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arXiv 1701.04518cs.LGstat.AP
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用循环神经网络预报热带气旋的快速增强

Towards prediction of rapid intensification in tropical cyclones with recurrent neural networks

Software Foundation(软件基金会)

Rohitash Chandra

摘要:

热带气旋在短时间内急剧增强的问题被称为快速增强。这是热带天气预报面临的主要挑战之一。循环神经网络在解决时间序列问题方面有着广阔的前景,这使得它们适合于快速强化。本文应用循环神经网络对南太平洋和南印度洋热带气旋快速增强个例进行了预报。一个类不平衡的问题,这使得它非常具有挑战性,以实现有前途的性能。提出了一种简单的策略,以包括更多的阳性病例进行检测,其中假阳性率略有改善。建立一个有效的系统的局限性仍然是由于解决快速集约化预测遇到的类不平衡问题的挑战。这激发了使用创新机器学习方法的进一步研究。

英文摘要:

The problem where a tropical cyclone intensifies dramatically within a short period of time is known as rapid intensification. This has been one of the major challenges for tropical weather forecasting. Recurrent neural networks have been promising for time series problems which makes them appropriate for rapid intensification. In this paper, recurrent neural networks are used to predict rapid intensification cases of tropical cyclones from the South Pacific and South Indian Ocean regions. A class imbalanced problem is encountered which makes it very challenging to achieve promising performance. A simple strategy was proposed to include more positive cases for detection where the false positive rate was slightly improved. The limitations of building an efficient system remains due to the challenges of addressing the class imbalance problem encountered for rapid intensification prediction. This motivates further research in using innovative machine learning methods.

机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来,可能存在错误,请以论文正文为准。

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