SARS-CoV-2传播和检疫疲劳：一个理论模型
SARS-CoV-2 spread and quarantine fatigue: a theoretical model
摘要：
于2019冠状病毒病疫情期间，世界各地已实施社区防控措施。然而，尽管政府提出了建议和授权，但在一些地点，流动性仍在逐步增加。这种现象通常被称为“检疫疲劳”。一个多世纪以来，数学模型一直被用来研究疾病传播的动力学。自2019冠状病毒病疫情开始以来，已开发大量模型以研究疫情的不同方面。本研究的目的是设计和探索一个具有检疫疲劳的SARS-CoV-2传播的数学模型。一个确定性模型表示的微分方程系统，易感-感染-感染（SIR）的动力学的基础上，开发。该模型是通过计算机模拟进行探索。所获得的结果表明，在某些情况下，在第一个流行高峰之后，疲劳可以引起第二个高峰。因此，该模型的动态行为表明，疲劳可能促成了2020年至2021年初在世界不同地区观察到的第二个感染者高峰的产生。进行的探索还表明，该模型是敏感的感染率和其他参数有关的传播动力学。开发的模型相对简单，在现实世界中进行准确的预测有重要的局限性。然而，我们的研究强调了在管理当前的COVID-19大流行以及未来可能由其他病原体引起的大流行时考虑检疫疲劳的重要性。
英文摘要：
During the COVID-19 pandemic, community containment measures have been implemented in different parts of the world. However, despite government recommendations and mandates, a progressive increase in mobility was observed in several sites. This phenomenon is often referred to as "quarantine fatigue". Mathematical models have been used for more than a century to study the dynamics of diseases spread. Since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, a large number of models have been developed to investigate different aspects of the pandemic. The aim of the present work has been to design and explore a mathematical model of SARS-CoV-2 spread with quarantine fatigue. A deterministic model represented by a system of differential equations, based on Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) dynamics, was developed. The model was explored by means of computational simulations. The results obtained show that, in some scenarios, after a first prevalence peak, fatigue can cause a second peak. Thus, the dynamic behavior of the model suggests that fatigue may have contributed to the production of the second peak of infected people observed in different parts of the world between 2020 and early 2021. The explorations performed also showed that the model is sensitive to infection rate and other parameters related to propagation dynamics. The developed model is relatively simple and has important limitations for performing accurate predictions in the real world. However, our study highlights the importance of considering quarantine fatigue in the management of the current COVID-19 pandemic, as well as of possible future pandemics caused by other pathogens.
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