In this paper, we consider the nonparametric estimation problem of the drift function of stochastic differential equations driven by $α$-stable Lévy motion. First, the Kullback-Leibler divergence between the path probabilities of two stochastic differential equations with different drift functions is optimized. By using the Lagrangian multiplier, the variational formula based on the stationary Fokker-Planck equation is constructed. Then combined with the data information, the empirical distribution is used to replace the stationary density, and the drift function is estimated non-parametrically from the perspective of the process. In the numerical experiment, the different amounts of data and different $α$ values are studied. The experimental results show that the estimation result of the drift function is related to both. When the amount of data increases, the estimation result will be better, and when the $α$ value increases, the estimation result is also better.
One of the fundamental problems in Bayesian statistics is the approximation of the posterior distribution. Gibbs sampler and coordinate ascent variational inference are renownedly utilized approximation techniques that rely on stochastic and deterministic approximations. In this paper, we define fundamental sets of densities frequently used in Bayesian inference. We shall be concerned with the clarification of the two schemes from the set-theoretical point of view. This new way provides an alternative mechanism for analyzing the two schemes endowed with pedagogical insights.
DriftLite: Lightweight Drift Control for Inference-Time Scaling of Diffusion Models
Institute for Computational and Mathematical Engineering, Stanford University（计算与数学工程研究所，斯坦福大学）；Department of Chemistry, Stanford University（化学系，斯坦福大学）；Department of Mathematics, Stanford University（数学系，斯坦福大学）；Center for Computational Mathematics, Flatiron Institute（计算数学中心，Flatiron研究所）
Variational inference uses optimization, rather than integration, to approximate the marginal likelihood, and thereby the posterior, in a Bayesian model. Thanks to advances in computational scalability made in the last decade, variational inference is now the preferred choice for many high-dimensional models and large datasets. This tutorial introduces variational inference from the parametric perspective that dominates these recent developments, in contrast to the mean-field perspective commonly found in other introductory texts.
College of Information and Computer Sciences, University of Massachusetts Amherst（马萨诸塞大学阿默斯特分校信息与计算机科学学院）；Department of Computer Science, Mount Holyoke College（曼荷莲学院计算机科学系）
Variational inference (VI) combined with Bayesian nonlinear filtering produces state-of-the-art results for latent time-series modeling. A body of recent work has focused on sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) and its variants, e.g., forward filtering backward simulation (FFBSi). Although these studies have succeeded, serious problems remain in particle degeneracy and biased gradient estimators. In this paper, we propose Ensemble Kalman Variational Objective (EnKO), a hybrid method of VI and the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF), to infer state space models (SSMs). Our proposed method can efficiently ide…
Variational Inference makes a trade-off between the capacity of the variational family and the tractability of finding an approximate posterior distribution. Instead, Boosting Variational Inference allows practitioners to obtain increasingly good posterior approximations by spending more compute. The main obstacle to widespread adoption of Boosting Variational Inference is the amount of resources necessary to improve over a strong Variational Inference baseline. In our work, we trace this limitation back to the global curvature of the KL-divergence. We characterize how the global curvature imp…
We derive and present explicit algorithms to facilitate streamlined computing for variational inference for models containing higher level random effects. Existing literature, such as Lee and Wand (2016), is such that streamlined variational inference is restricted to mean field variational Bayes algorithms for two-level random effects models. Here we provide the following extensions: (1) explicit Gaussian response mean field variational Bayes algorithms for three-level models, (2) explicit algorithms for the alternative variational message passing approach in the case of two-level and three-l…
Variable selection is a classic problem in statistics. In this paper, we consider a Bayes variable selection problem based on spike-and-slab prior with mixed normal distribution proposed by Ročková and George (2014). Motivated by Ormerod and You (2017, 2023), we use the variational inference and collapsed variational inference method to solve the Bayesian problem instead of MCMC. Like Ormerod and You (2017, 2023), we also explain how the sparsity estimator is induced, and under certain mild assumptions, we also prove the consistent and asymptotic results.
London School of Economics（伦敦政治经济学院）；JP Morgan Chase & Co.（摩根大通公司）
Current variational inference methods for hierarchical Bayesian nonparametric models can neither characterize the correlation structure among latent variables due to the mean-field setting, nor infer the true posterior dimension because of the universal truncation. To overcome these limitations, we propose the conditional and adaptively truncated variational inference method (CATVI) by maximizing the nonparametric evidence lower bound and integrating Monte Carlo into the variational inference framework. CATVI enjoys several advantages over traditional methods, including a smaller divergence be…
Heidelberg Institute for Theoretical Studies gGmbH（海德堡理论研究所）
The Laplace approximation has been one of the workhorses of Bayesian inference. It often delivers good approximations in practice despite the fact that it does not strictly take into account where the volume of posterior density lies. Variational approaches avoid this issue by explicitly minimising the Kullback-Leibler divergence DKL between a postulated posterior and the true (unnormalised) logarithmic posterior. However, they rely on a closed form DKL in order to update the variational parameters. To address this, stochastic versions of variational inference have been devised that approximat…
A key design constraint when implementing Monte Carlo and variational inference algorithms is that it must be possible to cheaply and exactly evaluate the marginal densities of proposal distributions and variational families. This takes many interesting proposals off the table, such as those based on involved simulations or stochastic optimization. This paper broadens the design space, by presenting a framework for applying Monte Carlo and variational inference algorithms when proposal densities cannot be exactly evaluated. Our framework, recursive auxiliary-variable inference (RAVI), instead …
