AI 中文总结
研究电力需求价格响应性，通过462项研究的4720个弹性估计值检验假设。发现识别好的研究响应小，响应性随时间增长但无上升趋势，技术丰富环境响应性低，表明仅靠价格无法提升电力需求响应性，需其他方式实现。
AI 中文摘要
能源规划者长期以来一直认为，随着计量、自动化和存储的普及，电力需求将变得更具价格响应性，这一假设已纳入脱碳计划。我们根据实证记录进行检验：来自462项研究的4720个自价格弹性估计值，数据跨度为1934年至2024年，按照从简单回归到随机实验的单一识别质量阶梯进行排序。有三个发现。首先，识别最好的研究发现的响应比简单研究更小：经出版偏差校正的短期弹性约为-0.16（电价上涨10%使消费量减少不到2%），在识别最好的研究中仅为-0.09，其调整值在统计上与零无差异。其次，响应性随调整时间增长，随着资本存量周转，从短期的-0.16大致翻倍至长期的-0.38，但这种模式本身几十年来一直稳定。第三，也是最重要的，在九十年的数据中，响应性没有上升趋势；实际上，包括分时定价在内的技术最丰富的环境，在总消费中价格响应性最低。仅靠价格并不能使总电力消费更具响应性；必须通过支持技术、合同和项目设计来设计和支付更广泛的需求灵活性。
英文摘要
Energy planners have long assumed that electricity demand will grow more price-responsive as metering, automation, and storage spread, an assumption now embedded in decarbonization plans. We test it against the empirical record: 4,720 own-price elasticity estimates from 462 studies, with data spanning 1934-2024, ranked on a single ladder of identification quality from naive regressions to randomized experiments. Three findings emerge. First, the best-identified studies find smaller responses than naive ones: the publication-bias-corrected short-run elasticity is about -0.16 (a 10% rise in the electricity price cuts consumption by under 2%), and only -0.09 among the best-identified studies, whose adjusted value is statistically indistinguishable from zero. Second, responsiveness grows with time to adjust, roughly doubling from -0.16 in the short run to -0.38 in the long run as the capital stock turns over, but this pattern has itself been stable for decades. Third, and most important, responsiveness shows no upward trend across nine decades of data; if anything, the most technology-rich settings, including time-of-use pricing, are the least price-responsive in total consumption. Prices alone have not made total electricity consumption more responsive; broader demand flexibility will have to be engineered and paid for, through enabling technology, contracts, and program design.
Comments71 pages, 13 figures, 23 tables. Data and code in the replication package, and project page, at https://meta-analysis.cz/electricity
