Substantial efforts have been devoted to the investigation of spatiotemporal correlations for improving traffic speed prediction accuracy. However, existing works typically model the correlations based solely on the observed traffic state (e.g. traffic speed) without due consideration that different correlation measurements of the traffic data could exhibit a diverse set of patterns under different traffic situations. In addition, the existing works assume that all road segments can employ the same sampling frequency of traffic states, which is impractical. In this paper, we propose new measurements to model the spatial correlations among traffic data and show that the resulting correlation patterns vary significantly under various traffic situations. We propose a Heterogeneous Spatial Correlation (HSC) model to capture the spatial correlation based on a specific measurement, where the traffic data of varying road segments can be heterogeneous (i.e. obtained with different sampling frequency). We propose a Multi-fold Correlation Attention Network (MCAN), which relies on the HSC model to explore multi-fold spatial correlations and leverage LSTM networks to capture multi-fold temporal correlations to provide discriminating features in order to achieve accurate traffic prediction. The learned multi-fold spatiotemporal correlations together with contextual factors are fused with attention mechanism to make the final predictions. Experiments on real-world datasets demonstrate that the proposed MCAN model outperforms the state-of-the-art baselines.
The paper introduces a new dataset to assess the performance of machine learning algorithms in the prediction of the seriousness of injury in a traffic accident. The dataset is created by aggregating publicly available datasets from the UK Department for Transport, which are drastically imbalanced with missing attributes sometimes approaching 50\% of the overall data dimensionality. The paper presents the data analysis pipeline starting from the publicly available data of road traffic accidents and ending with predictors of possible injuries and their degree of severity. It addresses the huge …
Accurate traffic prediction is a key ingredient to enable traffic management like rerouting cars to reduce road congestion or regulating traffic via dynamic speed limits to maintain a steady flow. A way to represent traffic data is in the form of temporally changing heatmaps visualizing attributes of traffic, such as speed and volume. In recent works, U-Net models have shown SOTA performance on traffic forecasting from heatmaps. We propose to combine the U-Net architecture with graph layers which improves spatial generalization to unseen road networks compared to a Vanilla U-Net. In particular…
Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory（劳伦斯利弗莫尔国家实验室）
The ability to identify applications based on the network data they generate could be a valuable tool for cyber defense. We report on a machine learning technique capable of using netflow-like features to predict the application that generated the traffic. In our experiments, we used ground-truth labels obtained from host-based sensors deployed in a large enterprise environment; we applied random forests and multilayer perceptrons to the tasks of browser vs. non-browser identification, browser fingerprinting, and process name prediction. For each of these tasks, we demonstrate how machine lear…
Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology（韩国科学技术院）
As the demand for autonomous driving increases, it is paramount to ensure safety. Early accident prediction using deep learning methods for driving safety has recently gained much attention. In this task, early accident prediction and a point prediction of where the drivers should look are determined, with the dashcam video as input. We propose to exploit the double actors and regularized critics (DARC) method, for the first time, on this accident forecasting platform. We derive inspiration from DARC since it is currently a state-of-the-art reinforcement learning (RL) model on continuous actio…
RMIT University（皇家墨尔本理工大学）；The University of Melbourne（墨尔本大学）；Swinburne University of Technology（斯威本科技大学）
Traffic prediction is a flourishing research field due to its importance in human mobility in the urban space. Despite this, existing studies only focus on short-term prediction of up to few hours in advance, with most being up to one hour only. Long-term traffic prediction can enable more comprehensive, informed, and proactive measures against traffic congestion and is therefore an important task to explore. In this paper, we explore the task of long-term traffic prediction; where we predict traffic up to 24 hours in advance. We note the weaknesses of existing models--which are based on recur…
Universidad Politécnica de Valencia（瓦伦西亚理工大学）；Instituto de Física Corpuscular (IFIC), Universidad de Valencia-CSIC（巴伦西亚大学-西班牙国家研究委员会 科珀斯库尔物理研究所）；University of Sussex（萨塞克斯大学）；Universidad Isabel I de Castilla（卡斯蒂利亚伊莎贝尔一世大学）；AI Superior GmbH（AI Superior有限责任公司）
Traffic congestion is a major urban issue due to its adverse effects on health and the environment, so much so that reducing it has become a priority for urban decision-makers. In this work, we investigate whether a high amount of data on traffic flow throughout a city and the knowledge of the road city network allows an Artificial Intelligence to predict the traffic flux far enough in advance in order to enable emission reduction measures such as those linked to the Low Emission Zone policies. To build a predictive model, we use the city of Valencia traffic sensor system, one of the densest i…
This study proposes a deep learning methodology to predict the propagation of traffic shockwaves. The input to the deep neural network is time-space diagram of the study segment, and the output of the network is the predicted (future) propagation of the shockwave on the study segment in the form of time-space diagram. The main feature of the proposed methodology is the ability to extract the features embedded in the time-space diagram to predict the propagation of traffic shockwaves.
Predicting traffic volume in real-time can improve both traffic flow and road safety. A precise traffic volume forecast helps alert drivers to the flow of traffic along their preferred routes, preventing potential deadlock situations. Existing parametric models cannot reliably forecast traffic volume in dynamic and complex traffic conditions. Therefore, in order to evaluate and forecast the traffic volume for every given time step in a real-time manner, we develop non-linear memory-based deep neural network models. Our extensive experiments run on the Metro Interstate Traffic Volume dataset de…
Telekom Innovation Laboratories（电信创新实验室）；Ben-Gurion University of the Negev（内盖夫本-古里安大学）；BENOCS GmbH（BENOCS有限公司）
Large content providers and content distribution network operators usually connect with large Internet service providers (eyeball networks) through dedicated private peering. The capacity of these private network interconnects is provisioned to match the volume of the real content demand by the users. Unfortunately, in case of a surge in traffic demand, for example due to a content trending in a certain country, the capacity of the private interconnect may deplete and the content provider/distributor would have to reroute the excess traffic through transit providers. Although, such overflow ev…
In this technical report, we present our solution to the Traffic4Cast 2021 Core Challenge, in which participants were asked to develop algorithms for predicting a traffic state 60 minutes ahead, based on the information from the previous hour, in 4 different cities. In contrast to the previously held competitions, this year's challenge focuses on the temporal domain shift in traffic due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Following the past success of U-Net, we utilize it for predicting future traffic maps. Additionally, we explore the usage of pre-trained encoders such as DenseNet and EfficientNet and …
National University of Singapore（新加坡国立大学）；Singapore-MIT Alliance for Research and Technology（新加坡-麻省理工学院研究与技术联盟）；MIT（麻省理工学院）；Carnegie Mellon University（卡内基梅隆大学）；University of Southern California（南加州大学）
The problem of modeling and predicting spatiotemporal traffic phenomena over an urban road network is important to many traffic applications such as detecting and forecasting congestion hotspots. This paper presents a decentralized data fusion and active sensing (D2FAS) algorithm for mobile sensors to actively explore the road network to gather and assimilate the most informative data for predicting the traffic phenomenon. We analyze the time and communication complexity of D2FAS and demonstrate that it can scale well with a large number of observations and sensors. We provide a theoretical gu…
TensorCell；Faculty of Mathematics, Informatics and Mechanics（数学、信息学与力学学院）；University of Warsaw（华沙大学）
We present a method for approximating outcomes of road traffic simulations using BERT-based models, which may find applications in, e.g., optimizing traffic signal settings, especially with the presence of autonomous and connected vehicles. The experiments were conducted on a dataset generated using the Traffic Simulation Framework software runs on a realistic road network. The BERT-based models were compared with 4 other types of machine learning models (LightGBM, fully connected neural networks and 2 types of graph neural networks) and gave the best results in terms of all the considered met…
We present BusTr, a machine-learned model for translating road traffic forecasts into predictions of bus delays, used by Google Maps to serve the majority of the world's public transit systems where no official real-time bus tracking is provided. We demonstrate that our neural sequence model improves over DeepTTE, the state-of-the-art baseline, both in performance (-30% MAPE) and training stability. We also demonstrate significant generalization gains over simpler models, evaluated on longitudinal data to cope with a constantly evolving world.
Traffic problems have seriously affected people's life quality and urban development, and forecasting the short-term traffic congestion is of great importance to both individuals and governments. However, understanding and modeling the traffic conditions can be extremely difficult, and our observations from real traffic data reveal that (1) similar traffic congestion patterns exist in the neighboring time slots and on consecutive workdays; (2) the levels of traffic congestion have clear multiscale properties. To capture these characteristics, we propose a novel method named PCNN based on deep …
In its simplest form, the traffic flow prediction problem is restricted to predicting a single time-step into the future. Multi-step traffic flow prediction extends this set-up to the case where predicting multiple time-steps into the future based on some finite history is of interest. This problem is significantly more difficult than its single-step variant and is known to suffer from degradation in predictions as the time step increases. In this paper, two approaches to improve multi-step traffic flow prediction performance in recursive and multi-output settings are introduced. In particular…
Ulsan National Institute of Science and Technology（蔚山科学技术院）；NAVER（NAVER公司）；Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology（韩国科学技术院）
To tackle ever-increasing city traffic congestion problems, researchers have proposed deep learning models to aid decision-makers in the traffic control domain. Although the proposed models have been remarkably improved in recent years, there are still questions that need to be answered before deploying models. For example, it is difficult to figure out which models provide state-of-the-art performance, as recently proposed models have often been evaluated with different datasets and experiment environments. It is also difficult to determine which models would work when traffic conditions chan…
This paper presents a novel framework using neural cellular automata (NCA) to regenerate and predict geographic information. The model extends the idea of using NCA to generate/regenerate a specific image by training the model with various geographic data, and thus, taking the traffic condition map as an example, the model is able to predict traffic conditions by giving certain induction information. Our research verified the analogy between NCA and gene in biology, while the innovation of the model significantly widens the boundary of possible applications based on NCAs. From our experimental…
Dublin City University（都柏林城市大学）；Insight SFI Research Centre for Data Analytics（Insight SFI数据分析研究中心）
Nowadays, intelligent highway traffic network is playing an important role in modern transportation infrastructures. A variable speed limit (VSL) system can be facilitated in the highway traffic network to provide useful and dynamic speed limit information for drivers to travel with enhanced safety. Such system is usually designed with a steady advisory speed in mind so that traffic can move smoothly when drivers follow the speed, rather than speeding up whenever there is a gap and slowing down at congestion. However, little attention has been given to the research of vehicles' behaviours when…
In modern traffic management, one of the most essential yet challenging tasks is accurately and timely predicting traffic. It has been well investigated and examined that deep learning-based Spatio-temporal models have an edge when exploiting Spatio-temporal relationships in traffic data. Typically, data-driven models require vast volumes of data, but gathering data in small cities can be difficult owing to constraints such as equipment deployment and maintenance costs. To resolve this problem, we propose TrafficTL, a cross-city traffic prediction approach that uses big data from other cities …
Vehicle acceleration and deceleration maneuvers at traffic signals results in significant fuel and energy consumption levels. Green light optimal speed advisory systems require reliable estimates of signal switching times to improve vehicle fuel efficiency. Obtaining these estimates is difficult for actuated signals where the length of each green indication changes to accommodate varying traffic conditions. This study details a four-step Long Short-Term Memory deep learning-based methodology that can be used to provide reasonable switching time estimates from green to red and vice versa while …
Texas A&M University（德克萨斯A&M大学）；Texas A&M University at Galveston（德克萨斯A&M大学加尔维斯顿分校）；University of Delaware（特拉华大学）
The objective of this study is to predict road flooding risks based on topographic, hydrologic, and temporal precipitation features using machine learning models. Predictive flood monitoring of road network flooding status plays an essential role in community hazard mitigation, preparedness, and response activities. Existing studies related to the estimation of road inundations either lack observed road inundation data for model validations or focus mainly on road inundation exposure assessment based on flood maps. This study addresses this limitation by using crowdsourced and fine-grained tra…
Predicting the traffic incident duration is a hard problem to solve due to the stochastic nature of incident occurrence in space and time, a lack of information at the beginning of a reported traffic disruption, and lack of advanced methods in transport engineering to derive insights from past accidents. This paper proposes a new fusion framework for predicting the incident duration from limited information by using an integration of machine learning with traffic flow/speed and incident description as features, encoded via several Deep Learning methods (ANN autoencoder and character-level LSTM…
It is crucial for the service provider to comprehend and forecast mobile traffic in large-scale cellular networks in order to govern and manage mechanisms for base station placement, load balancing, and network planning. The purpose of this article is to extract and simulate traffic patterns from more than 14,000 cells that have been installed in different metropolitan areas. To do this, we create, implement, and assess a method in which cells are first categorized by their point of interest and then clustered based on the temporal distribution of cells in each region. The proposed model has b…
With the aim to enhance automation in conflict detection and resolution (CD&R) tasks in the Air Traffic Management domain, in this paper we propose deep learning techniques (DL) that can learn models of Air Traffic Controllers' (ATCO) reactions in resolving conflicts that can violate separation minimum constraints among aircraft trajectories: This implies learning when the ATCO will react towards resolving a conflict, and how he/she will react. Timely reactions, to which this paper aims, focus on when do reactions happen, aiming to predict the trajectory points, as the trajectory evolves, that…
Proactive evacuation traffic management largely depends on real-time monitoring and prediction of traffic flow at a high spatiotemporal resolution. However, evacuation traffic prediction is challenging due to the uncertainties caused by sudden changes in projected hurricane paths and consequently household evacuation behavior. Moreover, modeling spatiotemporal traffic flow patterns requires extensive data over a longer time period, whereas evacuations typically last for 2 to 5 days. In this paper, we present a novel data-driven approach for predicting evacuation traffic at a network scale. We …
The wide spread use of positioning and photographing devices gives rise to a deluge of traffic trajectory data (e.g., vehicle passage records and taxi trajectory data), with each record having at least three attributes: object ID, location ID, and time-stamp. In this paper, we propose a novel mobility pattern embedding model called MPE to shed the light on people's mobility patterns in traffic trajectory data from multiple aspects, including sequential, personal, and temporal factors. MPE has two salient features: (1) it is capable of casting various types of information (object, location and …
Jožef Stefan Institute（约热·斯特凡研究所）；Qlector d.o.o.（Qlector有限责任公司）；Jožef Stefan International Postgraduate School（约热·斯特凡国际研究生学校）
Demand forecasting is a crucial component of demand management. While shortening the forecasting horizon allows for more recent data and less uncertainty, this frequently means lower data aggregation levels and a more significant data sparsity. Sparse demand data usually results in lumpy or intermittent demand patterns, which have sparse and irregular demand intervals. Usual statistical and machine learning models fail to provide good forecasts in such scenarios. Our research shows that competitive demand forecasts can be obtained through two models: predicting the demand occurrence and estima…
A deep learning model is applied for predicting block-level parking occupancy in real time. The model leverages Graph-Convolutional Neural Networks (GCNN) to extract the spatial relations of traffic flow in large-scale networks, and utilizes Recurrent Neural Networks (RNN) with Long-Short Term Memory (LSTM) to capture the temporal features. In addition, the model is capable of taking multiple heterogeneously structured traffic data sources as input, such as parking meter transactions, traffic speed, and weather conditions. The model performance is evaluated through a case study in Pittsburgh d…
DATA61|CSIRO（联邦科学与工业研究组织数据61所）；Australian National University（澳大利亚国立大学）；University of Technology in Sydney（悉尼科技大学）
Predicting traffic incident duration is a major challenge for many traffic centres around the world. Most research studies focus on predicting the incident duration on motorways rather than arterial roads, due to a high network complexity and lack of data. In this paper we propose a bi-level framework for predicting the accident duration on arterial road networks in Sydney, based on operational requirements of incident clearance target which is less than 45 minutes. Using incident baseline information, we first deploy a classification method using various ensemble tree models in order to predi…
New York University Abu Dhabi（纽约大学阿布扎比分校）；New York University Tandon School of Engineering（纽约大学坦登工程学院）
This paper addresses the problem of short-term traffic prediction for signalized traffic operations management. Specifically, we focus on predicting sensor states in high-resolution (second-by-second). This contrasts with traditional traffic forecasting problems, which have focused on predicting aggregated traffic variables, typically over intervals that are no shorter than 5 minutes. Our contributions can be summarized as offering three insights: first, we show how the prediction problem can be modeled as a matrix completion problem. Second, we employ a block-coordinate descent algorithm and …
Informed along the road: roadway capacity driven graph convolution network for network-wide traffic prediction
Tandon School of Engineering, New York University（纽约大学工程学院）；State Key Laboratory of Internet of Things for Smart City, University of Macau（澳门大学物联网智能城市国家重点实验室）
Discovering the Precursors of Traffic Breakdowns Using Spatiotemporal Graph Attribution Networks
Department of Civil Engineering and Engineering Mechanics, Columbia University School of Economics, Minzu University of China（土木工程与工程力学系，哥伦比亚大学经济学院，中国民族大学）；Vehicle and Mobility Systems Department, Argonne National Laboratory（车辆与移动系统部，阿贡国家实验室）；School of Sustainable Engineering and the Built Environment, Arizona State University（可持续工程与环境学院，亚利桑那州立大学）
DATA61|CSIRO（联邦科学与工业研究组织数据61所）；University of Technology, Sydney（悉尼科技大学）
The study focuses on estimating and predicting time-varying origin to destination (OD) trip tables for a dynamic traffic assignment (DTA) model. A bi-level optimisation problem is formulated and solved to estimate OD flows from pre-existent demand matrix and historical traffic flow counts. The estimated demand is then considered as an input for a time series OD demand prediction model to support the DTA model for short-term traffic condition forecasting. Results show a high capability of the proposed OD demand estimation method to reduce the DTA model error through an iterative solution algori…
The Chinese University of Hong Kong（香港中文大学）；Noah’s Ark Lab, Huawei Technologies（华为技术有限公司诺亚方舟实验室）
In this paper we use a time-evolving graph which consists of a sequence of graph snapshots over time to model many real-world networks. We study the path classification problem in a time-evolving graph, which has many applications in real-world scenarios, for example, predicting path failure in a telecommunication network and predicting path congestion in a traffic network in the near future. In order to capture the temporal dependency and graph structure dynamics, we design a novel deep neural network named Long Short-Term Memory R-GCN (LRGCN). LRGCN considers temporal dependency between time…
Predicting large-scale transportation network traffic has become an important and challenging topic in recent decades. Inspired by the domain knowledge of motion prediction, in which the future motion of an object can be predicted based on previous scenes, we propose a network grid representation method that can retain the fine-scale structure of a transportation network. Network-wide traffic speeds are converted into a series of static images and input into a novel deep architecture, namely, spatiotemporal recurrent convolutional networks (SRCNs), for traffic forecasting. The proposed SRCNs i…
Predicting and Explaining Traffic Crash Severity Through Crash Feature Selection
Honda Research Institute Europe（霍恩达欧洲研究机构）；The Ohio State University（俄亥俄州立大学）；Department of Computer Science, University of Crete（克里特大学计算机科学系）；American Honda Motor Co., Inc.（美国本田摩托公司）
In this paper, we have proposed STC-GEF, a novel Spatio-Temporal Cross-platform Graph Embedding Fusion approach for the urban traffic flow prediction. We have designed a spatial embedding module based on graph convolutional networks (GCN) to extract the complex spatial features within traffic flow data. Furthermore, to capture the temporal dependencies between the traffic flow data from various time intervals, we have designed a temporal embedding module based on recurrent neural networks. Based on the observations that different transportation platforms trip data (e.g., taxis, Uber, and Lyft)…
