国际边界应该重新开放吗？旅行限制对COVID-19进口风险的影响
Should international borders re-open? The impact of travel restrictions on COVID-19 importation risk
摘要：
新型冠状病毒病（COVID-19）以前所未有的速度在全球蔓延，在不到三个月的时间内蔓延至200多个国家和地区。作为回应，许多国家政府拒绝来自受病毒影响国家的旅行者入境。虽然多个行业继续因实施干预措施而遭受经济损失，但目前尚不清楚不同的旅行限制是否成功减少了COVID-19的输入。在此，我们开发了一个综合框架，以模拟每日COVID-19输入，并考虑不同的旅行禁令。我们量化的时间效应的限制，并阐明在其他国家的发病率，旅游流量和预期的进口到调查中的国家的数量之间的关系。作为案例研究，我们评估了澳大利亚政府实施的旅行禁令。我们发现，2020年1月至6月期间，澳大利亚的国际旅行禁令使COVID-19输入减少了87. 68%（83. 39 - 91. 35）。所提出的框架可进一步用于深入了解如果边界重新开放，预计会有多少进口。当局在计划分阶段重新开放国际边界时可考虑所提供的信息。
英文摘要：
Novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) has spread across the world at an unprecedented pace, reaching over 200 countries and territories in less than three months. In response, many governments denied entry to travellers arriving from various countries affected by the virus. While several industries continue to experience economic losses due to the imposed interventions, it is unclear whether the different travel restrictions were successful in reducing COVID-19 importations. Here we develop a comprehensive framework to model daily COVID-19 importations, considering different travel bans. We quantify the temporal effects of the restrictions and elucidate the relationship between incidence rates in other countries, travel flows and the expected number of importations into the country under investigation. As a cases study, we evaluate the travel bans enforced by the Australian government. We find that international travel bans in Australia lowered COVID-19 importations by 87.68% (83.39 - 91.35) between January and June 2020. The presented framework can further be used to gain insights into how many importations to expect should borders re-open. Authorities may consider the presented information when planning a phased re-opening of international borders.
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