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arXiv 2105.13431cs.LGcs.AIcs.SYeess.SY

贝叶斯马尔可夫决策过程的离线风险感知策略选择方法

An Offline Risk-aware Policy Selection Method for Bayesian Markov Decision Processes

Natural Intelligence Toulouse Institute, University of Toulouse, France(图卢兹大学自然智能研究所);ISAE-SUPAERO, University of Toulouse, France(图卢兹大学ISAE-SUPAERO)

Giorgio Angelotti, Nicolas Drougard, Caroline Ponzoni Carvalho Chanel

AI总结:

针对离线强化学习中模型不确定性导致策略风险高的问题,提出一种基于贝叶斯形式化框架的风险感知策略选择方法EvC,通过最大化贝叶斯后验下的风险感知目标来选择稳健策略。

摘要:

在离线模型学习用于规划以及离线强化学习中,有限的数据集阻碍了相对马尔可夫决策过程(MDP)的值函数估计。因此,所获得策略在真实世界中的性能受到限制且可能存在风险,尤其是当部署错误策略可能导致灾难性后果时。为此,目前正在探索多种途径以减少模型误差(或学习模型与真实模型之间的分布偏移),并在更广泛的意义上获得针对模型不确定性的风险感知解决方案。但在最终应用中,实践者应选择哪种基线?在计算时间不是问题且鲁棒性优先的离线背景下,我们提出了Exploitation vs Caution(EvC),这是一种范式:(1)优雅地融入遵循贝叶斯形式化的模型不确定性,以及(2)在由当前基线提供的固定候选策略集合中,选择最大化贝叶斯后验下风险感知目标的策略。我们在不同离散但简单的环境中使用最先进的方法验证了EvC,这些环境提供了多种MDP类别。在测试场景中,EvC成功选择了稳健策略,因此成为旨在将离线规划和强化学习求解器应用于真实世界的实践者的有用工具。

英文摘要:

In Offline Model Learning for Planning and in Offline Reinforcement Learning, the limited data set hinders the estimate of the Value function of the relative Markov Decision Process (MDP). Consequently, the performance of the obtained policy in the real world is bounded and possibly risky, especially when the deployment of a wrong policy can lead to catastrophic consequences. For this reason, several pathways are being followed with the scope of reducing the model error (or the distributional shift between the learned model and the true one) and, more broadly, obtaining risk-aware solutions with respect to model uncertainty. But when it comes to the final application which baseline should a practitioner choose? In an offline context where computational time is not an issue and robustness is the priority we propose Exploitation vs Caution (EvC), a paradigm that (1) elegantly incorporates model uncertainty abiding by the Bayesian formalism, and (2) selects the policy that maximizes a risk-aware objective over the Bayesian posterior between a fixed set of candidate policies provided, for instance, by the current baselines. We validate EvC with state-of-the-art approaches in different discrete, yet simple, environments offering a fair variety of MDP classes. In the tested scenarios EvC manages to select robust policies and hence stands out as a useful tool for practitioners that aim to apply offline planning and reinforcement learning solvers in the real world.

机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来,可能存在错误,请以论文正文为准。

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