基于仿真的COVID-19在大学校园教室传播的分析
Simulation-Based Analysis of COVID-19 Spread Through Classroom Transmission on a University Campus
摘要：
空气传播现在被认为是COVID-19传播的主要方式。我们研究了与在大学校园内举办面对面课程相关的空气传播风险。我们利用一个模型，空气传播的风险在一个封闭的房间，考虑了房间的换气率，口罩的效率，最初的感染概率的居住者，以及居住者的活动水平。我们引入并使用一个指标$R_0^{eff}$进行评估，该指标表示一周内由于课堂互动而发生的新感染与本周初感染人数的比率。这可以被看作是众所周知的$R_0$生殖数量度量的替代，但限于课堂互动的范围，并每周计算。模拟考虑到学生之间在整个星期重复的课堂互动的可能性。我们提出了使用美国一所大型大学2019年秋季和2020年秋季课程注册数据生成的模型预测，使我们能够评估面对面课程和混合课程之间传播风险的差异。我们量化了参数的影响，例如减少的占用水平和口罩功效。我们的模拟表明，普遍使用口罩导致通过课堂互动的新感染的大约$3.6\times$减少。将90%的课程转移到网上，可以减少大约$18\times$的新病例。通过混合班级将班级占用率降低到20%，导致新感染的进一步减少约$2.15-2.3\times$。
英文摘要：
Airborne transmission is now believed to be the primary way that COVID-19 spreads. We study the airborne transmission risk associated with holding in-person classes on university campuses. We utilize a model for airborne transmission risk in an enclosed room that considers the air change rate for the room, mask efficiency, initial infection probability of the occupants, and also the activity level of the occupants. We introduce, and use for our evaluations, a metric $R_0^{eff}$ that represents the ratio of new infections that occur over a week due to classroom interactions to the number of infected individuals at the beginning of the week. This can be seen as a surrogate for the well-known $R_0$ reproductive number metric, but limited in scope to classroom interactions and calculated on a weekly basis. The simulations take into account the possibility of repeated in-classroom interactions between students throughout the week. We presented model predictions were generated using Fall 2019 and Fall 2020 course registration data at a large US university, allowing us to evaluate the difference in transmission risk between in-person and hybrid programs. We quantify the impact of parameters such as reduced occupancy levels and mask efficacy. Our simulations indicate that universal mask usage results in an approximately $3.6\times$ reduction in new infections through classroom interactions. Moving 90% of the classes online leads to about $18\times$ reduction in new cases. Reducing class occupancy to 20%, by having hybrid classes, results in an approximately $2.15-2.3\times$ further reduction in new infections.
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