We present a meta-algorithm for learning a posterior-inference algorithm for restricted probabilistic programs. Our meta-algorithm takes a training set of probabilistic programs that describe models with observations, and attempts to learn an efficient method for inferring the posterior of a similar program. A key feature of our approach is the use of what we call a white-box inference algorithm that extracts information directly from model descriptions themselves, given as programs. Concretely, our white-box inference algorithm is equipped with multiple neural networks, one for each type of atomic command, and computes an approximate posterior of a given probabilistic program by analysing individual atomic commands in the program using these networks. The parameters of the networks are learnt from a training set by our meta-algorithm. We empirically demonstrate that the learnt inference algorithm generalises well to programs that are new in terms of both parameters and model structures, and report cases where our approach achieves greater test-time efficiency than alternative approaches such as HMC. The overall results show the promise as well as remaining challenges of our approach.
We present a Bayesian approach to machine learning with probabilistic programs. In our approach, training on available data is implemented as inference on a hierarchical model. The posterior distribution of model parameters is then used to \textit{stochastically condition} a complementary model, such that inference on new data yields the same posterior distribution of latent parameters corresponding to the new data as inference on a hierachical model on the combination of both previously available and new data, at a lower computation cost. We frame the approach as a design pattern of probabili…
We introduce the notion of a stochastic probabilistic program and present a reference implementation of a probabilistic programming facility supporting specification of stochastic probabilistic programs and inference in them. Stochastic probabilistic programs allow straightforward specification and efficient inference in models with nuisance parameters, noise, and nondeterminism. We give several examples of stochastic probabilistic programs, and compare the programs with corresponding deterministic probabilistic programs in terms of model specification and inference. We conclude with discussio…
This work offers a broad perspective on probabilistic modeling and inference in light of recent advances in probabilistic programming, in which models are formally expressed in Turing-complete programming languages. We consider a typical workflow and how probabilistic programming languages can help to automate this workflow, especially in the matching of models with inference methods. We focus on two properties of a model that are critical in this matching: its structure---the conditional dependencies between random variables---and its form---the precise mathematical definition of those depend…
Probabilistic programming is a growing area that strives to make statistical analysis more accessible, by separating probabilistic modelling from probabilistic inference. In practice this decoupling is difficult. No single inference algorithm can be used as a probabilistic programming back-end that is simultaneously reliable, efficient, black-box, and general. Probabilistic programming languages often choose a single algorithm to apply to a given problem, thus inheriting its limitations. While substantial work has been done both to formalise probabilistic programming and to improve efficiency …
University of Notre Dame（圣母大学）；Indiana University（印第安纳大学）
It is natural for probabilistic programs to use conditionals to express alternative substructures in models, and loops (recursion) to express repeated substructures in models. Thus, probabilistic programs with conditionals and recursion motivate ongoing interest in efficient and general inference. A factor graph grammar (FGG) generates a set of factor graphs that do not all need to be enumerated in order to perform inference. We provide a semantics-preserving translation from first-order probabilistic programs with conditionals and recursion to FGGs.
University of Massachusetts（马萨诸塞大学）；Massachusetts Institute of Technology（麻省理工学院）
Causal inference can be formalized as Bayesian inference that combines a prior distribution over causal models and likelihoods that account for both observations and interventions. We show that it is possible to implement this approach using a sufficiently expressive probabilistic programming language. Priors are represented using probabilistic programs that generate source code in a domain specific language. Interventions are represented using probabilistic programs that edit this source code to modify the original generative process. This approach makes it straightforward to incorporate data…
Probabilistic programming is a powerful abstraction for statistical machine learning. Applying static analysis methods to probabilistic programs could serve to optimize the learning process, automatically verify properties of models, and improve the programming interface for users. This field of static analysis for probabilistic programming (SAPP) is young and unorganized, consisting of a constellation of techniques with various goals and limitations. The primary aim of this work is to synthesize the major contributions of the SAPP field within an organizing structure and context. We provide t…
Probabilistic programming makes it easy to represent a probabilistic model as a program. Building an individual model, however, is only one step of probabilistic modeling. The broader challenge of probabilistic modeling is in understanding and navigating spaces of alternative models. There is currently no good way to represent these spaces of alternative models, despite their central role. We present an extension of probabilistic programming that lets each program represent a network of interrelated probabilistic models. We give a formal semantics for these multi-model probabilistic programs, …
University of Notre Dame（圣母大学）；Allen Institute for Artificial Intelligence（艾伦人工智能研究所）
We present probabilistic neural programs, a framework for program induction that permits flexible specification of both a computational model and inference algorithm while simultaneously enabling the use of deep neural networks. Probabilistic neural programs combine a computation graph for specifying a neural network with an operator for weighted nondeterministic choice. Thus, a program describes both a collection of decisions as well as the neural network architecture used to make each one. We evaluate our approach on a challenging diagram question answering task where probabilistic neural pr…
Probabilistic modeling enables combining domain knowledge with learning from data, thereby supporting learning from fewer training instances than purely data-driven methods. However, learning probabilistic models is difficult and has not achieved the level of performance of methods such as deep neural networks on many tasks. In this paper, we attempt to address this issue by presenting a method for learning the parameters of a probabilistic program using backpropagation. Our approach opens the possibility to building deep probabilistic programming models that are trained in a similar way to ne…
Probabilistic programs with mixed support (both continuous and discrete latent random variables) commonly appear in many probabilistic programming systems (PPSs). However, the existence of the discrete random variables prohibits many basic gradient-based inference engines, which makes the inference procedure on such models particularly challenging. Existing PPSs either require the user to manually marginalize out the discrete variables or to perform a composing inference by running inference separately on discrete and continuous variables. The former is infeasible in most cases whereas the lat…
Columbia University（哥伦比亚大学）；Utrecht University（乌得勒支大学）
Probabilistic programming is perfectly suited to reliable and transparent data science, as it allows the user to specify their models in a high-level language without worrying about the complexities of how to fit the models. Static analysis of probabilistic programs presents even further opportunities for enabling a high-level style of programming, by automating time-consuming and error-prone tasks. We apply static analysis to probabilistic programs to automate large parts of two crucial model checking methods: Prior Predictive Checks and Simulation-Based Calibration. Our method transforms a p…
We show that the standard computational pipeline of probabilistic programming systems (PPSs) can be inefficient for estimating expectations and introduce the concept of expectation programming to address this. In expectation programming, the aim of the backend inference engine is to directly estimate expected return values of programs, as opposed to approximating their conditional distributions. This distinction, while subtle, allows us to achieve substantial performance improvements over the standard PPS computational pipeline by tailoring computation to the expectation we care about. We real…
Probabilistic programs provide an expressive representation language for generative models. Given a probabilistic program, we are interested in the task of posterior inference: estimating a latent variable given a set of observed variables. Existing techniques for inference in probabilistic programs often require choosing many hyper-parameters, are computationally expensive, and/or only work for restricted classes of programs. Here we formulate inference as masked language modeling: given a program, we generate a supervised dataset of variables and assignments, and randomly mask a subset of th…
Computer Science & Artificial Intelligence Laboratory（计算机科学与人工智能实验室）；Massachusetts Institute of Technology（麻省理工学院）；Department of Brain & Cognitive Sciences（大脑与认知科学系）
Probabilistic techniques are central to data analysis, but different approaches can be difficult to apply, combine, and compare. This paper introduces composable generative population models (CGPMs), a computational abstraction that extends directed graphical models and can be used to describe and compose a broad class of probabilistic data analysis techniques. Examples include hierarchical Bayesian models, multivariate kernel methods, discriminative machine learning, clustering algorithms, dimensionality reduction, and arbitrary probabilistic programs. We also demonstrate the integration of C…
Computer Science & Artificial Intelligence Laboratory（计算机科学与人工智能实验室）；Massachusetts Institute of Technology（麻省理工学院）；Department of Brain & Cognitive Sciences（脑与认知科学系）
This paper introduces the probabilistic module interface, which allows encapsulation of complex probabilistic models with latent variables alongside custom stochastic approximate inference machinery, and provides a platform-agnostic abstraction barrier separating the model internals from the host probabilistic inference system. The interface can be seen as a stochastic generalization of a standard simulation and density interface for probabilistic primitives. We show that sound approximate inference algorithms can be constructed for networks of probabilistic modules, and we demonstrate that th…
We design new visual illusions by finding "adversarial examples" for principled models of human perception -- specifically, for probabilistic models, which treat vision as Bayesian inference. To perform this search efficiently, we design a differentiable probabilistic programming language, whose API exposes MCMC inference as a first-class differentiable function. We demonstrate our method by automatically creating illusions for three features of human vision: color constancy, size constancy, and face perception.
We present new techniques for automatically constructing probabilistic programs for data analysis, interpretation, and prediction. These techniques work with probabilistic domain-specific data modeling languages that capture key properties of a broad class of data generating processes, using Bayesian inference to synthesize probabilistic programs in these modeling languages given observed data. We provide a precise formulation of Bayesian synthesis for automatic data modeling that identifies sufficient conditions for the resulting synthesis procedure to be sound. We also derive a general class…
University of Amsterdam（阿姆斯特丹大学）；University College London（伦敦大学学院）；Alan Turing Institute（艾伦·图灵研究所）；KAIST（韩国科学技术院）；University of British Columbia（不列颠哥伦比亚大学）
This book is a graduate-level introduction to probabilistic programming. It not only provides a thorough background for anyone wishing to use a probabilistic programming system, but also introduces the techniques needed to design and build these systems. It is aimed at people who have an undergraduate-level understanding of either or, ideally, both probabilistic machine learning and programming languages. We start with a discussion of model-based reasoning and explain why conditioning is a foundational computation central to the fields of probabilistic machine learning and artificial intellige…
University of British Columbia（不列颠哥伦比亚大学）；Georgia Institute of Technology（佐治亚理工学院）；University of Oxford（牛津大学）；MILA（蒙特利尔学习算法研究所）
Naive approaches to amortized inference in probabilistic programs with unbounded loops can produce estimators with infinite variance. This is particularly true of importance sampling inference in programs that explicitly include rejection sampling as part of the user-programmed generative procedure. In this paper we develop a new and efficient amortized importance sampling estimator. We prove finite variance of our estimator and empirically demonstrate our method's correctness and efficiency compared to existing alternatives on generative programs containing rejection sampling loops and discus…
University College London（伦敦大学学院）；Cornell University（康奈尔大学）
We present a denotational semantics for higher-order probabilistic programs in terms of linear operators between Banach spaces. Our semantics is rooted in the classical theory of Banach spaces and their tensor products, but bears similarities with the well-known Scott semantics of higher-order programs through the use ordered Banach spaces which allow definitions in terms of fixed points. Being based on a monoidal rather than cartesian closed structure, our semantics effectively treats randomness as a resource.
Ben-Gurion University of the Negev（内盖夫本-古里安大学）；University of Oxford（牛津大学）；KAIST（韩国科学技术院）
We tackle the problem of conditioning probabilistic programs on distributions of observable variables. Probabilistic programs are usually conditioned on samples from the joint data distribution, which we refer to as deterministic conditioning. However, in many real-life scenarios, the observations are given as marginal distributions, summary statistics, or samplers. Conventional probabilistic programming systems lack adequate means for modeling and inference in such scenarios. We propose a generalization of deterministic conditioning to stochastic conditioning, that is, conditioning on the mar…
We introduce a method for using deep neural networks to amortize the cost of inference in models from the family induced by universal probabilistic programming languages, establishing a framework that combines the strengths of probabilistic programming and deep learning methods. We call what we do "compilation of inference" because our method transforms a denotational specification of an inference problem in the form of a probabilistic program written in a universal programming language into a trained neural network denoted in a neural network specification language. When at test time this neu…
This paper introduces a new technique for quantifying the approximation error of a broad class of probabilistic inference programs, including ones based on both variational and Monte Carlo approaches. The key idea is to derive a subjective bound on the symmetrized KL divergence between the distribution achieved by an approximate inference program and its true target distribution. The bound's validity (and subjectivity) rests on the accuracy of two auxiliary probabilistic programs: (i) a "reference" inference program that defines a gold standard of accuracy and (ii) a "meta-inference" program t…
Probabilistic programming languages (PPLs) are powerful modelling tools which allow to formalise our knowledge about the world and reason about its inherent uncertainty. Inference methods used in PPL can be computationally costly due to significant time burden and/or storage requirements; or they can lack theoretical guarantees of convergence and accuracy when applied to large scale graphical models. To this end, we present the Universal Marginaliser (UM), a novel method for amortised inference, in PPL. We show how combining samples drawn from the original probabilistic program prior with an a…
Babylon Health（巴比伦健康）；University of Oxford（牛津大学）；University College London（伦敦大学学院）
We elaborate on using importance sampling for causal reasoning, in particular for counterfactual inference. We show how this can be implemented natively in probabilistic programming. By considering the structure of the counterfactual query, one can significantly optimise the inference process. We also consider design choices to enable further optimisations. We introduce MultiVerse, a probabilistic programming prototype engine for approximate causal reasoning. We provide experimental results and compare with Pyro, an existing probabilistic programming framework with some of causal reasoning too…
We present the Sum-Product Probabilistic Language (SPPL), a new probabilistic programming language that automatically delivers exact solutions to a broad range of probabilistic inference queries. SPPL translates probabilistic programs into sum-product expressions, a new symbolic representation and associated semantic domain that extends standard sum-product networks to support mixed-type distributions, numeric transformations, logical formulas, and pointwise and set-valued constraints. We formalize SPPL via a novel translation strategy from probabilistic programs to sum-product expressions and…
