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arXiv 2103.16180cs.LGcs.AI
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一个热带气旋登陆强度、位置和时间的预报

Prediction of Landfall Intensity, Location, and Time of a Tropical Cyclone

IIIT Delhi(德里印度理工学院);University of Delhi(德里大学)

Sandeep Kumar, Koushik Biswas, Ashish Kumar Pandey

摘要:

对热带气旋的强度、登陆位置和时间进行及时、准确的预报,可以大大减少人员和物资的损失。在这篇文章中,我们开发了一个基于长短期记忆的递归神经网络模型来预测一个起源于北印度洋的热带气旋的强度(根据最大持续地面风速),位置(纬度和经度)和登陆时间(在观测期后的小时数)。该模型以气旋路径的位置、气压、海面温度和强度等最佳路径数据作为输入,以时间序列的形式给出气旋过程中某一时段(12 ~ 36小时)的预报结果。例如,使用24小时数据的气旋在其过程中的任何时候,该模型通过预测登陆强度,时间,纬度和经度提供了最先进的结果,平均绝对误差分别为4.24节,4.5小时,0.24度和0.37度,这导致距离登陆位置51.7公里的误差。我们进一步检查了该模型对最近三个破坏性气旋Bulbul,Fani和Gaja的有效性,并取得了比测试数据集更好的结果。

英文摘要:

The prediction of the intensity, location and time of the landfall of a tropical cyclone well advance in time and with high accuracy can reduce human and material loss immensely. In this article, we develop a Long Short-Term memory based Recurrent Neural network model to predict intensity (in terms of maximum sustained surface wind speed), location (latitude and longitude), and time (in hours after the observation period) of the landfall of a tropical cyclone which originates in the North Indian ocean. The model takes as input the best track data of cyclone consisting of its location, pressure, sea surface temperature, and intensity for certain hours (from 12 to 36 hours) anytime during the course of the cyclone as a time series and then provide predictions with high accuracy. For example, using 24 hours data of a cyclone anytime during its course, the model provides state-of-the-art results by predicting landfall intensity, time, latitude, and longitude with a mean absolute error of 4.24 knots, 4.5 hours, 0.24 degree, and 0.37 degree respectively, which resulted in a distance error of 51.7 kilometers from the landfall location. We further check the efficacy of the model on three recent devastating cyclones Bulbul, Fani, and Gaja, and achieved better results than the test dataset.

机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来,可能存在错误,请以论文正文为准。

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