In this paper, we present quantitative and qualitative analysis of the top retweeted tweets (viral tweets) pertaining to the US presidential elections from September 1, 2016 to Election Day on November 8, 2016. For everyday, we tagged the top 50 most retweeted tweets as supporting or attacking either candidate or as neutral/irrelevant. Then we analyzed the tweets in each class for: general trends and statistics; the most frequently used hashtags, terms, and locations; the most retweeted accounts and tweets; and the most shared news and links. In all we analyzed the 3,450 most viral tweets that grabbed the most attention during the US election and were retweeted in total 26.3 million times accounting over 40% of the total tweet volume pertaining to the US election in the aforementioned period. Our analysis of the tweets highlights some of the differences between the social media strategies of both candidates, the penetration of their messages, and the potential effect of attacks on both
In this paper, we propose a data-driven method to measure the impact of the 'woman card' exchange between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump. Building from a unique dataset of the two candidates' Twitter followers, we first examine the transition dynamics of the two candidates' Twitter followers one week before the exchange and one week after. Then we train a convolutional neural network to classify the gender of the followers and unfollowers, and study how women in particular are reacting to the 'woman card' exchange. Our study suggests that the 'woman card' comment has made women more likely t…
From a crowded field with 17 candidates, Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump have emerged as the two front-runners in the 2016 U.S. presidential campaign. The two candidates each boast more than 5 million followers on Twitter, and at the same time both have witnessed hundreds of thousands of people leave their camps. In this paper we attempt to characterize individuals who have left Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump between September 2015 and March 2016. Our study focuses on three dimensions of social demographics: social capital, gender, and age. Within each camp, we compare the characteristics o…
In this paper, we provide a quantitative and qualitative analyses of the viral tweets related to the US presidential election. In our study, we focus on analyzing the most retweeted 50 tweets for everyday during September and October 2016. The resulting set is composed 3,050 viral tweets, and they were retweeted over 20.5 million times. We manually annotated the tweets as favorable of Trump, Clinton, or neither. Our quantitative study shows that tweets favoring Trump were usually retweeted more than pro-Clinton tweets, with the exception of a few days in September and two days in October, espe…
In this article we present our exploratory research into the occurrence of ageist attitudes within the discussion related to the US 2016 presidential election. We use natural processing techniques to analyze the content tweets related to Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump. Content analysis shows that although ageist attitudes are scarce in the discussion, they are mostly focused on Hillary Clinton rather than Donald Trump. Also, ageist arguments against Donald Trump appear mostly as a reply to controversies connected with the health of Hillary Clinton.
In this paper, we propose a web-centered framework to infer voter preferences for the 2016 U.S. presidential primaries. Using Twitter data collected from Sept. 2015 to March 2016, we first uncover the tweeting tactics of the candidates and then exploit the variations in the number of 'likes' to infer voters' preference. With sparse learning, we are able to reveal neutral topics as well as positive and negative ones. Methodologically, we are able to achieve a higher predictive power with sparse learning. Substantively, we show that for Hillary Clinton the (only) positive issue area is women's r…
We applied complex network analysis to ~27,000 tweets posted by the 2016 presidential election's principal participants in the USA. We identified the stages of the election campaigns and the recurring topics addressed by the candidates. Finally, we revealed the leader-follower relationships between the candidates. We conclude that Secretary Hillary Clinton's Twitter performance was subordinate to that of Donald Trump, which may have been one factor that led to her electoral defeat.
Measuring and forecasting opinion trends from real-time social media is a long-standing goal of big-data analytics. Despite its importance, there has been no conclusive scientific evidence so far that social media activity can capture the opinion of the general population. Here we develop a method to infer the opinion of Twitter users regarding the candidates of the 2016 US Presidential Election by using a combination of statistical physics of complex networks and machine learning based on hashtags co-occurrence to develop an in-domain training set approaching 1 million tweets. We investigate …
Gender is playing an important role in the 2016 U.S. presidential election, especially with Hillary Clinton becoming the first female presidential nominee and Donald Trump being frequently accused of sexism. In this paper, we introduce computer vision to the study of gender politics and present an image-driven method that can measure the effects of gender in an accurate and timely manner. We first collect all the profile images of the candidates' Twitter followers. Then we train a convolutional neural network using images that contain gender labels. Lastly, we classify all the follower and unf…
Polarization in American politics has been extensively documented and analyzed for decades, and the phenomenon became all the more apparent during the 2016 presidential election, where Trump and Clinton depicted two radically different pictures of America. Inspired by this gaping polarization and the extensive utilization of Twitter during the 2016 presidential campaign, in this paper we take the first step in measuring polarization in social media and we attempt to predict individuals' Twitter following behavior through analyzing ones' everyday tweets, profile images and posted pictures. As s…
The 2016 U.S. presidential election has witnessed the major role of Twitter in the year's most important political event. Candidates used this social media platform extensively for online campaigns. Meanwhile, social media has been filled with rumors, which might have had huge impacts on voters' decisions. In this paper, we present a thorough analysis of rumor tweets from the followers of two presidential candidates: Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump. To overcome the difficulty of labeling a large amount of tweets as training data, we detect rumor tweets by matching them with verified rumor art…
We study the emergence of support for Donald Trump in Reddit's political discussion. With almost 800k subscribers, "r/The_Donald" is one of the largest communities on Reddit, and one of the main hubs for Trump supporters. It was created in 2015, shortly after Donald Trump began his presidential campaign. By using only data from 2012, we predict the likelihood of being a supporter of Donald Trump in 2016, the year of the last US presidential elections. To characterize the behavior of Trump supporters, we draw from three different sociological hypotheses: homophily, social influence, and social …
We propose a framework to measure, evaluate, and rank campaign effectiveness in the ongoing 2016 U.S. presidential election. Using Twitter data collected from Sept. 2015 to Jan. 2016, we first uncover the tweeting tactics of the candidates and second, using negative binomial regression and exploiting the variations in 'likes,' we evaluate the effectiveness of these tactics. Thirdly, we rank the candidates' campaign tactics by calculating the conditional expectation of their generated 'likes.' We show that while Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio put much weight on President Obama, this tactic is not bei…
Quantifying the Uniqueness and Divisiveness of Presidential Discourse
Department of Computer Science, The University of Chicago（芝加哥大学计算机科学系）；Department of Political Science, The University of Chicago（芝加哥大学政治学系）；Harris School of Public Policy, The University of Chicago（芝加哥大学哈里斯公共政策学院）；Harvard University（哈佛大学）
Political trolls initiate online discord not only for the lulz (laughs) but also for ideological reasons, such as promoting their desired political candidates. Political troll groups recently gained spotlight because they were considered central in helping Donald Trump win the 2016 US presidential election, which involved difficult mass mobilizations. Political trolls face unique challenges as they must build their own communities while simultaneously disrupting others. However, little is known about how political trolls mobilize sufficient participation to suddenly become problems for others.…
The dynamics and influence of fake news on Twitter during the 2016 US presidential election remains to be clarified. Here, we use a dataset of 171 million tweets in the five months preceding the election day to identify 30 million tweets, from 2.2 million users, which contain a link to news outlets. Based on a classification of news outlets curated by www.opensources.co, we find that 25% of these tweets spread either fake or extremely biased news. We characterize the networks of information flow to find the most influential spreaders of fake and traditional news and use causal modeling to unco…
During the 2016 US elections Twitter experienced unprecedented levels of propaganda and fake news through the collaboration of bots and hired persons, the ramifications of which are still being debated. This work proposes an approach to identify the presence of organized behavior in tweets. The Random Forest, Support Vector Machine, and Logistic Regression algorithms are each used to train a model with a data set of 850 records consisting of 299 features extracted from tweets gathered during the 2016 US presidential election. The features represent user and temporal synchronization characteris…
Opinions about the 2016 U.S. Presidential Candidates have been expressed in millions of tweets that are challenging to analyze automatically. Crowdsourcing the analysis of political tweets effectively is also difficult, due to large inter-rater disagreements when sarcasm is involved. Each tweet is typically analyzed by a fixed number of workers and majority voting. We here propose a crowdsourcing framework that instead uses a dynamic allocation of the number of workers. We explore two dynamic-allocation methods: (1) The number of workers queried to label a tweet is computed offline based on th…
Owing to its history and challenging circumstances, social networks community in Ukraine is a very interesting polygon for the study of communications in the constantly changing environment, especially in the political discourse. This unique environment requires three dimensions to ascertain the political position of its participant. But 2019 presidential elections made this object even more spectacular. The winner of elections comedian Volodymyr Zelenskyi reached 73% of votes without any issue ownership, with empty agenda, and this influenced the electoral content of social networks and their…
Institute of Informatics and Telematics, National Research Council (IIT-CNR)（国家研究委员会信息学与远程信息处理研究所）
On the morning of November 9th 2016, the world woke up to the shocking outcome of the US Presidential elections: Donald Trump was the 45th President of the United States of America. An unexpected event that still has tremendous consequences all over the world. Today, we know that a minority of social bots, automated social media accounts mimicking humans, played a central role in spreading divisive messages and disinformation, possibly contributing to Trump's victory. In the aftermath of the 2016 US elections, the world started to realize the gravity of widespread deception in social media. Fo…
