In this paper we introduce a novel approach to distributionally robust optimal control that supports online learning of the ambiguity set, while guaranteeing recursive feasibility. We introduce conic representable risk, which is useful to derive tractable reformulations of distributionally robust optimization problems. Specifically, to illustrate the techniques introduced, we utilize risk measures constructed based on data-driven ambiguity sets, constraining the second moment of the random disturbance. In the optimal control setting, such moment-based risk measures lead to tractable optimal controllers when combined with affine disturbance feedback. Assumptions on the constraints are given that guarantee recursive feasibility. The resulting control scheme acts as a robust controller when little data is available and converges to the certainty equivalent controller when a large sample count implies high confidence in the estimated second moment. This is illustrated in a numerical experiment.
A data-driven MPC scheme is proposed to safely control constrained stochastic linear systems using distributionally robust optimization. Distributionally robust constraints based on the Wasserstein metric are imposed to bound the state constraint violations in the presence of process disturbance. A feedback control law is solved to guarantee that the predicted states comply with constraints. The stochastic constraints are satisfied with regard to the worst-case distribution within the Wasserstein ball centered at their discrete empirical probability distribution. The resulting distributionally…
We present a case study applying learning-based distributionally robust model predictive control to highway motion planning under stochastic uncertainty of the lane change behavior of surrounding road users. The dynamics of road users are modelled using Markov jump systems, in which the switching variable describes the desired lane of the vehicle under consideration and the continuous state describes the pose and velocity of the vehicles. We assume the switching probabilities of the underlying Markov chain to be unknown. As the vehicle is observed and thus, samples from the Markov chain are dr…
We present a novel data-driven distributionally robust Model Predictive Control formulation for unknown discrete-time linear time-invariant systems affected by unknown and possibly unbounded additive uncertainties. We use off-line collected data and an approximate model of the dynamics to formulate a finite-horizon optimization problem. To account for both the uncertainty related to the dynamics and the disturbance acting on the system, we resort to a distributionally robust formulation that optimizes the cost expectation while satisfying Conditional Value-at-Risk constraints with respect to t…
We present a learning model predictive control (MPC) scheme for chance-constrained Markov jump systems with unknown switching probabilities. Using samples of the underlying Markov chain, ambiguity sets of transition probabilities are estimated which include the true conditional probability distributions with high probability. These sets are updated online and used to formulate a time-varying, risk-averse optimal control problem. We prove recursive feasibility of the resulting MPC scheme and show that the original chance constraints remain satisfied at every time step. Furthermore, we show that…
This paper studies the problem of distributionally robust model predictive control (MPC) using total variation distance ambiguity sets. For a discrete-time linear system with additive disturbances, we provide a conditional value-at-risk reformulation of the MPC optimization problem that is distributionally robust in the expected cost and chance constraints. The distributionally robust chance constraint is over-approximated as a simpler, tightened chance constraint that reduces the computational burden. Numerical experiments support our results on probabilistic guarantees and computational effi…
Distributionally Robust Planning with $\mathcal{L}_1$ Adaptive Control
National Polytechnic University of Armenia（亚美尼亚国立理工大学）；University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign（伊利诺伊大学厄巴纳-香槟分校）；American University of Armenia（亚美尼亚美国大学）；University of Michigan（密歇根大学）
Model predictive control (MPC) is an effective approach to control multivariable dynamic systems with constraints. Most real dynamic models are however affected by plant-model mismatch and process uncertainties, which can lead to closed-loop performance deterioration and constraint violations. Methods such as stochastic MPC (SMPC) have been proposed to alleviate these problems; however, the resulting closed-loop state trajectory might still significantly violate the prescribed constraints if the real system deviates from the assumed disturbance distributions made during the controller design. …
We study stochastic optimization problems with chance and risk constraints, where in the latter, risk is quantified in terms of the conditional value-at-risk (CVaR). We consider the distributionally robust versions of these problems, where the constraints are required to hold for a family of distributions constructed from the observed realizations of the uncertainty via the Wasserstein distance. Our main results establish that if the samples are drawn independently from an underlying distribution and the problems satisfy suitable technical assumptions, then the optimal value and optimizers of …
In order to prevent the potential frequency instability due to the high Power Electronics (PE) penetration under an unintentional islanding event, this paper presents a novel microgrid scheduling model which explicitly models the system frequency dynamics as well as the long/short term uncertainty associated with renewable energy resources and load. Synthetic Inertia (SI) control is applied to regulating the active power output of the Inverter-Based Generators (IBGs) to support the post-islanding frequency evaluation. The uncertainty associated with the noncritical load shedding is explicitly …
Safety is a critical issue in learning-based robotic and autonomous systems as learned information about their environments is often unreliable and inaccurate. In this paper, we propose a risk-aware motion control tool that is robust against errors in learned distributional information about obstacles moving with unknown dynamics. The salient feature of our model predictive control (MPC) method is its capability of limiting the risk of unsafety even when the true distribution deviates from the distribution estimated by Gaussian process (GP) regression, within an ambiguity set. Unfortunately, t…
In this work, we propose a distributionally robust stochastic model predictive control (DR-SMPC) algorithm to address the problem of two-sided chance constrained discrete-time linear system corrupted by additive noise. The prevalent mechanism to cope with two-sided chance constraints is the so-called risk allocation approach, which conservatively approximates the two-sided chance constraints with two single chance constraints by applying the Boole's inequality. In this proposed DR-SMPC framework, an exact tractable second-order cone (SOC) approach is adopted to abstract the two-sided chance co…
We present a data-driven model predictive control scheme for chance-constrained Markovian switching systems with unknown switching probabilities. Using samples of the underlying Markov chain, ambiguity sets of transition probabilities are estimated which include the true conditional probability distributions with high probability. These sets are updated online and used to formulate a time-varying, risk-averse optimal control problem. We prove recursive feasibility of the resulting MPC scheme and show that the original chance constraints remain satisfied at every time step. Furthermore, we show…
In light of a reliable and resilient power system under extreme weather and natural disasters, networked microgrids integrating local renewable resources have been adopted extensively to supply demands when the main utility experiences blackouts. However, the stochastic nature of renewables and unpredictable contingencies are difficult to address with the deterministic energy management framework. The paper proposes a comprehensive distributionally robust joint chance-constrained (DR-JCC) framework that incorporates microgrid island, power flow, distributed batteries and voltage control constr…
This paper considers a security constrained dispatch problem involving generation and line contingencies in the presence of the renewable generation. The uncertainty due to renewables is modeled using joint chance-constraint and the mismatch caused by contingencies and renewables are handled using reserves. We consider a distributionally robust approach to solve the chance-constrained program. We assume that samples of the uncertainty are available. Using them, we construct a set of distributions, termed ambiguity set, containing all distributions that are close to the empirical distribution u…
This paper is motivated by addressing open questions in distributionally robust chance-constrained programs (DRCCP) using the popular Wasserstein ambiguity sets. Specifically, the computational techniques for those programs typically place restrictive assumptions on the constraint functions and the size of the Wasserstein ambiguity sets is often set using costly cross-validation (CV) procedures or conservative measure concentration bounds. In contrast, we propose a practical DRCCP algorithm using kernel maximum mean discrepancy (MMD) ambiguity sets, which we term MMD-DRCCP, to treat general no…
Seoul National University（首尔国立大学）；Automation and Systems Research Institute（自动化与系统研究院）
In this paper, a risk-aware motion control scheme is considered for mobile robots to avoid randomly moving obstacles when the true probability distribution of uncertainty is unknown. We propose a novel model predictive control (MPC) method for limiting the risk of unsafety even when the true distribution of the obstacles' movements deviates, within an ambiguity set, from the empirical distribution obtained using a limited amount of sample data. By choosing the ambiguity set as a statistical ball with its radius measured by the Wasserstein metric, we achieve a probabilistic guarantee of the out…
Power systems are shifted from conventional bulk generation toward renewable generation. This trend leads to the frequency security problem due to the decline of system inertia. On the other hand, natural gas-fired units are frequently scheduled to provide operational flexibility due to their fast adjustment ability. The interdependence between power and natural gas systems is thus intensified. In this paper, we study the frequency constrained scheduling problem from the perspective of an integrated electricity-gas system under variable wind power. We propose a distributionally robust (DR) cha…
This paper proposes a tractable distributionally robust chance-constrained conservation voltage reduction (DRCC-CVR) method with enriched data-based ambiguity set in unbalanced three-phase distribution systems. The increasing penetration of distributed renewable energy not only brings clean power but also challenges the voltage regulation and energy-saving performance of CVR by introducing high uncertainties to distribution systems. In most cases, the conventional robust optimization methods for CVR only provide conservative solutions. To better consider the impacts of load and PV generation u…
This paper considers a risk-constrained infinite-horizon optimal control problem and proposes to solve it in an iterative manner. Each iteration of the algorithm generates a trajectory from the starting point to the target equilibrium state by implementing a distributionally robust risk-constrained model predictive control (MPC) scheme. At each iteration, a set of safe states (that satisfy the risk-constraint with high probability) and a certain number of independent and identically distributed samples of the uncertainty governing the risk constraint are available. These states and samples are…
Seoul National University（首尔国立大学）；Automation and Systems Research Institute（自动化与系统研究所）
This paper proposes a novel safety specification tool, called the distributionally robust risk map (DR-risk map), for a mobile robot operating in a learning-enabled environment. Given the robot's position, the map aims to reliably assess the conditional value-at-risk (CVaR) of collision with obstacles whose movements are inferred by Gaussian process regression (GPR). Unfortunately, the inferred distribution is subject to errors, making it difficult to accurately evaluate the CVaR of collision. To overcome this challenge, this tool measures the risk under the worst-case distribution in a so-cal…
A high number of electric vehicles (EVs) in the transportation sector necessitates an advanced scheduling framework for e-mobility ecosystem operation as a whole in order to overcome range anxiety and create a viable business model for charging stations (CSs). The framework must account for the stochastic nature of all stakeholders' operations, including EV drivers, CSs, and retailers and their mutual interactions. In this paper, a three-layer joint distributionally robust chance-constrained (DRCC) model is proposed to plan grid-to-vehicle (G2V) and vehicle-to-grid (V2G) operation in day-ahead…
In urban drainage systems (UDS), a proven method for reducing the combined sewer overflow (CSO) pollution is real-time control (RTC) based on model predictive control (MPC). MPC methodologies for RTC of UDSs in the literature rely on the computation of the optimal control strategies based on deterministic rain forecast. However, in reality, uncertainties exist in rainfall forecasts which affect severely accuracy of computing the optimal control strategies. Under this context, this work aims to focus on the uncertainty associated with the rainfall forecasting and its effects. One option is to u…
In this paper, a control scheme is developed based on an input constrained Model Predictive Controller (MPC) and the idea of modifying the reference command to enforce constraints, usual of Reference Governors (RG). The proposed scheme, referred to as the RGMPC, requires optimization for MPC with input constraints for which fast algorithms exist, and can handle (possibly nonlinear) state and input constraints. Conditions are given that ensure recursive feasibility of the RGMPC scheme and finite-time convergence of the modified command to the the desired reference command. Simulation results fo…
The closed-loop performance of model predictive controllers (MPCs) is sensitive to the choice of prediction models, controller formulation, and tuning parameters. However, prediction models are typically optimized for prediction accuracy instead of performance, and MPC tuning is typically done manually to satisfy (probabilistic) constraints. In this work, we demonstrate a general approach for automating the tuning of MPC under uncertainty. In particular, we formulate the automated tuning problem as a constrained black-box optimization problem that can be tackled with derivative-free optimizati…
Learning-based model predictive control (MPC) is an approach designed to reduce the computational cost of MPC. In this paper, a constrained deep neural network (DNN) design is proposed to learn MPC policy for nonlinear systems. Using constrained training of neural networks, MPC constraints are enforced effectively. Furthermore, recursive feasibility and robust stability conditions are derived for the learning-based MPC approach. Additionally, probabilistic feasibility and optimality empirical guarantees are provided for the learned control policy. The proposed algorithm is implemented on the F…
Data-based Distributionally Robust Stochastic Optimal Power Flow, Part II: Case studies
The University of Texas at Dallas（德克萨斯大学达拉斯分校）；The University of Colorado, Boulder（科罗拉多大学博尔德分校）；University of Colorado Boulder（科罗拉多大学博尔德分校）；Tsinghua University（清华大学）
In this paper, we investigate system theoretic properties of transient average constrained economic model predictive control (MPC) without terminal constraints. We show that the optimal open-loop solution passes by the optimal steady-state for consecutive time instants. Using this turnpike property and suitable controllability conditions, we provide closed-loop performance bounds. Furthermore, stability is proved by combining the rotated value function with an input-to-state (ISS) Lyapunov function of an extended state related to the transient average constraints. The results are illustrated w…
We consider the problem of look-ahead economic dispatch (LAED) with uncertain renewable energy generation. The goal of this problem is to minimize the cost of conventional energy generation subject to uncertain operational constraints. The risk of violating these constraints must be below a given threshold for a family of probability distributions with characteristics similar to observed past data or predictions. We present two data-driven approaches based on two novel mathematical reformulations of this distributionally robust decision problem. The first one is a tractable convex program in w…
