and more data are needed to accurately measure this method's overall effectiveness.
In this paper, we provide a systematic analysis of the Twitter discussion on the 2016 Austrian presidential elections. In particular, we extracted and analyzed a data-set consisting of 343645 Twitter messages related to the 2016 Austrian presidential elections. Our analysis combines methods from network science, sentiment analysis, as well as bot detection. Among other things, we found that: a) the winner of the election (Alexander Van der Bellen) was considerably more popular and influential on Twitter than his opponent, b) the Twitter followers of Van der Bellen substantially participated in…
Gender is playing an important role in the 2016 U.S. presidential election, especially with Hillary Clinton becoming the first female presidential nominee and Donald Trump being frequently accused of sexism. In this paper, we introduce computer vision to the study of gender politics and present an image-driven method that can measure the effects of gender in an accurate and timely manner. We first collect all the profile images of the candidates' Twitter followers. Then we train a convolutional neural network using images that contain gender labels. Lastly, we classify all the follower and unf…
The rise of social media accompanied by the Covid-19 Pandemic has instigated a shift in paradigm in the presidential campaigns in Iran from the real world to social media. Unlike previous presidential elections, there was a decrease in physical events and advertisements for the candidates; in turn, the online presence of presidential candidates is significantly increased. Farsi Twitter played a specific role in this matter, as it became the platform for creating political content. In this study, we found traces of organizational activities in Farsi Twitter. Our investigations reveals that the …
Motivated by the two paradoxical facts that the marginal cost of following one extra candidate is close to zero and that the majority of Twitter users choose to follow only one or two candidates, we study the Twitter follow behaviors observed in the 2016 U.S. presidential election. Specifically, we complete the following tasks: (1) analyze Twitter follow patterns of the presidential election on Twitter, (2) use negative binomial regression to study the effects of gender and occupation on the number of candidates that one follows, and (3) use multinomial logistic regression to investigate the e…
Identifying and characterizing disinformation in political discourse on social media is critical to ensure the integrity of elections and democratic processes around the world. Persistent manipulation of social media has resulted in increased concerns regarding the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election, due to its potential to influence individual opinions and social dynamics. In this work, we focus on the identification of distorted facts, in the form of unreliable and conspiratorial narratives in election-related tweets, to characterize discourse manipulation prior to the election. We apply a dete…
The Russian Internet Research Agency's (IRA) online interference campaign in the 2016 U.S. presidential election represents a turning point in the trajectory of democratic elections in the digital age. What can we learn about how the IRA engages U.S. audiences, ahead of the 2020 U.S. presidential election? We provide the first in-depth analysis of the relationships between IRA content characteristics and user engagement on Facebook and Instagram around the 2016 election. We find that content targeting right-wing and non-Black marginalised groups had the strongest positive association with enga…
We use a method based on machine learning, big-data analytics, and network theory to process millions of messages posted in Twitter to predict election outcomes. The model has achieved accurate results in the current Argentina primary presidential election on August 11, 2019 by predicting the large difference win of candidate Alberto Fernandez over president Mauricio Macri; a result that none of the traditional pollsters in that country was able to predict, and has led to a major bond market collapse. We apply the model to the upcoming Argentina presidential election on October 27, 2019 yieldi…
Rice University（莱斯大学）；University of Massachusetts Amherst（马萨诸塞大学阿默斯特分校）；Arizona State University（亚利桑那州立大学）
The 2016 United States presidential election has been characterized as a period of extreme divisiveness that was exacerbated on social media by the influence of fake news, trolls, and social bots. However, the extent to which the public became more polarized in response to these influences over the course of the election is not well understood. In this paper we propose IdeoTrace, a framework for (i) jointly estimating the ideology of social media users and news websites and (ii) tracing changes in user ideology over time. We apply this framework to the last two months of the election period fo…
In this paper, we present quantitative and qualitative analysis of the top retweeted tweets (viral tweets) pertaining to the US presidential elections from September 1, 2016 to Election Day on November 8, 2016. For everyday, we tagged the top 50 most retweeted tweets as supporting or attacking either candidate or as neutral/irrelevant. Then we analyzed the tweets in each class for: general trends and statistics; the most frequently used hashtags, terms, and locations; the most retweeted accounts and tweets; and the most shared news and links. In all we analyzed the 3,450 most viral tweets that…
This paper studies an integrated system of political and economic systems from a systematic perspective to explore the complex interaction between them, and specially analyzes the case of the US presidential election forecasting. Based on the signed association networks of industrial structure constructed by economic data, our framework simulates the diffusion and evolution of opinions during the election through a kinetic model called the Potts Model. Remarkably, we propose a simple and efficient prediction model for the US presidential election, and meanwhile inspire a new way to model the e…
In this paper, we provide a quantitative and qualitative analyses of the viral tweets related to the US presidential election. In our study, we focus on analyzing the most retweeted 50 tweets for everyday during September and October 2016. The resulting set is composed 3,050 viral tweets, and they were retweeted over 20.5 million times. We manually annotated the tweets as favorable of Trump, Clinton, or neither. Our quantitative study shows that tweets favoring Trump were usually retweeted more than pro-Clinton tweets, with the exception of a few days in September and two days in October, espe…
Bots, software-controlled accounts that operate on social media, have been used to manipulate and deceive. We studied the characteristics and activity of bots around major political events, including elections in various countries. In this chapter, we summarize our findings of bot operations in the context of the 2016 and 2018 US Presidential and Midterm elections and the 2017 French Presidential election.
Thanks to their name recognition and popularity, celebrities play an important role in American politics. Celebrity endorsements could add to the momentum of a politician's campaign and win the candidate extensive media coverage. There is one caveat though: the political preference of celebrity followers might differ from that of the celebrity. In this paper we explore that possibility. By carefully studying six prominent endorsements to the leading presidential candidates in the 2016 U.S. presidential election and statistically modeling Twitter "follow" behavior, we show (1) followers of all …
The 2016 U.S. presidential election has witnessed the major role of Twitter in the year's most important political event. Candidates used this social media platform extensively for online campaigns. Meanwhile, social media has been filled with rumors, which might have had huge impacts on voters' decisions. In this paper, we present a thorough analysis of rumor tweets from the followers of two presidential candidates: Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump. To overcome the difficulty of labeling a large amount of tweets as training data, we detect rumor tweets by matching them with verified rumor art…
Accounting for undecided and uncertain voters is a challenging issue for predicting election results from public opinion polls. Undecided voters typify the uncertainty of swing voters in polls but are often ignored or allocated to each candidate in a simple, deterministic manner. Historically this may have been adequate because the undecided were comparatively small enough to assume that they do not affect the relative proportions of the decided voters. However, in the presence of high numbers of undecided voters, these static rules may in fact bias election predictions from election poll auth…
With the significant increase in users on social media platforms, a new means of political campaigning has appeared. Twitter and Facebook are now notable campaigning tools during elections. Indeed, the candidates and their parties now take to the internet to interact and spread their ideas. In this paper, we aim to identify political communities formed on Twitter during the 2022 French presidential election and analyze each respective community. We create a large-scale Twitter dataset containing 1.2 million users and 62.6 million tweets that mention keywords relevant to the election. We perfor…
The dynamics and influence of fake news on Twitter during the 2016 US presidential election remains to be clarified. Here, we use a dataset of 171 million tweets in the five months preceding the election day to identify 30 million tweets, from 2.2 million users, which contain a link to news outlets. Based on a classification of news outlets curated by www.opensources.co, we find that 25% of these tweets spread either fake or extremely biased news. We characterize the networks of information flow to find the most influential spreaders of fake and traditional news and use causal modeling to unco…
University of South Carolina（南卡罗来纳大学）；Auburn University at Montgomery（奥本大学蒙哥马利分校）
Opinion polls have been the bridge between public opinion and politicians in elections. However, developing surveys to disclose people's feedback with respect to economic issues is limited, expensive, and time-consuming. In recent years, social media such as Twitter has enabled people to share their opinions regarding elections. Social media has provided a platform for collecting a large amount of social media data. This paper proposes a computational public opinion mining approach to explore the discussion of economic issues in social media during an election. Current related studies use text…
We applied complex network analysis to ~27,000 tweets posted by the 2016 presidential election's principal participants in the USA. We identified the stages of the election campaigns and the recurring topics addressed by the candidates. Finally, we revealed the leader-follower relationships between the candidates. We conclude that Secretary Hillary Clinton's Twitter performance was subordinate to that of Donald Trump, which may have been one factor that led to her electoral defeat.
This paper describes a Naive-Bayesian predictive model for 2016 U.S. Presidential Election based on Twitter data. We use 33,708 tweets gathered since December 16, 2015 until February 29, 2016. We introduce a simpler data preprocessing method to label the data and train the model. The model achieves 95.8% accuracy on 10-fold cross validation and predicts Ted Cruz and Bernie Sanders as Republican and Democratic nominee respectively. It achieves a comparable result to those in its competitor methods.
In this article we present our exploratory research into the occurrence of ageist attitudes within the discussion related to the US 2016 presidential election. We use natural processing techniques to analyze the content tweets related to Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump. Content analysis shows that although ageist attitudes are scarce in the discussion, they are mostly focused on Hillary Clinton rather than Donald Trump. Also, ageist arguments against Donald Trump appear mostly as a reply to controversies connected with the health of Hillary Clinton.
Social media is commonly used by the public during election campaigns to express their opinions regarding different issues. Among various social media channels, Twitter provides an efficient platform for researchers and politicians to explore public opinion regarding a wide range of topics such as the economy and foreign policy. Current literature mainly focuses on analyzing the content of tweets without considering the gender of users. This research collects and analyzes a large number of tweets and uses computational, human coding, and statistical analyses to identify topics in more than 300…
At the tipping point, it is known that small incident can trigger dramatic societal shift. Getting early-warning signals for such changes are valuable to avoid detrimental outcomes such as riots or collapses of nations. However, it is notoriously hard to capture the processes of such transitions in the real-world. Here, we demonstrate the occurrence of a major shift in public opinion in the form of political support. Instead of simple swapping of ruling parties, we study the regime shift of a party popularity based on its attractiveness by examining the American presidential elections during 1…
Online social media enables mass-level, transparent, and democratized discussion on numerous socio-political issues. Due to such openness, these platforms often endure manipulation and misinformation - leading to negative impacts. To prevent such harmful activities, platform moderators employ countermeasures to safeguard against actors violating their rules. However, the correlation between publicly outlined policies and employed action is less clear to general people. In this work, we examine violations and subsequent moderation related to the 2020 U.S. President Election discussion on Twitte…
Electoral forecasting is an ongoing scientific challenge with high social impact, as current data-driven methods try to efficiently combine statistics with economic indices and machine learning. However, recent studies in network science pinpoint towards the importance of temporal characteristics in the diffusion of opinion. As such, we combine concepts of micro-scale opinion dynamics and temporal epidemics, and develop a novel macro-scale temporal attenuation (TA) model, which uses pre-election poll data to improve forecasting accuracy. Our hypothesis is that the timing of publicizing opinion…
While the polls have been the most trusted source for election predictions for decades, in the recent presidential election they were called inaccurate and biased. How inaccurate were the polls in this election and can social media beat the polls as an accurate election predictor? Polls from several news outlets and sentiment analysis on Twitter data were used, in conjunction with the results of the election, to answer this question and outline further research on the best method for predicting the outcome of future elections.
Fake news are affecting a large proportion of the population even becoming a danger to the society. Mostly, this disinformation flow take place through Internet. Being aware of that problem, in this work we propose a synthetic indicator that measures the user reputation in Twitter in order to analyze the credibility of the content in this social network. In order to show the indicator utility, we have analyzed data from some political topics in Spain from 2019 to 2020 and we have checked that bots plays a decisive role into the spread of news and, as might be expected, the link among popularit…
For more than a decade scholars have been investigating the disinformation flow on social media contextually to societal events, like, e.g., elections. In this paper, we analyze the Twitter traffic related to the US 2020 pre-election debate and ask whether it mirrors the electoral system. The U.S. electoral system provides that, regardless of the actual vote gap, the premier candidate who received more votes in one state `takes' that state. Criticisms of this system have pointed out that election campaigns can be more intense in particular key states to achieve victory, so-called {\it swing st…
It is a widely accepted fact that state-sponsored Twitter accounts operated during the 2016 US presidential election spreading millions of tweets with misinformation and inflammatory political content. Whether these social media campaigns of the so-called "troll" accounts were able to manipulate public opinion is still in question. Here we aim to quantify the influence of troll accounts and the impact they had on Twitter by analyzing 152.5 million tweets from 9.9 million users, including 822 troll accounts. The data collected during the US election campaign, contain original troll tweets befor…
In this paper, we study follower demographics of Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton, the two leading candidates in the 2016 U.S. presidential race. We build a unique dataset US2016, which includes the number of followers for each candidate from September 17, 2015 to December 22, 2015. US2016 also includes the geographical location of these followers, the number of their own followers and, very importantly, the profile image of each follower. We use individuals' number of followers and profile images to analyze four dimensions of follower demographics: social status, gender, race and age. Our stu…
College of Computing；Digital Media DePaul University Chicago, IL, US
This paper presents TrollHunter2020, a real-time detection mechanism we used to hunt for trolling narratives on Twitter during the 2020 U.S. elections. Trolling narratives form on Twitter as alternative explanations of polarizing events like the 2020 U.S. elections with the goal to conduct information operations or provoke emotional response. Detecting trolling narratives thus is an imperative step to preserve constructive discourse on Twitter and remove an influx of misinformation. Using existing techniques, this takes time and a wealth of data, which, in a rapidly changing election cycle wit…
We propose a framework to measure, evaluate, and rank campaign effectiveness in the ongoing 2016 U.S. presidential election. Using Twitter data collected from Sept. 2015 to Jan. 2016, we first uncover the tweeting tactics of the candidates and second, using negative binomial regression and exploiting the variations in 'likes,' we evaluate the effectiveness of these tactics. Thirdly, we rank the candidates' campaign tactics by calculating the conditional expectation of their generated 'likes.' We show that while Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio put much weight on President Obama, this tactic is not bei…
Recent accounts from researchers, journalists, as well as federal investigators, reached a unanimous conclusion: social media are systematically exploited to manipulate and alter public opinion. Some disinformation campaigns have been coordinated by means of bots, social media accounts controlled by computer scripts that try to disguise themselves as legitimate human users. In this study, we describe one such operation occurred in the run up to the 2017 French presidential election. We collected a massive Twitter dataset of nearly 17 million posts occurred between April 27 and May 7, 2017 (Ele…
University of Southern California（南加州大学）；Information Sciences Institute（信息科学研究所）；University of Applied Sciences and Arts of Southern Switzerland (SUPSI)（瑞士南部应用科学与艺术大学（SUPSI））；University of Bern（伯尔尼大学）
Since the 2016 US Presidential election, social media abuse has been eliciting massive concern in the academic community and beyond. Preventing and limiting the malicious activity of users, such as trolls and bots, in their manipulation campaigns is of paramount importance for the integrity of democracy, public health, and more. However, the automated detection of troll accounts is an open challenge. In this work, we propose an approach based on Inverse Reinforcement Learning (IRL) to capture troll behavior and identify troll accounts. We employ IRL to infer a set of online incentives that may…
Opinions about the 2016 U.S. Presidential Candidates have been expressed in millions of tweets that are challenging to analyze automatically. Crowdsourcing the analysis of political tweets effectively is also difficult, due to large inter-rater disagreements when sarcasm is involved. Each tweet is typically analyzed by a fixed number of workers and majority voting. We here propose a crowdsourcing framework that instead uses a dynamic allocation of the number of workers. We explore two dynamic-allocation methods: (1) The number of workers queried to label a tweet is computed offline based on th…
Owing to its history and challenging circumstances, social networks community in Ukraine is a very interesting polygon for the study of communications in the constantly changing environment, especially in the political discourse. This unique environment requires three dimensions to ascertain the political position of its participant. But 2019 presidential elections made this object even more spectacular. The winner of elections comedian Volodymyr Zelenskyi reached 73% of votes without any issue ownership, with empty agenda, and this influenced the electoral content of social networks and their…
In modern election campaigns, political parties utilize social media to advertise their policies and candidates and to communicate to the electorate. In Japan's latest general election in 2017, the 48th general election for the Lower House, social media, especially Twitter, was actively used. In this paper, we analyze the users who retweeted tweets of political parties on Twitter during the election. Our aim is to clarify what kinds of users are diffusing (retweeting) tweets of political parties. The results indicate that the characteristics of retweeters of the largest ruling party (Liberal D…
Elections are the backbone of any democratic country, where voters elect the candidates as their representatives. The emergence of social networking sites has provided a platform for political parties and their candidates to connect with voters in order to spread their political ideas. Our study aims to use Twitter in assessing the outcome of Delhi Assembly elections held in 2020, using a bi-level approach, i.e., concerning political parties and their candidates. We analyze the correlation of election results with the activities of different candidates and parties on Twitter, and the response …
Serious concerns have been raised about the role of 'socialbots' in manipulating public opinion and influencing the outcome of elections by retweeting partisan content to increase its reach. Here we analyze the role and influence of socialbots on Twitter by determining how they contribute to retweet diffusions. We collect a large dataset of tweets during the 1st U.S. Presidential Debate in 2016 (#DebateNight) and we analyze its 1.5 million users from three perspectives: user influence, political behavior (partisanship and engagement) and botness. First, we define a measure of user influence ba…
Social media has become an emerging alternative to opinion polls for public opinion collection, while it is still posing many challenges as a passive data source, such as structurelessness, quantifiability, and representativeness. Social media data with geotags provide new opportunities to unveil the geographic locations of users expressing their opinions. This paper aims to answer two questions: 1) whether quantifiable measurement of public opinion can be obtained from social media and 2) whether it can produce better or complementary measures compared to opinion polls. This research proposes…
