动力引擎：电力、AI和通用军事转型
Engines of Power: Electricity, AI, and General-Purpose Military Transformations
摘要：
军事创新的主要理论集中在相对狭窄的技术发展，如核武器或航空母舰。然而，可以说，技术变革最深刻的军事影响来自于通用技术（如蒸汽机、电力和计算机）带来的更根本的进步。除了少数例外，政治学家还没有对全球公共贸易理论进行理论化。从经济学文献的GPT，我们提炼出几个命题如何以及何时GPT影响军事事务。我们把这些效应称为通用军事转型。特别是，我们认为，GMT对军事效能的影响是广泛的，延迟的，并形成间接的生产力溢出。此外，GMT对那些可以从GPT强大的工业基础中汲取力量的军队具有不同的优势。为了说明我们的理论的解释价值，我们进行了一个案例研究的军事后果的电力，原型GPT。最后，我们将我们的发现应用于人工智能，这可能会导致深刻的通用军事变革。
英文摘要：
Major theories of military innovation focus on relatively narrow technological developments, such as nuclear weapons or aircraft carriers. Arguably the most profound military implications of technological change, however, come from more fundamental advances arising from general purpose technologies, such as the steam engine, electricity, and the computer. With few exceptions, political scientists have not theorized about GPTs. Drawing from the economics literature on GPTs, we distill several propositions on how and when GPTs affect military affairs. We call these effects general-purpose military transformations. In particular, we argue that the impacts of GMTs on military effectiveness are broad, delayed, and shaped by indirect productivity spillovers. Additionally, GMTs differentially advantage those militaries that can draw from a robust industrial base in the GPT. To illustrate the explanatory value of our theory, we conduct a case study of the military consequences of electricity, the prototypical GPT. Finally, we apply our findings to artificial intelligence, which will plausibly cause a profound general-purpose military transformation.
机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来，可能存在错误，请以论文正文为准。
