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arXiv 2103.10936physics.ao-phstat.AP
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使用统计方法和工具预测气象变量

Forecasting of Meteorological variables using statistical methods and tools

Emmanuel Agbo

摘要:

了解统计方法在预测气候参数方面的作用的必要性不能被轻视。本研究深入回顾了Mann-Kendall(M-K)趋势检验的不同变化以及如何应用它们,回归技术(简单和多重),太阳辐射的Angstrom-Prescott模型等,然后将其中一些应用于从尼日利亚气象局(NiMet)获得的数据,并应用Python编程语言和Wolfram Mathematica等工具。结果表明,在计算的p值< 0.05(特性层)之后,卡拉巴尔的最高周遭温度显著增加(Z=2.52)。季节性M-K检验也适用于旱季和雨季,在计算的p值< 0.05后,发现两者均增加(分别为Z=3.23和Z=4.04)。用偏微分方程确定了大气中水汽含量与其它气象参数的关系,并与相关矩阵的结果进行了比较,结果表明大气中的水蒸汽含量对水汽含量的变化有很大的影响。采用多元线性回归方法,在计算的放射性活度与预测的放射性活度之间的残差最小的情况下,给出了一个准确的预测该区域放射性活度的模型。

英文摘要:

The need to understand the role of statistical methods for the forecasting of climatological parameters cannot be trivialized. This study gives an in depth review on the different variations of the Mann-Kendall (M-K) trend test and how they can be applied, regression techniques (Simple and Multiple), the Angstrom-Prescott model for solar radiation, etc. The study then goes ahead to apply some of them with data obtained from the Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NiMet), and applying tools like the python programming language and Wolfram Mathematica. Results show that the maximum ambient temperature for Calabar is increasing (Z=2.52) significantly after the calculated p-value < 0.05 (significant level). The seasonal M-K test was also applied for the dry and wet seasons and both were found to be increasing (Z=3.23 and Z=4.04 respectively) after their calculated p-values < 0.05. The relationship between refractivity and other meteorological parameters relating to it was discerned using partial differential equations giving the gradient of each with refractivity; this was compared with results from the correlation matrix to show that the water vapour contents of the atmosphere contributes significantly to the variation of refractivity. Multiple linear regression has also been adopted to give an accurate model for the prediction of refractivity in the region after the residual error between the calculated refractivity and predicted refractivity was minimal.

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