PreMevE更新：预测地球外辐射带内的超相对论电子
PreMevE Update: Forecasting Ultra-relativistic Electrons inside Earth's Outer Radiation Belt
摘要：
地球外层范艾伦带内的高能电子对在现代社会中发挥重要作用的星载电子设备构成了重大辐射威胁。能量大于或等于2兆电子伏（MeV）的超相对论电子由于其高穿透能力而特别令人感兴趣，因此预测这些>=2兆电子伏的电子能级对所有空间部门都具有重要意义。在这里，我们更新的MeV电子预测模型的最新发展，在地球的外辐射带。新版本称为PreMevE-2 E，侧重于预测整个外辐射带的超相对论电子通量分布，除了地球同步轨道外，不需要现场测量。模型的输入包括NOAA卫星在低地球轨道观测到的沉淀电子、太阳风监测器观测到的上游太阳风条件（速度和密度）以及洛斯阿拉莫斯地球同步轨道卫星测量到的超相对论电子。我们评估了总共32个监督机器学习模型，这些模型分为四类不同的线性和神经网络架构，并通过使用一组性能最好的模型成功测试了集成预测。所有模型都经过单独训练、验证，并通过NASA范艾伦探测器任务的现场电子数据进行测试。结果表明，最终的集合模式一般优于单个模式的L壳，这个PreMevE-2 E模式提供了可靠的和高保真的25小时（~1天）和50小时（~2天）的预测与高的平均性能效率值。我们的研究结果还表明，这个新的模型是由非线性分量在低L-壳层（< ~4）的超相对论电子，这是不同于线性分量的优势，在所有的L-壳层的1 MeV电子，如以前发现的。
英文摘要：
Energetic electrons inside Earth's outer Van Allen belt pose a major radiation threat to space-borne electronics that often play vital roles in our modern society. Ultra-relativistic electrons with energies greater than or equal to two Megaelectron-volt (MeV) are of particular interest due to their high penetrating ability, and thus forecasting these >=2 MeV electron levels has significant meaning to all space sectors. Here we update the latest development of the predictive model for MeV electrons inside the Earth's outer radiation belt. The new version, called PreMevE-2E, focuses on forecasting ultra-relativistic electron flux distributions across the outer radiation belt, with no need of in-situ measurements except for at the geosynchronous (GEO) orbit. Model inputs include precipitating electrons observed in low-Earth-orbits by NOAA satellites, upstream solar wind conditions (speeds and densities) from solar wind monitors, as well as ultra-relativistic electrons measured by one Los Alamos GEO satellite. We evaluated a total of 32 supervised machine learning models that fall into four different classes of linear and neural network architectures, and also successfully tested ensemble forecasting by using groups of top-performing models. All models are individually trained, validated, and tested by in-situ electron data from NASA's Van Allen Probes mission. It is shown that the final ensemble model generally outperforms individual models overs L-shells, and this PreMevE-2E model provides reliable and high-fidelity 25-hr (~1-day) and 50-hr (~2-day) forecasts with high mean performance efficiency values. Our results also suggest this new model is dominated by non-linear components at low L-shells (< ~4) for ultra-relativistic electrons, which is different from the dominance of linear components at all L-shells for 1 MeV electrons as previously discovered.
机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来，可能存在错误，请以论文正文为准。
