Ozone Hole的Cosmic Ray驱动机构的指纹
Fingerprints of the Cosmic Ray Driven Mechanism of the Ozone Hole
摘要：
卤代分子的电子诱导反应一直是人们研究的热点。宇宙射线驱动的电子诱导反应（CRE）机制被提出来已经有20多年的历史了。以平流层等效氯浓度和氯浓度强度为变量的CRE方程较好地再现了近40年来平流层O3和温度的观测资料。CRE对南极O3洞和相关平流层冷却的11年周期变化的预测也得到了很好的证实。在南极臭氧洞中测量的臭氧和温度的高度分布提供了令人信服的CRE机制的指纹。定量估计表明，氯离子产生的氯原子可以完全耗尽，甚至过度杀死臭氧的CR峰值极地平流层区域，与观测到的高度分布的最大的南极臭氧洞。在剔除自然CR效应后，南极O3洞自1995年前后以来的隐蔽恢复被清晰地发现，而中纬度地区O3损失的恢复被推迟了≥ 10年。这些结果为CRE机制提供了强有力的证据。如果CR强度保持目前的上升趋势，南极O3洞将在2060年左右恢复到1980年的水平，而中纬度O3层恢复到1980年水平的时间将大大推迟，甚至不会在本世纪末出现。结果表明，CRE机制必须被视为评价O3孔的关键因素。
英文摘要：
There is long research interest in electron-induced reactions of halogenated molecules. It has been two decades since the cosmic-ray (CR) driven electron-induced reaction (CRE) mechanism for the ozone hole formation was proposed. The derived CRE equation with stratospheric equivalent chlorine level and CR intensity as only two variables has well reproduced the observed data of stratospheric O3 and temperatures over the past 40 years. The CRE predictions of 11-year cyclic variations of the Antarctic O3 hole and associated stratospheric cooling have also been well confirmed. Measured altitude profiles of ozone and temperatures in Antarctic ozone holes provide convincing fingerprints of the CRE mechanism. A quantitative estimate indicates that the CRE-produced Cl atoms could completely deplete or even over-kill ozone in the CR-peak polar stratospheric region, consistent with observed altitude profiles of severest Antarctic ozone holes. After removing the natural CR effect, the hidden recovery in the Antarctic O3 hole since around 1995 is clearly discovered, while the recovery of O3 loss at mid-latitudes is being delayed by >=10 years. These results have provided strong evidence of the CRE mechanism. If the CR intensity keeps the current rising trend, the Antarctic O3 hole will return to the 1980 level by around 2060, while the returning of the O3 layer at mid-latitudes to the 1980 level will largely be delayed or will not even occur by the end of this century. The results strongly indicate that the CRE mechanism must be considered as a key factor in evaluating the O3 hole.
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