The random coefficients model $Y_i={β_0}_i+{β_1}_i {X_1}_i+{β_2}_i {X_2}_i+\ldots+{β_d}_i {X_d}_i$, with $\mathbf{X}_i$, $Y_i$, $\mathbfβ_i$ i.i.d, and $\mathbfβ_i$ independent of $X_i$ is often used to capture unobserved heterogeneity in a population. We propose a quasi-maximum likelihood method to estimate the joint density distribution of the random coefficient model. This method implicitly involves the inversion of the Radon transformation in order to reconstruct the joint distribution, and hence is an inverse problem. Nonparametric estimation for the joint density of $\mathbfβ_i=({β_0}_i,\ldots, {β_d}_i)$ based on kernel methods or Fourier inversion have been proposed in recent years. Most of these methods assume a heavy tailed design density $f_\mathbf{X}$. To add stability to the solution, we apply regularization methods. We analyze the convergence of the method without assuming heavy tails for $f_\mathbf{X}$ and illustrate performance by applying the method on simulated and real data. To add stability to the solution, we apply a Tikhonov-type regularization method.
Mixture of Experts (MoE) are successful models for modeling heterogeneous data in many statistical learning problems including regression, clustering and classification. Generally fitted by maximum likelihood estimation via the well-known EM algorithm, their application to high-dimensional problems is still therefore challenging. We consider the problem of fitting and feature selection in MoE models, and propose a regularized maximum likelihood estimation approach that encourages sparse solutions for heterogeneous regression data models with potentially high-dimensional predictors. Unlike stat…
The maximum likelihood principle is widely used in statistics, and the associated estimators often display good properties. indeed maximum likelihood estimators are guaranteed to be asymptotically efficient under mild conditions. However in some settings, one has too few samples to get a good estimation. It then becomes desirable to take into account prior information about the distribution one wants to estimate. One possible approach is to extend the maximum likelihood principle in a bayesian context, which then becomes a maximum a posteriori estimate; however this requires a distribution mod…
Data harmonization is the process by which an equivalence is developed between two variables measuring a common trait. Our problem is motivated by dementia research in which multiple tests are used in practice to measure the same underlying cognitive ability such as language or memory. We connect this statistical problem to mixing distribution estimation. We introduce and study a non-parametric latent trait model, develop a method which enforces uniqueness of the regularized maximum likelihood estimator, show how a nonparametric EM algorithm will converge weakly to its maximizer, and additiona…
The main theme of this paper is a modification of the likelihood ratio test (LRT) for testing high dimensional covariance matrix. Recently, the correct asymptotic distribution of the LRT for a large-dimensional case (the case $p/n$ approaches to a constant $γ\in (0,1]$) is specified by researchers. The correct procedure is named as corrected LRT. Despite of its correction, the corrected LRT is a function of sample eigenvalues that are suffered from redundant variability from high dimensionality and, subsequently, still does not have full power in differentiating hypotheses on the covariance ma…
In this paper the maximum likelihood equations for the parameters of the Weight Lindley distribution are studied considering different types of censoring, such as, type I, type II and random censoring mechanism. A numerical simulation study is perform to evaluate the maximum likelihood estimates. The proposed methodology is illustrated in a real data set.
The von Mises-Fisher distribution is one of the most widely used probability distributions to describe directional data. Finite mixtures of von Mises-Fisher distributions have found numerous applications. However, the likelihood function for the finite mixture of von Mises-Fisher distributions is unbounded and consequently the maximum likelihood estimation is not well defined. To address the problem of likelihood degeneracy, we consider a penalized maximum likelihood approach whereby a penalty function is incorporated. We prove strong consistency of the resulting estimator. An Expectation-Maxi…
In this paper, insight is given in the techniques used to compute asymptotic expansions. In a broad fashion the technique is described. Most of the results apply to the paper "An expansion for the maximum likelihood estimator and its distribution function", which will be submitted.
We present a new method for post-selection inference for L1 (lasso)-penalized likelihood models, including generalized regression models. Our approach generalizes the post-selection framework presented in Lee et al (2014). The method provides p-values and confidence intervals that are asymptotically valid, conditional on the inherent selection done by the lasso. We present applications of this work to (regularized) logistic regression, Cox's proportional hazards model and the graphical lasso.
We describe Monte Carlo approximation to the maximum likelihood estimator in models with intractable norming constants and explanatory variables. We consider both sources of randomness (due to the initial sample and to Monte Carlo simulations) and prove asymptotical normality of the estimator.
Maximum likelihood estimators are proposed for the parameters and the densities in a semiparametric density ratio model in which the nonparametric baseline density is approximated by the Bernstein polynomial model. The EM algorithm is used to obtain the maximum approximate Bernstein likelihood estimates. Simulation study shows that the performance of the proposed method is much better than the existing ones. The proposed method is illustrated by real data examples. Some asymptotic results are also presented and proved.
In this paper, expansions for the maximum likelihood estimator of location and its distribution funtion are extended to fifth order. Since the proofs are straightforward extentions of proofs given in earlier papers for orders less than the fifth, they are not given here. The purpose of the paper is mainly to present the higher order expansions.
My first paper exclusively about ridge regression was published in Technometrics and chosen for invited presentation at the 1975 Joint Statistical Meetings in Atlanta. Unfortunately, that paper contained a wide range of assorted details and results. Luckily, Gary McDonald's published discussion of that paper focused primarily on my use of Maximum Likelihood estimation under normal distribution-theory. In this review of some results from all four of my ridge publications between 1975 and 2022, I highlight the Maximum Likelihood findings that appear to be most important in practical application …
Maximum likelihood estimation of a location parameter fails when the density have unbounded mode. An alternative approach is considered by leaving out a data point to avoid the unbounded density in the full likelihood. This modification give rise to the leave-one-out likelihood. We propose an ECM algorithm which maximises the leave-one-out likelihood. It was shown that the estimator which maximises the leave-one-out likelihood is consistent and super-efficient. However, other asymptotic properties such as the optimal rate of convergence and asymptotic distribution is still under question. We u…
In order to overcome multicollinearity, we propose a stochastic restricted Liu-type max- imum likelihood estimator by incorporating Liu-type maximum likelihood estimator (Inan and Erdo- gan, 2013) to the logistic regression model when the linear restrictions are stochastic. We also discuss the properties of the new estimator. Moreover, we give a method to choose the biasing parameter in the new estimator. Finally, a simulation study is given to show the performance of the new estimator.
Skew normal mixture models provide a more flexible framework than the popular normal mixtures for modelling heterogeneous data with asymmetric behaviors. Due to the unboundedness of likelihood function and the divergency of shape parameters, the maximum likelihood estimators of the parameters of interest are often not well defined, leading to dissatisfactory inferential process. We put forward a proposal to deal with these issues simultaneously in the context of penalizing the likelihood function. The resulting penalized maximum likelihood estimator is proved to be strongly consistent when the…
In the high dimensional Stochastic Blockmodel for a random network, the number of clusters (or blocks) K grows with the number of nodes N. Two previous studies have examined the statistical estimation performance of spectral clustering and the maximum likelihood estimator under the high dimensional model; neither of these results allow K to grow faster than N^{1/2}. We study a model where, ignoring log terms, K can grow proportionally to N. Since the number of clusters must be smaller than the number of nodes, no reasonable model allows K to grow faster; thus, our asymptotic results are the "h…
IDSIA/SUPSI；Università della Svizzera Italiana（瑞士意大利语区大学）；Vita-Salute San Raffaele University（圣拉斐尔生命健康大学）；Ruhr-Universität Bochum（波鸿鲁尔大学）；Université de Sherbrooke（舍布鲁克大学）
Do two data samples come from different distributions? Recent studies of this fundamental problem focused on embedding probability distributions into sufficiently rich characteristic Reproducing Kernel Hilbert Spaces (RKHSs), to compare distributions by the distance between their embeddings. We show that Regularized Maximum Mean Discrepancy (RMMD), our novel measure for kernel-based hypothesis testing, yields substantial improvements even when sample sizes are small, and excels at hypothesis tests involving multiple comparisons with power control. We derive asymptotic distributions under the n…
Acyclic directed mixed graphs, also known as semi-Markov models represent the conditional independence structure induced on an observed margin by a DAG model with latent variables. In this paper we present the first method for fitting these models to binary data using maximum likelihood estimation.
The complexity of a maximum likelihood estimation is measured by its maximum likelihood degree ($ML$ degree). In this paper we study the maximum likelihood problem associated to chemical networks composed by one single chemical reaction under the equilibrium assumption.
This paper deals with the problems of consistence and strong consistence of the maximum likelihood estimators of the mean and variance of the drift fractional Brownian motions observed at discrete time instants. A central limit theorem for these estimators is also obtained by using the Malliavin calculus.
Maximum-likelihood estimation (MLE) is arguably the most important tool for statisticians, and many methods have been developed to find the MLE. We present a new inequality involving posterior distributions of a latent variable that holds under very general conditions. It is related to the EM algorithm and has a clear potential for being used in a similar fashion.
This paper explores Maximum Likelihood in parametric models in the context of Sanov type Large Deviation Probabilities. MLE in parametric models under weighted sampling is shown to be associated with the minimization of a specific divergence criterion defined with respect to the distribution of the weights. Some properties of the resulting inferential procedure are presented; Bahadur efficiency of tests are also considered in this context.
We consider parameter estimation in finite hidden state space Markov models with time-dependent inhomogeneous noise, where the inhomogeneity vanishes sufficiently fast. Based on the concept of asymptotic mean stationary processes we prove that the maximum likelihood and a quasi-maximum likelihood estimator (QMLE) are strongly consistent. The computation of the QMLE ignores the inhomogeneity, hence, is much simpler and robust. The theory is motivated by an example from biophysics and applied to a Poisson- and linear Gaussian model.
We consider the problem of estimating the joint distribution function of the event time and a continuous mark variable based on censored data. More specifically, the event time is subject to current status censoring and the continuous mark is only observed in case inspection takes place after the event time. The nonparametric maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) in this model is known to be inconsistent. We propose and study an alternative likelihood based estimator, maximizing a smoothed log-likelihood, hence called a maximum smoothed likelihood estimator (MSLE). This estimator is shown to be w…
The maximum likelihood estimation of the left-truncated log-logistic distribution with a given truncation point is analyzed in detail from both mathematical and numerical perspectives. These maximum likelihood equations often do not possess a solution, even for small truncations. A simple criterion is provided for the existence of a regular maximum likelihood solution. In this case a profile likelihood function can be constructed and the optimisation problem is reduced to one dimension. When the maximum likelihood equations do not admit a solution for certain data samples, it is shown that the…
We study the problem of parameter estimation using maximum likelihood for fast/slow systems of stochastic differential equations. Our aim is to shed light on the problem of model/data mismatch at small scales. We consider two classes of fast/slow problems for which a closed coarse-grained equation for the slow variables can be rigorously derived, which we refer to as averaging and homogenization problems. We ask whether, given data from the slow variable in the fast/slow system, we can correctly estimate parameters in the drift of the coarse-grained equation for the slow variable, using maximu…
Strong consistency of the quasi-maximum likelihood estimator is given for a general class of multidimensional causal processes based on asyMmetric laplacian innovation.
Indirect inference estimators (i.e., simulation-based minimum distance estimators) in a parametric model that are based on auxiliary non-parametric maximum likelihood density estimators are shown to be asymptotically normal. If the parametric model is correctly specified, it is furthermore shown that the asymptotic variance-covariance matrix equals the inverse of the Fisher-information matrix. These results are based on uniform-in-parameters convergence rates and a uniform-in-parameters Donsker-type theorem for non-parametric maximum likelihood density estimators.
Maximum likelihood estimation is a fundamental optimization problem in statistics. We study this problem on manifolds of matrices with bounded rank. These represent mixtures of distributions of two independent discrete random variables. We determine the maximum likelihood degree for a range of determinantal varieties, and we apply numerical algebraic geometry to compute all critical points of their likelihood functions. This led to the discovery of maximum likelihood duality between matrices of complementary ranks, a result proved subsequently by Draisma and Rodriguez.
We have shown in previous work that statistical inference for cooperative sequential adsorption model can be based on maximum likelihood estimation. In this paper we continue this research and establish asymptotic normality of the maximum likelihood estimator in thermodynamic limit. We also perform and discuss some numerical simulations of the model.
We show that algebraic varieties with maximum likelihood degree one are exactly the images of reduced A-discriminantal varieties under monomial maps with finite fibers. The maximum likelihood estimator corresponding to such a variety is Kapranov's Horn uniformization. This extends Kapranov's characterization of A-discriminantal hypersurfaces to varieties of arbitrary codimension.
Spatial-temporal linear model and the corresponding likelihood-based statistical inference are important tools for the analysis of spatial-temporal lattice data. In this paper, we study the asymptotic properties of maximum likelihood estimates under a general asymptotic framework for spatial-temporal linear models. We propose mild regularity conditions on the spatial-temporal weight matrices and derive the asymptotic properties (consistency and asymptotic normality) of maximum likelihood estimates. A simulation study is conducted to examine the finite-sample properties of the maximum likelihoo…
This paper considers the asymptotic properties of the recursive maximum likelihood estimation in hidden Markov models. The paper is focused on the asymptotic behavior of the log-likelihood function and on the point-convergence and convergence rate of the recursive maximum likelihood estimator. Using the principle of analytical continuation, the analyticity of the asymptotic log-likelihood function is shown for analytically parameterized hidden Markov models. Relying on this fact and some results from differential geometry (Lojasiewicz inequality), the almost sure point-convergence of the recur…
We investigate the asymptotic properties of maximum likelihood estimators of the drift parameter for fractional vasicek model driven by a sub-fractional Brownian motion.
Maximum likelihood estimation has been extensively used in the joint analysis of repeated measurements and survival time. However, there is a lack of theoretical justification of the asymptotic properties for the maximum likelihood estimators. This paper intends to fill this gap. Specifically, we prove the consistency of the maximum likelihood estimators and derive their asymptotic distributions. The maximum likelihood estimators are shown to be semiparametrically efficient.
We establish connections between invariant theory and maximum likelihood estimation for discrete statistical models. We show that norm minimization over a torus orbit is equivalent to maximum likelihood estimation in log-linear models. We use notions of stability under a torus action to characterize the existence of the maximum likelihood estimate, and discuss connections to scaling algorithms.
Maximum likelihood estimation is a fundamental computational problem in statistics. In this note, we give a bound for the maximum likelihood degree of algebraic statistical models for discrete data. As usual, such models are identified with special very affine varieties. Using earlier work of Franecki and Kapranov, we prove that the maximum likelihood degree is always less or equal to the signed intersection-cohomology Euler characteristic. We construct counterexamples to a bound in terms of the usual Euler characteristic conjectured by Huh and Sturmfels.
We consider the problem of estimating the distribution function, the density and the hazard rate of the (unobservable) event time in the current status model. A well studied and natural nonparametric estimator for the distribution function in this model is the nonparametric maximum likelihood estimator (MLE). We study two alternative methods for the estimation of the distribution function, assuming some smoothness of the event time distribution. The first estimator is based on a maximum smoothed likelihood approach. The second method is based on smoothing the (discrete) MLE of the distribution…
Upper and lower class functions for the maximum likelihood estimator of the arrival and the service rates in a $GI/G/1$ queue are studied and the results are verified for M/M/1 queue.
In this paper, using spectral theory of Hilbertian operators, we study ARMA Gaussian processes indexed by graphs. We extend Whittle maximum likelihood estimation of the parameters for the corresponding spectral density and show their asymptotic optimality.
Empirical economic research frequently applies maximum likelihood estimation in cases where the likelihood function is analytically intractable. Most of the theoretical literature focuses on maximum simulated likelihood (MSL) estimators, while empirical and simulation analyzes often find that alternative approximation methods such as quasi-Monte Carlo simulation, Gaussian quadrature, and integration on sparse grids behave considerably better numerically. This paper generalizes the theoretical results widely known for MSL estimators to a general set of maximum approximated likelihood (MAL) esti…
In finite mixtures of location-scale distributions, if there is no constraint or penalty on the parameters, then the maximum likelihood estimator does not exist because the likelihood is unbounded. To avoid this problem, we consider a penalized likelihood, where the penalty is a function of the minimum of the ratios of the scale parameters and the sample size. It is shown that the penalized maximum likelihood estimator is strongly consistent. We also analyze the consistency of a penalized maximum likelihood estimator where the penalty is imposed on the scale parameters themselves.
Multiple root estimation problems in statistical inference arise in many contexts in the literature. In the context of maximum likelihood estimation, the existence of multiple roots causes uncertainty in the computation of maximum likelihood estimators using hill-climbing algorithms, and consequent difficulties in the resulting statistical inference. In this paper, we study the multiple roots phenomenon in maximum likelihood estimation for factor analysis. We prove that the corresponding likelihood equations have uncountably many feasible solutions even in the simplest cases. For the case in w…
In this article, we investigate Maximum Likelihood Estimation with tools from Tropical Geometry and Bernstein--Sato theory. We investigate the critical points of very affine varieties and study their asymptotic behavior. We relate these asymptotics to particular rays in the tropical variety as well as to Bernstein--Sato ideals and give a connection to Maximum Likelihood Estimation in Statistics.
We discuss maximum likelihood estimation of parameters for models governed by a stochastic differential equation driven by a mixed fractional Brownian motion with random effects.
We give a statistical interpretation of entropic optimal transport by showing that performing maximum-likelihood estimation for Gaussian deconvolution corresponds to calculating a projection with respect to the entropic optimal transport distance. This structural result gives theoretical support for the wide adoption of these tools in the machine learning community.
We characterize the existence of the maximum likelihood estimator for discrete exponential families. Our criterion is simple to apply as we show in various settings, most notably for exponential models of random graphs. As an application, we point out the size of independent identically distributed samples for which the maximum likelihood estimator exists with high probability.
We consider covariance parameter estimation for a Gaussian process under inequality constraints (boundedness, monotonicity or convexity) in fixed-domain asymptotics. We address the estimation of the variance parameter and the estimation of the microergodic parameter of the Matérn and Wendland covariance functions. First, we show that the (unconstrained) maximum likelihood estimator has the same asymptotic distribution, unconditionally and conditionally to the fact that the Gaussian process satisfies the inequality constraints. Then, we study the recently suggested constrained maximum likelihoo…
This paper deals with multivariate Gaussian models for which the covariance matrix is a Kronecker product of two matrices. We consider maximum likelihood estimation of the model parameters, in particular of the covariance matrix. There is no explicit expression for the maximum likelihood estimator of a Kronecker product covariance matrix. The main question in this paper is whether the maximum likelihood estimator of the covariance matrix exists and if it is unique. The answers are different for different models that we consider.
We establish the consistency of a nonparametric maximum likelihood estimator for a class of stochastic inverse problems. We proceed by embedding the framework into the general settings of early results of Pfanzagl related to mixtures.
We consider maximum likelihood estimation with data from a bivariate Gaussian process with a separable exponential covariance model under fixed domain asymptotic. We first characterize the equivalence of Gaussian measures under this model. Then consistency and asymptotic distribution for the microergodic parameters are established. A simulation study is presented in order to compare the finite sample behavior of the maximum likelihood estimator with the given asymptotic distribution.
In this paper, we study sample size thresholds for maximum likelihood estimation for tensor normal models. Given the model parameters and the number of samples, we determine whether, almost surely, (1) the likelihood function is bounded from above, (2) maximum likelihood estimates (MLEs) exist, and (3) MLEs exist uniquely. We obtain a complete answer for both real and complex models. One consequence of our results is that almost sure boundedness of the log-likelihood function guarantees almost sure existence of an MLE. Our techniques are based on invariant theory and castling transforms.
We study the critical points of the likelihood function over the Fermat hypersurface. This problem is related to one of the main problems in statistical optimization: maximum likelihood estimation. The number of critical points over a projective variety is a topological invariant of the variety and is called maximum likelihood degree. We provide closed formulas for the maximum likelihood degree of any Fermat curve in the projective plane and of Fermat hypersurfaces of degree 2 in any projective space. Algorithmic methods to compute the ML degree of a generic Fermat hypersurface are developed t…
