The COVID-19 pandemic has impacted lives and economies across the globe, leading to many deaths. While vaccination is an important intervention, its roll-out is slow and unequal across the globe. Therefore, extensive testing still remains one of the key methods to monitor and contain the virus. Testing on a large scale is expensive and arduous. Hence, we need alternate methods to estimate the number of cases. Online surveys have been shown to be an effective method for data collection amidst the pandemic. In this work, we develop machine learning models to estimate the prevalence of COVID-19 using self-reported symptoms. Our best model predicts the daily cases with a mean absolute error (MAE) of 226.30 (normalized MAE of 27.09%) per state, which demonstrates the possibility of predicting the actual number of confirmed cases by utilizing self-reported symptoms. The models are developed at two levels of data granularity - local models, which are trained at the state level, and a single global model which is trained on the combined data aggregated across all states. Our results indicate a lower error on the local models as opposed to the global model. In addition, we also show that the most important symptoms (features) vary considerably from state to state. This work demonstrates that the models developed on crowd-sourced data, curated via online platforms, can complement the existing epidemiological surveillance infrastructure in a cost-effective manner. The code is publicly available at https://github.com/parthpatwa/Can-Self-Reported-Symptoms-Predict-Daily-COVID-19-Cases.
Machine Learning-driven Analysis of Gastrointestinal Symptoms in Post-COVID-19 Patients
College of Science, University of Al-Qadisiyah（卡迪西亚大学理学院）；Liverpool John Moors University（利物浦约翰摩尔大学）；College of Medicine, Kufa University（库法大学医学院）；Imperial College（帝国理工学院）；Al-Sadder Teaching Hospital（萨德尔教学医院）
In this work we present a spatial-temporal convolutional neural network for predicting future COVID-19 related symptoms severity among a population, per region, given its past reported symptoms. This can help approximate the number of future Covid-19 patients in each region, thus enabling a faster response, e.g., preparing the local hospital or declaring a local lockdown where necessary. Our model is based on a national symptom survey distributed in Israel and can predict symptoms severity for different regions daily. The model includes two main parts - (1) learned region-based survey responde…
Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a global pandemic. Although much has been learned about the novel coronavirus since its emergence, there are many open questions related to tracking its spread, describing symptomology, predicting the severity of infection, and forecasting healthcare utilization. Free-text clinical notes contain critical information for resolving these questions. Data-driven, automatic information extraction models are needed to use this text-encoded information in large-scale studies. This work presents a new clinical corpus, referred to as the COVID-19 Annotated Clinica…
As the COVID-19 pandemic continues to put a significant burden on healthcare systems worldwide, there has been growing interest in finding inexpensive symptom pre-screening and recommendation methods to assist in efficiently using available medical resources such as PCR tests. In this study, we introduce the design of COVID-Net Assistant, an efficient virtual assistant designed to provide symptom prediction and recommendations for COVID-19 by analyzing users' cough recordings through deep convolutional neural networks. We explore a variety of highly customized, lightweight convolutional neural…
COVID-19 (coronavirus disease 2019) pandemic caused by SARS-CoV-2 has led to a treacherous and devastating catastrophe for humanity. At the time of writing, no specific antivirus drugs or vaccines are recommended to control infection transmission and spread. The current diagnosis of COVID-19 is done by Reverse-Transcription Polymer Chain Reaction (RT-PCR) testing. However, this method is expensive, time-consuming, and not easily available in straitened regions. An interpretable and COVID-19 diagnosis AI framework is devised and developed based on the cough sounds features and symptoms metadata…
University of Toronto（多伦多大学）；Toronto Rehabilitation Institute（多伦多康复研究所）
The COVID-19 pandemic is one of the most challenging healthcare crises during the 21st century. As the virus continues to spread on a global scale, the majority of efforts have been on the development of vaccines and the mass immunization of the public. While the daily case numbers were following a decreasing trend, the emergent of new virus mutations and variants still pose a significant threat. As economies start recovering and societies start opening up with people going back into office buildings, schools, and malls, we still need to have the ability to detect and minimize the spread of CO…
Indian Institute of Science（印度科学学院）；Ramaiah Medical College Hospital（拉马亚医学院医院）；General Hospital, Hoskote（霍斯考特综合医院）；PSG Institute of Medical Sciences and Research（PSG医学科学与研究院）
The COVID-19 pandemic has accelerated research on design of alternative, quick and effective COVID-19 diagnosis approaches. In this paper, we describe the Coswara tool, a website application designed to enable COVID-19 detection by analysing respiratory sound samples and health symptoms. A user using this service can log into a website using any device connected to the internet, provide there current health symptom information and record few sound sampled corresponding to breathing, cough, and speech. Within a minute of analysis of this information on a cloud server the website tool will outpu…
COVID-19 was announced by the World Health Organisation (WHO) as a global pandemic. The severity of the disease spread is determined by various factors such as the countries' health care capacity and the enforced lockdown. However, it is not clear if a country's climate acts as a contributing factor towards the number of infected cases. This paper aims to examine the relationship between COVID-19 and the weather of 89 cities in Saudi Arabia using machine learning techniques. We compiled and preprocessed data using the official daily report of the Ministry of Health of Saudi Arabia for COVID-19…
Background: COVID-19 has become a challenge worldwide and properly planning of medical resources is the key to combating COVID-19. In the US Veteran Affairs Health Care System (VA), many of the enrollees are susceptible to COVID-19. Predicting the COVID-19 to allocate medical resources promptly becomes a critical issue. When the VA enrollees have COVID-19 symptoms, it is recommended that their first step should be to call the VA Call Center. For confirmed COVID-19 patients, the median time from the first symptom to hospital admission was seven days. By predicting the number of COVID-19 related…
The COVID-19 pandemic has magnified an already existing trend of people looking for healthcare solutions online. One class of solutions are symptom checkers, which have become very popular in the context of COVID-19. Traditional symptom checkers, however, are based on manually curated expert systems that are inflexible and hard to modify, especially in a quickly changing situation like the one we are facing today. That is why all COVID-19 existing solutions are manual symptom checkers that can only estimate the probability of this disease and cannot contemplate alternative hypothesis or come u…
PathCheck Foundation（PathCheck基金会）；Stony Brook Medicine（石溪医学中心）；MIT Media Lab（麻省理工学院媒体实验室）；University of California San Francisco（加州大学旧金山分校）
It is crucial for policymakers to understand the community prevalence of COVID-19 so combative resources can be effectively allocated and prioritized during the COVID-19 pandemic. Traditionally, community prevalence has been assessed through diagnostic and antibody testing data. However, despite the increasing availability of COVID-19 testing, the required level has not been met in most parts of the globe, introducing a need for an alternative method for communities to determine disease prevalence. This is further complicated by the observation that COVID-19 prevalence and spread varies across…
Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujibur Rahman Science and Technology University（班加班杜谢赫穆吉布·拉赫曼科技大学）；Khulna University（库尔纳大学）；Jatiya Kabi Kazi Nazrul Islam University（贾蒂亚·卡比·卡齐·纳兹鲁尔·伊斯兰大学）；University of Canberra（堪培拉大学）；Nagasaki University（长崎大学）；The Garvan Institute of Medical Research（加尔文医学研究所）；Royal North Shore Hospital SERT Institute（皇家北岸医院SERT研究所）；University of New South Wales（新南威尔士大学）；World Health Organization (WHO) Centre on eHealth（世界卫生组织电子健康中心）
Background: Providing appropriate care for people suffering from COVID-19, the disease caused by the pandemic SARS-CoV-2 virus is a significant global challenge. Many individuals who become infected have pre-existing conditions that may interact with COVID-19 to increase symptom severity and mortality risk. COVID-19 patient comorbidities are likely to be informative about individual risk of severe illness and mortality. Accurately determining how comorbidities are associated with severe symptoms and mortality would thus greatly assist in COVID-19 care planning and provision. Methods: To assess…
Shenzhen Research Institute of Big Data, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shenzhen（香港中文大学（深圳）深圳大数据研究院）
Ultrasound (US) is a non-invasive yet effective medical diagnostic imaging technique for the COVID-19 global pandemic. However, due to complex feature behaviors and expensive annotations of US images, it is difficult to apply Artificial Intelligence (AI) assisting approaches for lung's multi-symptom (multi-label) classification. To overcome these difficulties, we propose a novel semi-supervised Two-Stream Active Learning (TSAL) method to model complicated features and reduce labeling costs in an iterative procedure. The core component of TSAL is the multi-label learning mechanism, in which lab…
University of Oklahoma（俄克拉荷马大学）；University of Memphis（孟菲斯大学）；Marquette University（马凯特大学）
The outbreak of COVID-19 disease caused more than 100,000 deaths so far in the USA alone. It is necessary to conduct an initial screening of patients with the symptoms of COVID-19 disease to control the spread of the disease. However, it is becoming laborious to conduct the tests with the available testing kits due to the growing number of patients. Some studies proposed CT scan or chest X-ray images as an alternative solution. Therefore, it is essential to use every available resource, instead of either a CT scan or chest X-ray to conduct a large number of tests simultaneously. As a result, t…
University of Augsburg（奥格斯堡大学）；University of Cambridge（剑桥大学）；University of Zaragoza（萨拉戈萨大学）；University of Bergamo（贝加莫大学）；Medical University of Graz（格拉茨医科大学）
This study investigates the potential of deep learning methods to identify individuals with suspected COVID-19 infection using remotely collected heart-rate data. The study utilises data from the ongoing EU IMI RADAR-CNS research project that is investigating the feasibility of wearable devices and smart phones to monitor individuals with multiple sclerosis (MS), depression or epilepsy. Aspart of the project protocol, heart-rate data was collected from participants using a Fitbit wristband. The presence of COVID-19 in the cohort in this work was either confirmed through a positive swab test, o…
Wadhwani Institute for Artificial Intelligence（瓦德瓦尼人工智能研究所）
Rapidly scaling screening, testing and quarantine has shown to be an effective strategy to combat the COVID-19 pandemic. We consider the application of deep learning techniques to distinguish individuals with COVID from non-COVID by using data acquirable from a phone. Using cough and context (symptoms and meta-data) represent such a promising approach. Several independent works in this direction have shown promising results. However, none of them report performance across clinically relevant data splits. Specifically, the performance where the development and test sets are split in time (retro…
The Alan Turing Institute（阿兰·图灵研究所）；Imperial College London（帝国理工学院）；University of Oxford（牛津大学）；University of Surrey（萨里大学）；King’s College London（伦敦国王学院）；University College London（伦敦大学学院）；UK Health Security Agency（英国卫生安全局）；University of Brighton（布莱顿大学）
Recent work has reported that AI classifiers trained on audio recordings can accurately predict severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARSCoV2) infection status. Here, we undertake a large scale study of audio-based deep learning classifiers, as part of the UK governments pandemic response. We collect and analyse a dataset of audio recordings from 67,842 individuals with linked metadata, including reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (PCR) test outcomes, of whom 23,514 tested positive for SARS CoV 2. Subjects were recruited via the UK governments National Health Service T…
University of Electronic Science and Technology of China（电子科技大学）；Sichuan University West China Hospital（四川大学华西医院）；Shanghai United Imaging Intelligence Co., Ltd.（上海联影智能医疗科技有限公司）
With the rapidly worldwide spread of Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), it is of great importance to conduct early diagnosis of COVID-19 and predict the time that patients might convert to the severe stage, for designing effective treatment plan and reducing the clinicians' workloads. In this study, we propose a joint classification and regression method to determine whether the patient would develop severe symptoms in the later time, and if yes, predict the possible conversion time that the patient would spend to convert to the severe stage. To do this, the proposed method takes into account 1) …
University of Augsburg（奥格斯堡大学）；TCS Research（塔塔咨询服务研究院）；Imperial College London（帝国理工学院）
The Coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic has been the research focus world-wide in the year 2020. Several efforts, from collection of COVID-19 patients' data to screening them for the virus's detection are taken with rigour. A major portion of COVID-19 symptoms are related to the functioning of the respiratory system, which in-turn critically influences the human speech production system. This drives the research focus towards identifying the markers of COVID-19 in speech and other human generated audio signals. In this paper, we give an overview of the speech and other audio signal, language and g…
Pontifical Catholic University of Rio Grande do Sul（南里奥格兰德天主教大学）；Federal Police Department in Rio Grande do Sul（南里奥格兰德联邦警察局）；National Institute of Science and Technology - Forensic Science（法证科学国家科学技术研究院）；Federal University of Rio Grande do Sul（南里奥格兰德联邦大学）；Federal University of Rio Grande（里奥格兰德联邦大学）
COVID-19 pandemics has challenged emergency response systems worldwide, with widespread reports of essential services breakdown and collapse of health care structure. A critical element involves essential workforce management since current protocols recommend release from duty for symptomatic individuals, including essential personnel. Testing capacity is also problematic in several countries, where diagnosis demand outnumbers available local testing capacity. This work describes a machine learning model derived from hemogram exam data performed in symptomatic patients and how they can be used…
The COVID-19 coronavirus pandemic has affected virtually every region of the globe. At the time of conducting this study, the number of daily cases in the United States is more than any other country, and the trend is increasing in most of its states. Google trends provide public interest in various topics during different periods. Analyzing these trends using data mining methods might provide useful insights and observations regarding the COVID-19 outbreak. The objective of this study was to consider the predictive ability of different search terms (i.e., bars and restaurants) with regards to…
The outburst of COVID-19 in late 2019 was the start of a health crisis that shook the world and took millions of lives in the ensuing years. Many governments and health officials failed to arrest the rapid circulation of infection in their communities. The long incubation period and the large proportion of asymptomatic cases made COVID-19 particularly elusive to track. However, wastewater monitoring soon became a promising data source in addition to conventional indicators such as confirmed daily cases, hospitalizations, and deaths. Despite the consensus on the effectiveness of wastewater vira…
Background: Early detection and isolation of COVID-19 patients are essential for successful implementation of mitigation strategies and eventually curbing the disease spread. With a limited number of daily COVID-19 tests performed in every country, simulating the COVID-19 spread along with the potential effect of each mitigation strategy currently remains one of the most effective ways in managing the healthcare system and guiding policy-makers. Methods: We introduce COVIDHunter, a flexible and accurate COVID-19 outbreak simulation model that evaluates the current mitigation measures that are …
This paper proposes a simple method to extract from a set of multiple related time series a compressed representation for each time series based on statistics for the entire set of all time series. This is achieved by a hierarchical algorithm that first generates an alphabet of shapelets based on the segmentation of centroids for clustered data, before labels of these shapelets are assigned to the segmentation of each single time series via nearest neighbor search using unconstrained dynamic time warping as distance measure to deal with non-uniform time series lenghts. Thereby, a sequence of l…
Manipal Institute of Technology（马尼帕尔理工学院）；Carnegie Mellon University（卡内基梅隆大学）
The amount of data, manpower and capital required to understand, evaluate and agree on a group of symptoms for the elementary prognosis of pandemic diseases is enormous. In this paper, we present FedPandemic, a novel noise implementation algorithm integrated with cross-device Federated learning for Elementary symptom prognosis during a pandemic, taking COVID-19 as a case study. Our results display consistency and enhance robustness in recovering the common symptoms displayed by the disease, paving a faster and cheaper path towards symptom retrieval while also preserving the privacy of patient'…
The number of confirmed cases of COVID-19 is often used as a proxy for the actual number of ground truth COVID-19 infected cases in both public discourse and policy making. However, the number of confirmed cases depends on the testing policy, and it is important to understand how the number of positive cases obtained using different testing policies reveals the unknown ground truth. We develop an agent-based simulation framework in Python that can simulate various testing policies as well as interventions such as lockdown based on them. The interaction between the agents can take into account …
Islamic University of Technology（伊斯兰技术大学）；Shanto-Mariam University of Creative Technology（尚托-马里亚姆创意技术大学）
In this modern world, people are becoming more self-centered and unsocial. On the other hand, people are stressed, becoming more anxious during COVID-19 pandemic situation and exhibits symptoms of behavioral disorder. To measure the symptoms of behavioral disorder, usually psychiatrist use long hour sessions and inputs from specific questionnaire. This process is time consuming and sometime is ineffective to detect the right behavioral disorder. Also, reserved people sometime hesitate to follow this process. We have created a digital framework which can detect behavioral disorder and prescribe…
Acadia Institute for Data Analytics（阿卡迪亚数据分析研究所）；Acadia University（阿卡迪亚大学）
Objective: To develop machine learning models that can predict the number of COVID-19 cases per day given the last 14 days of environmental and mobility data. Approach: COVID-19 data from four counties around Toronto, Ontario, were used. Data were prepared into daily records containing the number of new COVID case counts, patient demographic data, outdoor weather variables, indoor environment factors, and human movement based on cell mobility and public health restrictions. This data was analyzed to determine the most important variables and their interactions. Predictive models were developed…
Early detection and isolation of COVID-19 patients are essential for successful implementation of mitigation strategies and eventually curbing the disease spread. With a limited number of daily COVID-19 tests performed in every country, simulating the COVID-19 spread along with the potential effect of each mitigation strategy currently remains one of the most effective ways in managing the healthcare system and guiding policy-makers. We introduce COVIDHunter, a flexible and accurate COVID-19 outbreak simulation model that evaluates the current mitigation measures that are applied to a region, …
COVID-19 which has spread in Iran from February 19, 2020, has infected 202,584 people and killed 9,507 people until June 20, 2020. The immediate suggested solution to prevent the spread of this virus was to avoid traveling around. In this study, the correlation between traveling between cities with new confirmed cases of COVID-19 in Iran is demonstrated. The data, used in the study, consisted of the daily inter-state traffic, air traffic data, and daily new COVID-19 confirmed cases. The data is used to train a regression model and voting was used to show the highest correlation between travels…
Coswara: A respiratory sounds and symptoms dataset for remote screening of SARS-CoV-2 infection
Indian Institute of Science（印度科学学院）；Fraunhofer Institute of Integrated Circuits（弗劳恩霍夫集成电路研究所）；Ramaiah Medical College Hospital（拉马亚医学院医院）；General Hospital, Hoskote（霍斯科特综合医院）；PSG Institute of Medical Sciences and Research（PSG医学科学与研究学院）
University of Minnesota（明尼苏达大学）；Emory University（埃默里大学）；M Health Fairview Informatics（M Health Fairview 信息学）；Indiana University（印第安纳大学）；North Memorial Health Hospital（North Memorial Health 医院）
Importance: An artificial intelligence (AI)-based model to predict COVID-19 likelihood from chest x-ray (CXR) findings can serve as an important adjunct to accelerate immediate clinical decision making and improve clinical decision making. Despite significant efforts, many limitations and biases exist in previously developed AI diagnostic models for COVID-19. Utilizing a large set of local and international CXR images, we developed an AI model with high performance on temporal and external validation. Conclusions and Relevance: AI-based diagnostic tools may serve as an adjunct, but not replace…
