量化激励（不）兼容性：体育案例研究
Quantifying incentive (in)compatibility: A case study from sports
摘要：
对于每一个体育赛事，为参赛者提供适当的激励是一个重要的要求。然而，激励相容性通常被认为是一个全有或全无（二元）的概念，在学术文献中，即，规则被证明是战略证明或容易被操纵。我们的论文旨在通过2022年FIFA世界杯欧洲足球赛的例子，提出一种量化违反这一理论属性的方法。尽管这种竞争被认为是激励不相容的，因为排名较低的国家联盟小组冠军对排名较高的同行的成功感兴趣，但这个问题的严重程度直到现在还没有得到探讨。计算机模拟显示，通过添加一组精心选择的抽奖限制，可以大大减轻坦克的威胁，这提供了一个合理和透明的解决方案，以提高公平性。鼓励体育管理机构考虑我们的调查结果。
英文摘要：
For every sports tournament, it is an important requirement to provide contestants with the appropriate incentives to perform. However, incentive compatibility is usually considered an all or nothing (binary) concept in the academic literature, that is, the rules are proved to be either strategy-proof or vulnerable to manipulation. Our paper aims to present a method for quantifying the violation of this theoretical property through the example of the European Qualifiers for the 2022 FIFA World Cup. Even though that competition is known to be incentive incompatible since lower-ranked Nations League group winners are interested in the success of their higher-ranked peers, the extent of the problem has remained unexplored until now. Computer simulations reveal that the threat of tanking can be substantially mitigated by adding a carefully chosen set of draw restrictions, which offers a justifiable and transparent solution to improve fairness. Sports governing bodies are encouraged to take our findings into account.
机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来，可能存在错误，请以论文正文为准。
