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arXiv 2106.09538cs.AIcs.SYeess.SYphysics.data-an
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利用可解释的AI探索确定性频率偏差

Exploring deterministic frequency deviations with explainable AI

Forschungszentrum Jülich(于利希研究中心);University of Cologne(科隆大学);Queen Mary University of London(伦敦玛丽女王大学);Norwegian University of Life Sciences(挪威生命科学大学)

Johannes Kruse, Benjamin Schäfer, Dirk Witthaut

摘要:

确定性频率偏差严重影响电网频率质量和电力系统稳定性。近年来,欧洲电网的频率偏差不断增加,因此迫切需要更好地了解这些事件。DFD的部分原因是电力交易间隔后发电量的快速调整,但这种直观的画面特别是在中午前后失败。在这篇文章中,我们使用可解释的人工智能的方法详细分析了DFD及其与外部特征的关系。我们建立了一个机器学习模型,很好地描述了DFD的日常周期,并阐明了关键的相互依赖性,使用SHapley加法解释(SHAP)。因此,我们确定太阳能斜坡是解释频率变化率(RoCoF)模式的关键。

英文摘要:

Deterministic frequency deviations (DFDs) critically affect power grid frequency quality and power system stability. A better understanding of these events is urgently needed as frequency deviations have been growing in the European grid in recent years. DFDs are partially explained by the rapid adjustment of power generation following the intervals of electricity trading, but this intuitive picture fails especially before and around noonday. In this article, we provide a detailed analysis of DFDs and their relation to external features using methods from explainable Artificial Intelligence. We establish a machine learning model that well describes the daily cycle of DFDs and elucidate key interdependencies using SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP). Thereby, we identify solar ramps as critical to explain patterns in the Rate of Change of Frequency (RoCoF).

机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来,可能存在错误,请以论文正文为准。

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