使用基于代理的网络模型评估欧洲大学Omicron传播缓解策略的有效性
Assessment of the effectiveness of Omicron transmission mitigation strategies for European universities using an agent-based network model
摘要：
在COVID-19疫情持续期间，让大学恢复全面的校园运营在许多国家一直是一个有争议的讨论。在密集的课程设置中爆发大规模疫情的风险与面对面教学的好处形成对比。传播风险取决于一系列参数，如疫苗接种覆盖率和效力、接触人数和采取非药物干预措施。由于欧洲普遍的学术自由，许多大学被要求自主决定和实施干预措施，并规范校园运作。在快速变化的疫苗接种覆盖率和病毒参数的背景下，大学往往缺乏足够的科学洞察力，这些决策的基础上，为了解决这个问题，我们分析了一个校准的，数据驱动的代理人为基础的模拟传输动态的10755名学生和974名教职员工在一个中等规模的欧洲大学。我们使用一个从学生入学数据重建的共址网络，并根据教育机构的疫情规模分布校准传播风险。我们专注于可行的干预措施，这些干预措施是大学现有决策过程的一部分，为具体的政策决策提供指导。在这里，我们表明，对于SARS-CoV-2病毒的Omicron变体，即使将入住率降低到25%和普遍的口罩要求也不足以防止大规模疫情，因为最近报告的奥地利学生疫苗接种覆盖率约为80%。我们的研究结果表明，控制病毒的传播与现有的疫苗结合NPI是不可行的，在大学环境中，如果存在的学生和教师在校园里是必需的。
英文摘要：
Returning universities to full on-campus operations while the COVID-19 pandemic is ongoing has been a controversial discussion in many countries. The risk of large outbreaks in dense course settings is contrasted by the benefits of in-person teaching. Transmission risk depends on a range of parameters, such as vaccination coverage and efficacy, number of contacts and adoption of non-pharmaceutical intervention measures (NPIs). Due to the generalised academic freedom in Europe, many universities are asked to autonomously decide on and implement intervention measures and regulate on-campus operations. In the context of rapidly changing vaccination coverage and parameters of the virus, universities often lack sufficient scientific insight to base these decisions on. To address this problem, we analyse a calibrated, data-driven agent-based simulation of transmission dynamics of 10755 students and 974 faculty members in a medium-sized European university. We use a co-location network reconstructed from student enrollment data and calibrate transmission risk based on outbreak size distributions in education institutions. We focus on actionable interventions that are part of the already existing decision-making process of universities to provide guidance for concrete policy decisions. Here we show that, with the Omicron variant of the SARS-CoV-2 virus, even a reduction to 25% occupancy and universal mask mandates are not enough to prevent large outbreaks given the vaccination coverage of about 80% recently reported for students in Austria. Our results show that controlling the spread of the virus with available vaccines in combination with NPIs is not feasible in the university setting if presence of students and faculty on campus is required.
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