分析入学指标作为研究生GPA的预测因素以及研究生GPA是否介导PhD完成
Analyzing admissions metrics as predictors of graduate GPA and whether graduate GPA mediates PhD completion
摘要：
对19个博士项目的1,955名物理研究生的分析表明，本科平均成绩比GRE成绩更有效地预测研究生成绩和博士学位完成情况。学生的本科GPA（UGPA）和GRE物理（GRE-P）分数是研究生课程成绩的小但统计学上显着的预测因子，而GRE定量和GRE口头分数则不是。我们还发现，男性和女性在研究生课程中的成绩同样出色，尽管性别之间的GRE-P评分中位数存在统计学显著的18个百分点的差距。一个反事实的中介分析表明，在录取指标测试只有UGPA是一个重要的预测整体博士学位的完成，UGPA预测博士学位的完成间接通过研究生成绩。因此，UGPA衡量的是与研究生课程成绩相关的特质，而这些特质又反过来预测研究生的完成情况。虽然GRE-P分数与博士学位的完成没有显着相关性，但我们的研究结果表明，它们可能具有的任何预测效果也与研究生GPA间接相关。总体而言，我们的研究结果表明，在常用的定量招生指标中，UGPA提供了最深入的研究生院成功的两个重要措施，同时提出较少的关注公平招生的做法。
英文摘要：
An analysis of 1,955 physics graduate students from 19 PhD programs shows that undergraduate grade point average predicts graduate grades and PhD completion more effectively than GRE scores. Students' undergraduate GPA (UGPA) and GRE Physics (GRE-P) scores are small but statistically significant predictors of graduate course grades, while GRE quantitative and GRE verbal scores are not. We also find that males and females score equally well in their graduate coursework despite a statistically significant 18 percentile point gap in median GRE-P scores between genders. A counterfactual mediation analysis demonstrates that among admission metrics tested only UGPA is a significant predictor of overall PhD completion, and that UGPA predicts PhD completion indirectly through graduate grades. Thus UGPA measures traits linked to graduate course grades, which in turn predict graduate completion. Although GRE-P scores are not significantly associated with PhD completion, our results suggest that any predictive effect they may have are also linked indirectly through graduate GPA. Overall our results indicate that among commonly used quantitative admissions metrics, UGPA offers the most insight into two important measures of graduate school success, while posing fewer concerns for equitable admissions practices.
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