The coronal mass ejections (CMEs) from the Sun are known for their space weather and geomagnetic consequences. Among all CMEs, so-called radio-loud (RL) and halo CMEs are considered the most energetic in the sense that they are usually faster and wider than the general population of CMEs. Hence the study of RL and halo CMEs has become important and the prediction of their occurrence rate in a future cycle will give a warning in advance. In the present paper, the occurrence rates of RL and halo CMEs in solar cycle (SC) 25 are predicted. For this, we obtained good correlations between the numbers of RL and halo CMEs in each year and the yearly mean sunspot numbers in the previous two cycles. The predicted values of sunspot numbers in SC 25 by NOAA/NASA were considered as representative indices and the corresponding numbers of RL and halo CMEs have been determined using linear relations. Our results show that the maximum number of RL and halo CMEs will be around 39 $/pm$ 3 and 45 $/pm$ 4, respectively. Removing backside events, a set of front-side events was also considered separately and the front-side events alone in SC 25 are predicted again. The peak values of front-side RL and halo events have been estimated to be around 31 $/pm$ 3 and 29 $/pm$ 3 respectively. These results are discussed in comparison with the predicted values of sunspots by different authors.
Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) originate from closed magnetic field regions on the Sun, which are active regions and quiescent filament regions. The energetic populations such as halo CMEs, CMEs associated with magnetic clouds, geoeffective CMEs, CMEs associated with solar energetic particles and interplanetary type II radio bursts, and shock-driving CMEs have been found to originate from sunspot regions. The CME and flare occurrence rates are found to be correlated with the sunspot number, but the correlations are significantly weaker during the maximum phase compared to the rise and declining…
White-light coronagraphic images of Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) observed by SOHO/LASCO C2 have been used to estimate the density jump along the whole front of two CME-driven shocks. The two events are different in that the first one was a "radio-loud" fast CME, while the second one was a "radio quiet" slow CME. From the compression ratios inferred along the shock fronts, we estimated the Alfvén Mach numbers for the general case of an oblique shock. It turns out that the "radio-loud" CME shock is initially super-critical around the shock center, while later on the whole shock becomes sub-crit…
A coronal mass ejection (CME) associated with a type II burst and originating close to the center of the solar disk typically results in a shock at Earth in 2-3 days and hence can be used to predict shock arrival at Earth. However, a significant fraction (about 28%) of such CMEs producing type II bursts were not associated with shocks at Earth. We examined a set of 21 type II bursts observed by the Wind/WAVES experiment at decameter-hectometric (DH) wavelengths that had CME sources very close to the disk center (within a central meridian distance of 30 degrees), but did not have a shock at Ear…
In this paper, we present the multi-wavelength study of a high level of solar activity during which a single active region produced multiple flares/CMEs. According to the sunspot observations, the current solar cycle 24 manifest to be less intense in comparison with the previous recent sunspot cycles. In the course of the current sunspot cycle 24, several small and large sunspot groups have produced various moderate and intense flare/CME events. There are a few active regions with a large number of flaring activities passed across the visible disk of the Sun during 2012-2015. In this study, we…
We have statistically analyzed 379 radio-loud (RL) CMEs and their associated flares during the period 1996 - 2019 covering both solar cycles (SC) 23 and 24. We classified them into two sets of populations based on the observation period: i) 235 events belong to SC 23 (August 1996 - December 2008) and ii) 144 events belong to SC 24 (January 2009 - December 2019). The average residual acceleration of RL CMEs in SC 24 (--17.39 $\pm$ 43.51 m s$^{-2}$) is two times lower than that of the RL CMEs in SC 23 (--8.29 $\pm$ 36.23 m s$^{-2}$), which means that deceleration of RL CMEs in SC 24 is twice as …
The strength of the radial component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF), which is a measure of the Sun's total open flux, is observed to vary by roughly a factor of two over the 11 yr solar cycle. Several recent studies have proposed that the Sun's open flux consists of a constant or "floor" component that dominates at sunspot minimum, and a time-varying component due to coronal mass ejections (CMEs). Here, we point out that CMEs cannot account for the large peaks in the IMF strength which occurred in 2003 and late 2014, and which coincided with peaks in the Sun's equatorial dipole mom…
Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) have become one of the key indicators of solar activity, especially in terms of the consequences of the transient events in the heliosphere. Although CMEs are closely related to the sunspot number (SSN), they are also related to other closed magnetic regions on the Sun such as quiescent filament regions. This makes CMEs a better indicator of solar activity. While sunspots mainly represent the toroidal component of solar magnetism, quiescent filaments (and hence CMEs associated with them) connect the toroidal and poloidal components via the rush-to-the-pole (RTTP) …
We have statistically analyzed a set of 115 low frequency (Deca- Hectometer wavelengths range) type II and type III bursts associated with major Solar Energetic Particle (SEP: Ep > 10 MeV) events and their solar causes such as solar flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs) observed from 1997 to 2014. We classified them into two sets of events based on the duration of the associated solar flares:75 impulsive flares (duration < 60 min) and 40 gradual flares (duration > 60 min).The impulsive flare-associated SEP events (Rt = 989.23 min: 2.86 days) are short lived and they quickly reach their peak…
Similar to the Sun, other stars shed mass and magnetic flux via ubiquitous quasi-steady wind and episodic stellar coronal mass ejections (CMEs). We investigate the mass loss rate via solar wind and CMEs as a function of solar magnetic variability represented in terms of sunspot number and solar X-ray background luminosity. We estimate the contribution of CMEs to the total solar wind mass flux in the ecliptic and beyond, and its variation over different phases of the solar activity cycles. The study exploits the number of sunspots observed, coronagraphic observations of CMEs near the Sun by SOH…
We present a statistical analysis of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) imaged by the Heliospheric Imager (HI) instruments aboard NASAs twin-spacecraft STEREO mission between April 2007 and August 2017 for STEREO-A and between April 2007 and September 2014 for STEREO-B. The analysis exploits a catalogue that was generated within the FP7 HELCATS project. Here, we focus on the observational characteristics of CMEs imaged in the heliosphere by the inner (HI-1) cameras. More specifically, in this paper we present distributions of the basic observational parameters - namely occurrence frequency, central…
The corona at solar minimum generally differs greatly from that during active times. We discuss the current Cycle 23/24 minimum from the point of view of the occurrence of flares and CMEs (Coronal Mass Ejections). By comparison with the previous minimum, the flare/CME ratio diminished by almost an order of magnitude. This suggests that the environmental effect in flare/CME association differed in the sense that the Cycle 23/24 minimum corona was relatively easy to disrupt.
We report on the state of the corona over the minimum and ascending phases of Solar Cycle (SC) 25 on the basis of the temporal evolutions of its radiance and of the properties of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) as determined from white-light observations performed by the SOHO/LASCO-C2 coronagraph. These evolutions are further compared with those determined during the past two SC. The integrated radiance of the K-corona and the occurrence rate of CMEs closely track the indices/proxies of solar activity, prominently the total magnetic field for the radiance and the radio flux for the CMEs, all und…
We analyze radio bursts observed in events with interacting/non-interacting CMEs that produced major SEPs (Ip $>$ 10 MeV) fromApril 1997 to December 2014.We compare properties of meter (m), deca-hectometer (DH) type II as well as DH type III bursts, and time lags for interacting-CME-associated (IC) events and non-interacting-CME-associated (NIC) events. About 70\% of radio emissions were observed in events of both types from meters to kilometers. We found high correlations between the drift rates and mid-frequencies of type II radio bursts calculated as the mean geometric between their startin…
We report on the radio-emission characteristics of 222 interplanetary (IP) shocks. A surprisingly large fraction of the IP shocks (~34%) is radio quiet (i.e., the shocks lacked type II radio bursts). The CMEs associated with the RQ shocks are generally slow (average speed ~535 km/s) and only ~40% of the CMEs were halos. The corresponding numbers for CMEs associated with radio loud (RL) shocks are 1237 km/s and 72%, respectively. The RQ shocks are also accompanied by lower peak soft X-ray flux. CMEs associated with RQ (RL) shocks are generally accelerating (decelerating). The kinematics of CMEs…
Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are tightly related to filament eruptions and usually are their continuation in the upper solar corona. It is common practice to divide all observed CMEs into fast and slow ones. Fast CMEs usually follow eruptive events in active regions near big sunspot groups and associated with major solar flares. Slow CMEs are more related to eruptions of quiescent prominences located far from active regions. We analyze ten eruptive events with particular attention to the events on 2013 September 29 and on 2016 January 26, one of which was associated with a fast CME, while ano…
We report on a comparison between space weather events that occurred around the two peaks in the sunspot number (SSN) during solar cycle 24. The two SSN peaks occurred in the years 2012 and 2014. Even though SSN was larger during the second peak, we find that there were more space weather events during the first peak. The space weather events we considered are large solar energetic particle (SEP) events and major geomagnetic storms associated with coronal mass ejections (CMEs). We also considered interplanetary type II radio bursts, which are indicative of energetic CMEs driving shocks. When w…
We study the association of solar flares with coronal mass ejections (CMEs) during the deep, extended solar minimum of 2007-2009, using extreme-ultraviolet (EUV) and white-light (coronagraph) images from the {\it Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory} (STEREO). Although all of the fast (v $>$ 900 km s$^{-1}$) {\it and} wide ($θ>$ 100$\arcdeg$) CMEs are associated with a flare that is at least identified in GOES soft X-ray light curves, a majority of flares with relatively high X-ray intensity for the deep solar minimum (e.g. $\gtrsim$1 \times 10^{-6}$ W m$^{-2}$ or C1) are not associated wit…
We report on a remarkable finding that the halo coronal mass ejections (CMEs) in cycle 24 are more abundant than in cycle 23, although the sunspot number in cycle 24 has dropped by about 40%. We also find that the distribution of halo-CME source locations is different in cycle 24: the longitude distribution of halos is much flatter with the number of halos originating at central meridian distance >/=60 degrees twice as large as that in cycle 23. On the other hand, the average speed and the associated soft X-ray flare size are the same in the two cycles, suggesting that the ambient medium into …
According to Gnevyshev-Ohl (G-O) rule an odd-numbered cycle is stronger than its preceding even-numbered cycle. In the modern time the cycle pair (22, 23) violated this rule. By using the combined Greenwich Photoheliographic Results (GPR) and Solar Optical Observing Network (SOON) sunspot group data during the period 1874-2015, and Debrecen Photoheliographic Data (DPD) of sunspot groups during the period 1974-2015, here we have found that the solar cycle pair (22, 23) violated the G-O rule because, besides during cycle 23 a large deficiency of small sunspot groups in both the northern and the …
Solar active regions (ARs) that produce strong flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are known to have a relatively high non-potentiality and are characterized by delta-sunspots and sheared magnetic structures. In this study, we conduct a series of flux emergence simulations from the convection zone to the corona and model four types of active regions that have been observationally suggested to cause strong flares, namely the Spot-Spot, Spot-Satellite, Quadrupole, and Inter-AR cases. As a result, we confirm that delta-spot formation is due to the complex geometry and interaction of emerging…
Waiting time distributions of solar flares and {\sl coronal mass ejections (CMEs)} exhibit power law-like distribution functions with slopes in the range of $α_τ \approx 1.4-3.2$, as observed in annual data sets during 4 solar cycles (1974-2012). We find a close correlation between the waiting time power law slope $α_τ$ and the {\sl sunspot number (SN)}, i.e., $α_τ$ = 1.38 + 0.01 $\times$ SN. The waiting time distribution can be fitted with a Pareto-type function of the form $N(τ) = N_0$ $(τ_0 + τ)^{-α_τ}$, where the offset $τ_0$ depends on the instrumental sensitivity, the detection threshold…
We investigate the relationship between the monthly averaged maximal speeds of coronal mass ejections (CMEs), international sunspot number (ISSN), and the geomagnetic Dst and Ap indices covering the 1996-2008 time interval (solar cycle 23). Our new findings are as follows. (1) There is a noteworthy relationship between monthly averaged maximum CME speeds and sunspot numbers, Ap and Dst indices. Various peculiarities in the monthly Dst index are correlated better with the fine structures in the CME speed profile than that in the ISSN data. (2) Unlike the sunspot numbers, the CME speed index doe…
Smoothed monthly mean coronal mass ejection (CME) parameters (speed, acceleration, central position angle, angular width, mass and kinetic energy) for Cycle 23 are cross-analyzed, showing a high correlation between most of them. The CME acceleration (a) is found to be highly correlated with the reciprocal of its mass (M), with a correlation coefficient r = 0:899. The force (Ma) to drive a CME is found to be well anti-correlated with the sunspot number (Rz), r = -0.750. The relationships between CME parameters and Rz can be well described by an integral response model with a decay time scale of…
In this article, the association of solar radio type IV bursts with active region location on the Sun is studied for the solar cycle 24. The active regions associated with moving and stationary type IV bursts are categorised as close to disk center and far from disk center regions based on their location on the solar surface (i.e, $\leq 45^{\circ}$ or $\geq 45^{\circ}$, respectively). The location of the active regions associated with type IV bursts accompanied with coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are also studied. We found that $\approx 30-40 \%$ of the active regions are located far from disk …
The space weather is extremely mild during solar cycle 24: the number of major geomagnetic storms and high-energy solar energetic particle events are at the lowest since the dawn of the space age. Solar wind measurements at 1 AU using Wind and ACE instruments have shown that there is a significant drop in the density, magnetic field, total pressure, and Alfven speed in the inner heliosphere as a result of the low solar activity. The drop in large space weather events is disproportionately high because the number of energetic coronal mass ejections that cause these events has not decreased sign…
In this study we present a statistical analysis of 53 fast Earth-directed halo CMEs observed by the SOHO/LASCO instrument during the period Jan. 2009-Sep. 2015, and we use this CME sample to test the capabilities of a Sun-to-Earth prediction scheme for CME geoeffectiveness. First, we investigate the CME association with other solar activity features by means of multi-instrument observations of the solar magnetic and plasma properties. Second, using coronagraphic images to derive the CME kinematical properties at 0.1 AU, we propagate the events to 1 AU by means of the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model. Simu…
Solar cycle (SC) 24 has come to an end by the end of 2019, providing information on two full cycles to understand the manifestations of SC 24, the smallest cycle in the Space Age that has resulted in a weak heliospheric state indicated by the reduced pressure. The backreaction of the heliospheric state is to make the coronal mass ejections (CMEs) appear physically bigger than in SC 23, but their magnetic content has been diluted resulting in a lower geoeffectiveness. The heliospheric magnetic field is also lower in SC 24, leading to the dearth of high-energy solar energetic particle (SEP) even…
We compare the properties of halo coronal mass ejections (CMEs) that originate close to the limb (within a central meridian distance range of 60 to 90 deg) during solar cycles 23 and 24 to quantify the effect of the heliospheric state on CME properties. There are 44 and 38 limb halos in the cycles 23 and 24, respectively. Normalized to the cycle-averaged total sunspot number, there are 42 percent more limb halos in cycle 24. Although the limb halos as a population is very fast (average speed 1464 km s-1), cycle-24 halos are slower by 26 percent than the cycle-23 halos. We introduce a new param…
During solar minimum, the Sun is relatively inactive with few sunspots observed on the solar surface. Consequently, we observe a smaller number of highly energetic events such as solar flares or coronal mass ejections (CMEs), which are often associated with active regions on the photosphere. Nonetheless, our magnetofrictional simulations during the minimum period suggest that the solar corona is still dynamically evolving in response to the large-scale shearing velocities on the solar surface. The non-potential evolution of the corona leads to the accumulation of magnetic free energy and helic…
Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are one of the most energetic explosions in the solar atmosphere, and their occurrence rates exhibit obvious solar cycle dependence with more events taking place around solar maximum. Composition of interplanetary CMEs (ICMEs), referring to the charge states and elemental abundances of ions, opens an important avenue to investigate CMEs. In this paper, we conduct a statistical study on the charge states of five elements (Mg, Fe, Si, C, and O) and the relative abundances of six elements (Mg/O, Fe/O, Si/O, C/O, Ne/O, and He/O) within ICMEs from 1998 to 2011, and fin…
In this article, we compare the properties of two coronal mass ejections (CMEs) that show similar source region characteristics but different evolutionary behavior in the later phases. We discuss the two events in terms of their near-Sun characteristics, interplanetary evolution, and geo-effectiveness. We carefully analyzed the initiation and propagation parameters of these events to establish the precise CME-ICME connection and their near-Earth consequences. The First event was associated with poor geo-magentic storm disturbance index (Dst $\approx$-20 nT) while the second event is associated…
We present a comprehensive analysis of a particular class of coronal mass ejection (CME) event, called streamer-blowout CME (SBOs). The events are characterized by a gradual swelling of the overlying streamer, lasting hours to days, followed by a slow, wide CME, generally exhibiting a 3-part structure, which leaves the streamer significantly depleted in its wake. We identify 909 SBO events in the LASCO/C2 observations between 1996 and 2015. The average blowout lasts for 40.5 hours but the evacuation can take days for some events. SBO-CMEs are wider and more massive than the average CME. Their …
Proceeding from close association between solar eruptions, flares, shock waves, and CMEs, we analyze relations between bursts at 35 GHz recorded with the Nobeyama Radio Polarimeters during 1990-2012, on the one hand, and solar energetic particle (SEP) events, on the other hand. Most west to moderately east solar events with strong bursts at 35 GHz produced near-Earth proton enhancements of J(E > 100 MeV) > 1 pfu. The strongest and hardest those caused ground level enhancements. There is a general, although scattered, correspondence between proton enhancements and peak fluxes at 35 GHz, especia…
Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) with angular width $> 30^{\circ}$ have been observed to occur at a higher rate during solar cycle 24 compared to cycle 23, per sunspot number. This result is supported by data from three independent databases constructed using Large Angle and Spectrometric Coronagraph Experiment (LASCO) coronagraph images, two employing automated detection techniques and one compiled manually by human observers. According to the two databases that cover a larger field of view, the enhanced CME rate actually began shortly after the cycle 23 polar field reversal, in 2004, when the p…
The long term solar activity dependencies of ionospheric F$_1$ and F$_2$ regions' critical frequencies ($f_0F_1$ and $f_0F_2$) are analyzed for the last four solar cycles (1976--2015). We show that the ionospheric F$_1$ and F$_2$ regions have different solar activity dependencies in terms of the sunspot group (SG) numbers: F$_1$ region critical frequency ($f_0F_1$) peaks at the same time with the small SG numbers, while the $f_0F_2$ reaches its maximum at the same time with the large SG numbers, especially during the solar cycle 23. The observed differences in the sensitivity of ionospheric cr…
Solar flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs), especially the larger ones, emanate from active regions (ARs). With the aim to understand the magnetic properties that govern such flares and eruptions, we systematically survey all flare events with GOES levels of >=M5.0 within 45 deg from disk center between May 2010 and April 2016. These criteria lead to a total of 51 flares from 29 ARs, for which we analyze the observational data obtained by the Solar Dynamics Observatory. More than 80% of the 29 ARs are found to exhibit delta-sunspots and at least three ARs violate Hale's polarity rule. The …
After providing an overview of solar activity as measured by the sunspot number (SSN) and space weather events during solar cycles (SCs) 21-24, we focus on the weak solar activity in SC 24. The weak solar activity reduces the number of energetic eruptions from the Sun and hence the number of space weather events. The speeds of coronal mass ejections (CMEs), interplanetary (IP) shocks, and the background solar wind all declined in SC 24. One of the main heliospheric consequences of weak solar activity is the reduced total (magnetic + gas) pressure, magnetic field strength, and Alfvén speed. The…
The spatial inhomogeneity of the distribution of coronal mass ejection (CME) occurrences in the solar atmosphere could provide a tool to estimate the longitudinal position of the most probable CME-capable active regions in the Sun. The anomaly in the longitudinal distribution of active regions themselves is often referred to as active longitude (AL). In order to reveal the connection between the AL and CME spatial occurrences, here we investigate the morphological properties of active regions. The first morphological property studied is the separateness parameter, which is able to characterize…
We examine the cradle-to-grave magnetic evolution of 10 bipolar ephemeral active regions (BEARs) in solar coronal holes, especially aspects of the magnetic evolution leading to each of 43 obvious microflare events. The data are from Solar Dynamics Observatory: 211 A coronal EUV images and line-of-sight photospheric magnetograms. We find evidence that (1) each microflare event is a magnetic explosion that results in a miniature flare arcade astride the polarity inversion line (PIL) of the explosive lobe of the BEARs anemone magnetic field; (2) relative to the BEAR's emerged flux-rope omega loop…
We report on the properties of halo coronal mass ejections (HCMEs) in solar cycles 23 and 24. We compare the HCMEs properties between the corresponding phases (rise, maximum, and declining) in cycles 23 and 24 in addition to comparing those between the whole cycles. Despite the significant decline in the sunspot number (SSN) in cycle 24, which dropped by 46% with respect to cycle 23, the abundance of HCMEs is similar in the two cycles. The HCME rate per SSN is 44% higher in cycle 24. In the maximum phase, cycle-24 rate normalized to SSN increased by 127% while the SSN dropped by 43%. The sourc…
We analyze H-alpha images, soft X-ray profiles, magnetograms, extreme ultra-violet images and radio observations of two homologous flare events (M1.4/1N and M9.6/2B) on 20 November 2003 in the active region NOAA 10501 and study properties of reconnection between twisted filament systems, energy release and associated launch of coronal mass ejections (CMEs). During both events twisted filaments observed in H-alpha approached each other and initiated the flare processes. However, the second event showed the formation of cusp as the filaments interacted. The rotation of sunspots of opposite polar…
Solar radio bursts (SRBs) are the signatures of various phenomena that happen in the solar corona and interplanetary medium (IPM). In this article, we have studied the occurrence of Type III bursts and their association with the Sunspot number. This study confirms that the occurrence of Type III bursts correlates well with the Sunspot number. Further, using the data obtained using the e-CALLISTO network, we have investigated the drift rates of isolated Type III bursts and the duration of the group of Type III bursts. Since Type II, Type III, and Type IV bursts are signatures of solar flares an…
This paper presents an overview of results obtained during the CAWSES II period on the short term variability of the Sun and how it affects the near Earth space environment. CAWSES II was planned to examine the behavior of the solar terrestrial system as the solar activity climbed to its maximum phase in solar cycle 24. After a deep minimum following cycle 23, the Sun climbed to a very weak maximum in terms of the sunspot number in cycle 24 (MiniMax24), so many of the results presented here refer to this weak activity in comparison with cycle 23. The short term variability that has immediate c…
We report on the parallel analysis of the periodic behaviour of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) based on 21 years [1996 -- 2016] of observations with the SOHO/LASCO--C2 coronagraph, solar flares, prominences, and several proxies of solar activity. We consider values of the rates globally and whenever possible, distinguish solar hemispheres and solar cycles 23 and 24. Periodicities are investigated using both frequency (periodogram) and time-frequency (wavelet) analysis. We find that these different processes, in addition to following the $\approx$11-year Solar Cycle, exhibit diverse statisticall…
The most intense solar energetic particle events are produced by coronal mass ejections (CMEs) accompanied by intense type II radio bursts below 15 MHz. Understanding where these type II bursts are generated relative to an erupting CME would reveal important details of particle acceleration near the Sun, but the emission cannot be imaged on Earth due to distortion from its ionosphere. Here, a technique is introduced to identify the likely source location of the emission by comparing the observed dynamic spectrum observed from a single spacecraft against synthetic spectra made from hypothesized…
Solar Cycle Variation of Sustained Gamma Ray Emission from the Sun
NASA Goddard Space Flight Center（美国宇航局戈达德太空飞行中心）；The Catholic University of America（天主教大学）；Institute of Experimental and Applied Physics, Kiel University（基尔大学实验与应用物理研究所）
The Sun is the major source of heat and light in our solar system. The solar cycle is the 11-year cycle of solar activity that can be determined by the rise and fall in the numbers and surface area of sunspots. Solar activity is associated with several factors including radio flux, solar irradiance, magnetic field, solar flares, coronal mass ejections, and solar cycles. This study attempts to determine the Sun's activity specifically for the coronal mass ejection, its trend during solar cycle 23, and its apparent difference. A time series analysis was used to measure the CME data for larger ca…
