投票，还是不投票：关于COVID-19时期竞选活动的流行病学影响
To vote, or not to vote: on the epidemiological impact of electoral campaigns at the time of COVID-19
摘要：
选举对于现代民主的合法性至关重要，而让所有候选人都有可能开展适当的竞选活动，是选举成功提供这种合法性的必要条件。然而，在大流行病期间，竞选活动会加剧疾病传播的风险是存在的，而且是实质性的。在这项工作中，我们估计了选举活动对COVID-19传播的因果影响。利用合理的外源性变化在意大利各地的地方选举的时间表，我们表明，竞选活动之前，后者导致了显着恶化的流行病学情况有关的疾病。我们的研究结果有力地强调了在整个选举过程中采取严格措施以尽量减少其流行病学后果的重要性。
英文摘要：
Elections are crucial for legitimating modern democracies, and giving all candidates the possibility to run a proper electoral campaign is necessary for elections' success in providing such legitimization. Yet, during a pandemic, the risk that electoral campaigns would enhance the spread of the disease exists and is substantive. In this work, we estimate the causal impact of electoral campaigns on the spread of COVID-19. Exploiting plausibly exogenous variation in the schedule of local elections across Italy, we show that the electoral campaign preceding this latter led to a significant worsening of the epidemiological situation related to the disease. Our results strongly highlight the importance of undertaking stringent measures along the entire electoral process to minimize its epidemiological consequences.
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